%20(1).png)
Jerry Rice Jr. stands out as a beacon of professionalism and dedication in his field. With a rich background in football, Jerry has seamlessly transitioned his skills and work ethic from the gridiron to the world of real estate.
DRE #
02026420
.png)
San Francisco's downtown, once dubbed as “the most empty downtown in America,” is witnessing a resurgence of investor interest. The latest move comes from real estate investor Cyrus Sanandaji, founder of Presidio Bay Ventures. Sanandaji has made a significant investment in the heart of the city, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment. Let's dive into the details and explore the broader implications for the Bay Area's real estate market.
Key Takeaways from the Article:
A Deeper Dive: San Francisco's Real Estate LandscapeThe Bay Area's real estate market has always been cyclical. While the condominium market in downtown San Francisco might currently be less desirable due to high prices and HOA fees, surrounding luxury markets remain in high demand. This recent investment by Presidio Bay Ventures might be an early indicator of a shift in market dynamics.
Sanandaji's move is not just a mere investment; it's a statement. It challenges the prevailing narrative and asks us to look beyond the headlines. As he aptly puts it, there's a "major perception and reality disconnect in San Francisco right now." While certain areas face challenges, it's essential not to paint the entire city with the same brush.
Final ThoughtsSan Francisco remains a hub of innovation, culture, and opportunity. Investments like these remind us of the city's resilience and potential. For those looking to invest in or flip properties in the Bay Area, now might be an opportune time to explore the market. As always, assets in this region retain their value, making it a promising venture for discerning investors.
Residents will love this... and if you're keen to discuss more about the Bay Area's real estate trends or are considering making a move, text me. Let's navigate this dynamic market together.
The Bay Area's housing landscape is ever-evolving, and Sausalito is the latest city to find itself in the spotlight. A recent article from Marin Independent Journal has shed light on a lawsuit filed by the nonprofit housing advocacy group, Yes In My Back Yard (YIMBY). The allegations? Sausalito's non-compliance with state-mandated housing targets and potential environmental oversight.
The Allegations at a Glance
The Bigger Picture
Sausalito isn't alone in facing such allegations. Fairfax, Novato, and Belvedere have also been sued over their housing elements. The crux of these lawsuits is the "builder’s remedy," which could prevent cities from using their zoning or general plan standards to reject housing projects that meet specific affordability criteria.
Residents Will Love This... Or Will They?
The housing situation in Sausalito is complex. For instance, the city initially proposed allocating homes to an "underwater patch of eelgrass offshore Dunphy Park." This proposal was later scrapped, but it highlights the challenges cities face in identifying feasible housing sites. Moreover, some property owners have voiced concerns about their properties being included in the city's housing site list without consultation.
Final Thoughts
The Bay Area, including Marin and San Francisco, is a real estate hotspot. While luxury markets are thriving, the need for diverse housing options remains paramount. Sausalito's situation underscores the importance of cities ensuring they meet housing quotas while also addressing environmental and community concerns.
Get Involved
If you're passionate about real estate and want to discuss the implications of this lawsuit further, or if you're looking to invest in the Bay Area, text me.
The Bay Area housing market has witnessed its slowest start to a new year in over a decade. However, as highlighted in a recent SFGate article, there's a gradual uptick, with overbidding numbers even seeing a rise in February 2023.
The Current State of the Market
San Francisco's median home sales took a hit, dropping by 14.5% in February. The preceding months observed the most significant year-over-year median price declines since the 2008-2009 period. The East Bay, while not as affected, still saw a 12% drop in home prices year over year.
Factors Influencing the Market
Several elements have contributed to this year's unique market conditions:
A Market Moving Towards Balance
Despite the challenges, there are silver linings. Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com, suggests that many of the current factors are working in favor of buyers. Homeowners are more inclined to reduce their asking prices this year, and with fewer buyers in the market, those still searching might have a stronger negotiating position.
The spring home-buying season might be slower than usual, but it's indicative of the market "moving back to equilibrium," transitioning from the frenzied market of the past years. Well-located, appropriately priced homes that don't require renovations are still selling quickly, indicating that quality properties remain in high demand.
Final Thoughts
The Bay Area's real estate market is dynamic, and while it's currently experiencing a shift, the region's appeal remains undiminished. Whether you're a buyer or a seller, understanding the market's nuances is crucial.
If you're considering navigating the complexities of the Bay Area housing market or need insights on the current trends, I'm here to assist. Text me, and together, we'll make sense of this ever-evolving landscape.
Marin County is no stranger to luxury homes, but 1 King Mountain Road is truly a gem like no other. Originally listed at a staggering $5.9 million in 2021, this custom-built castle in Lagunitas now graces the market at a significantly reduced price of $2.3 million, as highlighted in a recent SFGate article.
A Home with History and Elevation
Perched at the highest residential elevation in Marin County, this property sprawls across 50 acres, offering panoramic views that are nothing short of breathtaking. But it's not just the views that make this home special. The timber used in its construction tells a tale of its own, salvaged from a barn that once stood on what is now Roy’s Redwoods Preserve in Marin County. For movie buffs, this is the same location where scenes from George Lucas' “Caravan of Courage: An Ewok Adventure” were filmed.
The Vision Behind the Castle
Norman Orr, the visionary behind this unique abode, was only 26 when he embarked on this ambitious project. Purchasing the salvaged redwood for a mere $300, Orr collaborated with an architect and contractor to bring his dream to life. The result? A 2,170-square-foot fantasy home that stands out in every sense. Orr's vision was clear: he didn't want just another house; he wanted something "really unusual."
From its majestic exterior, reminiscent of age-old castles, to its intricate interiors featuring cathedral ceilings, a swirling staircase, and stone walls, every corner of this home is a testament to Orr's vision. The three bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms are designed with unique angles, offering a blend of romance, whimsy, and unparalleled views.
The Castle's Real Estate Journey
After building the home in 1972, Orr sold it in 1991. The property was listed again in 2021 for nearly $6 million. Despite several price reductions, it eventually sold in September 2022 for $3.7 million. Today, the essence of Orr's original vision remains, with modern updates to the kitchen and bathrooms by subsequent owners.
A Bargain Like No Other
Considering its rich history, unique design, and the sheer expanse of land it offers, this listing seems like a steal. The new owner won't just get a custom-made castle; they'll also own two additional 20-acre parcels, surrounded by panoramic views of Point Reyes Peninsula, the North Bay, the East Bay, and San Francisco.
Final Thoughts
Marin County continues to offer some of the most unique and luxurious real estate opportunities in the Bay Area. If you're intrigued by properties like 1 King Mountain Road or are looking for your own slice of paradise in Marin County, I'm here to guide you. Text me, and let's embark on your real estate journey together.
Marin County intimately felt what the rest of the country has been feeling this past quarter; a drastic slow down in sales, sales prices deflating, supply of homes on-market rising, and time on-market to sell homes is increasing. All reflections of a shifting market.
Sales in September '22 were down 32% compared to September '21.
Days on market (time to sell a home) are up 16%.
Months supply of homes on market is UP 30%.
We've been heavily accustomed to a strong sellers market, but recent macro-economic events have swung Marin into a more normalized market comparative to traditional markets all over the country, if not putting power in buyer's hands. If you've been waiting to buy a home, now is seemingly the best time to buy property since '09.
The Condominium Market
Q3 saw 6x total sales at 876k, within 10% of the yearly average sales price of $988k. However, the two previous quarters saw an average of 26x sales per Q, signaling a massive demand decrease. Traditionally, the condominium market is the first to feel the pinch of rising rates as most condominium buyers are significantly more rate sensitive than median & luxury buyers.
The Median Market
Median homes, indicative of Marin's ability to weather any storm, proved themselves once again. 60x sales averaging $2.385M, just slightly down from the yearly average of $2.48M. Expect turn-key homes in median markets to continue to be in high demand.
The Luxury Market
8x luxury estates sold in Q3, averaging $5.97M per home, which is up from the Q1&Q2 average of $5.04M. As typical with 1st-Tier Bay Area real estate markets, there will always be buyer's with capital willing to spend on top of the market properties in Mill Valley.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
With interest rates rising seemingly month after month, and Thanksgiving & The Holidays on the horizon, Q4 doesn’t project well as the turn of this market.
Instead, given the current trends, Q4 should be viewed by buyers as one of the most opportunistic times to buy property in the past decade. Most seller’s opting to try and sell in this market are doing so out of necessity, and it’s worth remembering that most sellers have seen 50-60% appreciation over the past 5 years which allows for significant wiggle room on final sales price should buyers get the opportunity to negotiate rather than a be in a multiple offer situation.
I anticipate the Fall market to run from October 1st through ~ Thanksgiving, then we’ll see a significant lull in listings on the market, sales volume, etc.
Marin County intimately felt what the rest of the country has been feeling this past quarter; a drastic slow down in sales, sales prices deflating, supply of homes on-market rising, and time on-market to sell homes is increasing. All reflections of a shifting market.
Sales in September '22 were down 32% compared to September '21.
Days on market (time to sell a home) are up 16%.
Months supply of homes on market is UP 30%.
We've been heavily accustomed to a strong sellers market, but recent macro-economic events have swung Marin into a more normalized market comparative to traditional markets all over the country, if not putting power in buyer's hands. If you've been waiting to buy a home, now is seemingly the best time to buy property since '09.
The Condominium Market
San Rafael's condo market was one of few market segments across the county that actually grew in Q3. 31x total sales saw the average price up to $735k from $678k last quarter. $/foot up to $619 from $595, and days on market decreasing from 61 to 46.
The Median Market
Similar to other median markets across Marin, demand for turn-key homes remains extremely high in San Rafael. The average price for a home continues to rise: up to $1.66M from from $1.61M after 101 sales in Q3, and days on market remaining steady at ~ 30.
The Luxury Market
San Rafael's luxury market dipped slightly, seeing only 7x sales after averaging 17x per quarter leading into Q3. The average price for a luxury property sits at $3.2M, after climbing as high as $3.7M earlier in the year.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
With interest rates rising seemingly month after month, and Thanksgiving & The Holidays on the horizon, Q4 doesn’t project well as the turn of this market.
Instead, given the current trends, Q4 should be viewed by buyers as one of the most opportunistic times to buy property in the past decade. Most seller’s opting to try and sell in this market are doing so out of necessity, and it’s worth remembering that most sellers have seen 50-60% appreciation over the past 5 years which allows for significant wiggle room on final sales price should buyers get the opportunity to negotiate rather than a be in a multiple offer situation.
I anticipate the Fall market to run from October 1st through ~ Thanksgiving, then we’ll see a significant lull in listings on the market, sales volume, etc.
Q4 was a coup de grâce for what was the obvious turning point of a bull market. The downturn affected each and every pocket in the real estate sector, and few neighborhoods/areas were spared. For the first time in over a decade, the Marin real estate market shifted from a seller's market to a buyer’s market.
There are more deals available in Marin county than I've seen in my entire career. Single-family homes sitting on the market for 90 days plus, condominiums seeing little to no desirability in places, and the luxury market took one of the biggest hits in the nation.
Beautiful turn-key properties are still selling well. There will always be a market for location + turn-key, but anything less than that might need to consider a remodels prior to listing in Spring '23.
The Median Market
The median market in San Anselmo took the biggest hit out of all market segments with prices dropping by $500,000 on average. Traditionally we see a fall-off in the final quarter of the year, but his years’ trends suggest a stronger narrative; buyer affordability and demand are significantly below where they have been in recent years.
With decreasing affordability, buyers are shifting their focus heavily to turn-key. Additional costs after purchase are as undesirable in this market as they ever have been, and it's in a homeowner’s best interests to take the time to update & enhance the home ahead of time to ensure a turn-key property is presented to the market.
Bidding wars still exist for a select few homes presented well and priced in line with the market.
The Luxury Market
The luxury home market in San Anselmo saw little activity in the final quarter of 2022 with only 3 sales recording at ~ $3,000,000, 2 listings pulled from the market, and 2 others still active at the turn of the new year.
Traditionally, San Anselmo has seen an undersupplied luxury market given the relatively small amount of homes in the area. Buyers in these price points have drastically fallen off county-wide, but also are seeing a wealth of options throughout Southern Marin making it challenging to see strong luxury marketing going into 2023.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
Q1 will set the tone for the coming year more so than any other quarter in recent memory. The entirety of the real estate community is sitting on the edge of our seats eagerly hoping for a strong sales quarter and a renewed confidence that we've seen the worst of the correction. With rates already decreasing toward the tail end of Q4, it seems like we've already experienced the bottom of the market.
I could easily see a full year of price stagnancy in 2023, with property values staying mostly level with the prices we're seeing now, down < 10% from the Q1 "22 peaks. Prices across Marin were appreciating at 15-20% year over year during COVID, which was an absolutely absurd pace.
We are now in a buyer's market. There are more opportunities in the market for the savvy than ever before.
November 2021 is a Seller’s Market for San Rafael. There are more people looking to buy than inventory available.
A common trend in Marin, there will be a slow down during holidays and a bounce back in the preceding year and it is likely that the same trend will follow this year.
The desirable listings are all selling well like they have been all year, whereas the homes that are less turn-key and more unique are having a harder time finding buyers willing to pay what owners are looking for. There are buyers in the market right now though, as you can see by the turn-key listings selling at lightning pace.
Total Number of Sales In November: 9
Average Monthly Sales In 2021: 62
Average Condo Sale Price In November: $706,278
Average Sale Price In 2021: $1,523,981
Average Single Family Home Sale Price In November: $1,670,060
Average Sale Price In 2021: $2,073,574
Months of Supply (total active listings/monthly sales rate): 1.14
Average Supply in 2021: 1.08
General sentiment from agents: Hold off listing until 2022
With the interesting movement on the market, it will be best to hold off listing for the rest of the year and wait for the possible comeback next year.
Q4 was a coup de grâce for what was the obvious turning point of a bull market. The downturn affected each and every pocket in the real estate sector, and few neighborhoods/areas were spared. For the first time in over a decade, the Marin real estate market shifted from a seller's market to a buyer’s market.
There are more deals available in Marin county than I've seen in my entire career. Single-family homes sitting on the market for 90 days plus, condominiums seeing little to no desirability in places, and the luxury market took one of the biggest hits in the nation.
Beautiful turn-key properties are still selling well. There will always be a market for location + turn-key, but anything less than that might need to consider a remodel prior to listing in Spring '23.
The Condominium Market
Similar to surrounding markets, Sausalito's condominium market mostly fell off a cliff in Q4 with a rising interest rate environment affecting affordability. The average price for a condo dropped by $160,000. Condo buyers are rate-conscious, making this market segment highly susceptive to immediate turns when rates rise.
While the average price of a condominium went unchanged, the sheer lack of sales volume is indicative of Bay Area real estate desirability as a whole. Sellers will need to meet buyer expectations in order to achieve a successful sale. Luckily, most Sausalito owners (81%+) have owned since 2020 or before with significant equity reserves to tap into should a sale be an immediate need. Offering a turn-key, the updated unit is the fastest way to sell in a recessive market.
The Median Market
The Sausalito median home market performed well in the face of rising interest rates in Q4, with 8 sales recording at a higher $/foot than we’ve been seeing all year. While the average price for a home dropped by ~ $500,000, price per foot is traditionally the best indicator to assess the market quarter over quarter. Median homes were selling for $1,348/foot in Q4 compared to $1,215 throughout all of 2022, highlighting that buyers are still willing to pay what sellers have been asking for the right properties.
Given the median market is typically undersupplied, securing a home for < $2,5000,000 in Sausalito is a tall order, giving leverage to homeowners trying to sell for top dollar.
The Luxury Market
The luxury market for a home in Sausalito, unfortunately, saw a massive decline in Q4, with average prices dropping by almost $1,250,000 compared to the rest of the year. Although only 2 sales were recorded compared to 11 all year, the unspoken data point missed here is the sheer number of homes that didn't sell or were pulled from the market.
The Bay Area's luxury market as a whole plummeted in Q3&4 as macroeconomic conditions wreaked havoc on the real estate market. One of the biggest drivers for luxury home sales has traditionally been proximity to San Francisco, however the drastic decline in office desirability heightened WFH culture, and an increase in cost-of-borrowed capital has deterred high-price point buyers from pulling the trigger.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
Q1 will set the tone for the coming year more so than any other quarter in recent memory. The entirety of the real estate community is sitting on the edge of our seats eagerly hoping for a strong sales quarter and a renewed confidence that we've seen the worst of the correction. With rates already decreasing toward the tail end of Q4, it seems like we've already experienced the bottom of the market.
I could easily see a full year of price stagnancy in 2023, with property values staying mostly level with the prices we're seeing now, down < 10% from the Q1 "22 peaks. Prices across Marin were appreciating at 15-20% year over year during COVID, which was an absolutely absurd pace.
We are now in a buyer's market. There are more opportunities in the market for the savvy than ever before.
Q4 was a coup de grâce for what was the obvious turning point of a bull market. The downturn affected each and every pocket in the real estate sector, and few neighborhoods/areas were spared. For the first time in over a decade, the Marin real estate market shifted from a seller's market to a buyer’s market.
There are more deals available in Marin county than I've seen in my entire career. Single-family homes sitting on the market for 90 days plus, condominiums seeing little to no desirability in places, and the luxury market took one of the biggest hits in the nation.
Beautiful turn-key properties are still selling well. There will always be a market for location + turn-key, but anything less than that might need to consider a remodels prior to listing in Spring '23.
The Condominium Market
The condominium market in Mill Valley performed well in Q4 considering the obvious desirability swing. Condominiums are usually the first micro-pocket of the real estate market to be effective in downward trends, as entry-level buyers are the most rate conscious. HOA fees become a burden, and certain HOA communities with high fees become almost unattainable.
However, Q4 showed a strong rebound from the floor of the market with 11 total sales selling above a $1m average each. Although it took an additional two weeks per sale, I'm sure sellers were happy to get their units sold.
Expect a similarly positioned market in Q1 of '23.
The Median Market
Although there was a slight dip in price in Q4, the Mill Valley median market is still one of the best-performing markets in the Bay Area, if not the country. Mill Valley's desirability hit all-time highs in the early days of the pandemic due to its proximity to San Francisco coupled with its natural beauty.
With roughly a quarter of this year’s sales closing in Q4 at an average of $2,447,000, there were still obvious signs of desirability no matter the macro-market conditions. Homes were still selling in under a month on average, a state that not many other markets can match.
With such low inventory at any given time combine with seemingly peak demand, I would anticipate Q1 to look very similar to last year.
The Luxury Market
The luxury market was massively impacted in Q4, which is typical of luxury markets in downturns. The average price for a luxury property in Mill Valley dropped by $800,000 with 9 homes selling significantly below the 2022 average.
However, with an average of only 38 days on market, it's safe to assume there is still a significantly strong demand for luxury homes in Mill Valley.
With no impending changes to corporate culture and San Francisco companies minimizing their office footprint, expect to see more executives seeking long-term solutions to their housing situation outside of the city. Mill Valley is positioned well to continue to attract affluent buyers.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
Q1 will set the tone for the coming year more so than any other quarter in recent memory. The entirety of the real estate community is sitting on the edge of our seats eagerly hoping for a strong sales quarter and a renewed confidence that we've seen the worst of the correction. With rates already decreasing toward the tail end of Q4, it seems like we've already experienced the bottom of the market.
I could easily see a full year of price stagnancy in 2023, with property values staying mostly level with the prices we're seeing now, down < 10% from the Q1 "22 peaks. Prices across Marin were appreciating at 15-20% year over year during COVID, which was an absolutely absurd pace.
We are now in a buyer's market. There are more opportunities in the market for the savvy than ever before.
After a statistically insane few years, the tail end of Q2 saw massive change in the real estate industry. Macro-economic events played a major role in the financial stability of all markets, real estate included, but none more significantly than interest rates essentially doubling in just a handful of months.
Mill Valley, and most of Southern Marin has seen property value gains in excess of 20% year over year since 2019, an insatiable growth curve.
With inflation running rampant & rates projected to rise at least 2x more before the end of 2022, the writing is seemingly on the wall that the real estate market will follow both the stock & crypto markets with significant price corrections. Luckily, this pocket of The Bay is so highly sought after, demand should offset value reduction.
The Condominium Market
Only 8 sales in all of Q2 says it all. What we’re seeing in the condominium market toward the end of Q2 was a buyer pool that had drastically lost buying power. Buyers in this price range are massively rate conscious, and it’s likely the first time they’ve ever seen interest rates above 6% in their lifetimes. Psychologically, this is probably the biggest hurdle that all homes for sale in this price range will face.
The Median Market
The median/trade-up market hasn't statistically been affected, yet. The trade up market is typically that first jump up from the starter home market, and typically what we call the Median Market in SF & Marin. Sellers here are just starting to feel the effect of the entry-level market losing steam. With entry level homes having a harder time finding a buyer, it’s putting a strain on people's ability to trade up to an SFH.
The Luxury Market
We’ve seen a luxury boom all across SF & Marin over the past 12-18 months with some luxury markets up 50% percent in just a handful of years. Clients in these price points are less affected by macroeconomic events and tend to transact out of want rather than need. The luxury market stands to be significantly less affected than the median or condominium markets. But don't expect the same appreciation moving forward.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
I would anticipate a similar market to the one we're currently experiencing for the next quarter; 6-7% rates, an entry-level market reeling for stability, and a mostly flat median market.
While I wouldn't expect to see single family home values to drop at all, I wouldn't expect them to rise, either. Demand is still insatiably high for the lifestyle Mill Valley provides, and there is still plenty of cash and equity in the Bay Area for residents to buy-sell property.
I think we will find 'the bottom' once the Russia-Ukraine situation has a definitive and positive plan for moving forward, oil markets steady, and U.S. inflation is under control. Unfortunately, I don't see those 3 things all happening in Q3.
Q4 was a coup de grâce for what was the obvious turning point of a bull market. The downturn affected each and every pocket in the real estate sector, and few neighborhoods/areas were spared. For the first time in over a decade, the Marin real estate market shifted from a seller's market to a buyer’s market.
There are more deals available in Marin county than I've seen in my entire careSingle-familymily homes sitting on the market for 90 days plus, condominiums seeing little to no desirability in places, and the luxury market took one of the biggest hits in the nation.
Beautiful turn-key properties are still selling well. There will always be a market for location + turn-key, but anything less than that might need to consider remodels prior to listing in Spring '23.
The Condominium Market
The Larkspur condo market has been mostly non-existent since the pandemic boom we saw in 20/21. 3 sales were recorded in Q4 after only 5 sales in the previous 3 quarters of the year. The average price for a condominium dropped by 100k to $515,000, while the $/foot remained the same which implies the 3 sales were smaller units than what was sold previously.
Given the low supply of properties coupled with the relatively low cost of entry, the condominium market in Larkspur will always have buyer attention.
Updated condos will sell better than anything less-than turnkey. Tip; Get the HOA to approve a renovation and package that approval with your listing; buyers will know they can remodel & will start imagining their dream design while in the unit, even if you don't complete the remodel.
The Median Market
Median homes in Larkspur are still selling well despite the challenging rate environment that really took a stranglehold on Q4. 1/3 of the year’s sales were recorded in Q4, which to me implies buyers capitalized on the downward trending market.
Buyers have been waiting for prices to correct for years in Southern Marin, however, fewer buyers in the market/fewer multiple-offer situations seem to have been enough of a catalyst. The median price for a home in Larkspur went unchanged in Q4 at $2,800,000, while the $/foot actually increased, signaling demand is still strong.
The Luxury Market
The luxury home market in Larkspur saw little activity in the final quarter of 2022 with only 1 sale recording at $5,600,000, 2 listings pulled from the market, and another still active at the turn of the new year.
Traditionally, Larkspur has seen an undersupplied luxury market given the relatively small amount of homes in the area. Buyers in these price points have drastically fallen off county-wide, but also are seeing a wealth of options throughout Southern Marin making it challenging to see strong luxury marketing going into 2023.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
Q1 will set the tone for the coming year more so than any other quarter in recent memory. The entirety of the real estate community is sitting on the edge of our seats eagerly hoping for a strong sales quarter and a renewed confidence that we've seen the worst of the correction. With rates already decreasing toward the tail end of Q4, it seems like we've already experienced the bottom of the market.
I could easily see a full year of price stagnancy in 2023, with property values staying mostly level with the prices we're seeing now, down < 10% from the Q1 "22 peaks. Prices across Marin were appreciating at 15-20% year over year during COVID, which was an absolutely absurd pace.
We are now in a buyer's market. There are more opportunities in the market for the savvy than ever before.
After a statistically insane few years, the tail end of Q2 saw massive change in the real estate industry. Macro-economic events played a major role in the financial stability of all markets, real estate included, but none more significantly than interest rates essentially doubling in just a handful of months.
San Rafael, and most of Marin has seen property value gains in excess of 15% year over year since 2019, an insatiable growth curve.
With inflation running rampant & rates projected to rise at least 2x more before the end of 2022, the writing is seemingly on the wall that the real estate market will follow both the stock & crypto markets with significant price corrections. Luckily, this pocket of The Bay is so highly sought after, demand should offset value reduction.
The Condominium Market
Condominiums sold extremely well in Q2 contrary to what we’ve been seeing in the condominium market; a buyer pool that had drastically lost buying power. Buyers in this price range are massively rate conscious, and it’s likely the first time they’ve ever seen interest rates above 6% in their lifetimes. Psychologically, this is probably the biggest hurdle that all homes for sale in this price range will face.
The Median Market
The median/trade-up market hasn't statistically been affected, yet. The trade up market is typically that first jump up from the starter home market, and typically what we call the Median Market in SF & Marin. Sellers here are just starting to feel the effect of the entry-level market losing steam. With entry level homes having a harder time finding a buyer, it’s putting a strain on people's ability to trade up to an SFH.
The Luxury Market
We’ve seen a luxury boom all across SF & Marin over the past 12-18 months with some luxury markets up 50% percent in just a handful of years. Clients in these price points are less affected by macroeconomic events and tend to transact out of want rather than need. The luxury market stands to be significantly less affected than the median or condominium markets. But don't expect the same appreciation moving forward.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
I would anticipate a similar market to the one we're currently experiencing for the next quarter; 6-7% rates, an entry-level market reeling for stability, and a mostly flat median market.
While I wouldn't expect to see single family home values to drop at all, I wouldn't expect them to rise, either. Demand is still insatiably high for the lifestyle San Rafael provides, and there is still plenty of cash and equity in the Bay Area for residents to buy-sell property.
I think we will find 'the bottom' once the Russia-Ukraine situation has a definitive and positive plan for moving forward, oil markets steady, and U.S. inflation is under control. Unfortunately, I don't see those 3 things all happening in Q3.
After a statistically insane few years, the tail end of Q2 saw massive change in the real estate industry. Macro-economic events played a major role in the financial stability of all markets, real estate included, but none more significantly than interest rates essentially doubling in a few of months.
The Northside of SF, and SF in general, has seen value gains in excess of 15% Y-O-Y since '19. Q2 was no different; massive value jumps across the board.
With inflation running rampant & rates projected to rise at least 2x more before the end of 2022, the writing is seemingly on the wall that the real estate market will follow both the stock & crypto markets with significant price corrections. Luckily, this pocket of the city is so highly sought after, demand should offset value reduction.
The Condominium Market
Condominiums sold well in Q2 contrary to what we’ve been seeing in the overall condominium market; a buyer pool that had drastically lost buying power. Buyers in this price range are massively rate conscious, and it’s likely the first time they’ve ever seen interest rates above 6% in their lifetimes. Psychologically, this is probably the biggest hurdle that all homes for sale in this price range will face.
The Median Market
The trade-up market is typically that first jump up from the starter home market, and typically what we call the Median Market in SF. With seller’s of entry level homes having a harder time finding a buyer, it’s putting a strain on their ability to buy their next home. Given the price point, the median market here functions more closely with surrounding areas luxury markets; less affected by macro-events.
The Luxury Market
We’ve seen a luxury boom all across SF & Marin over the past 12-18 months with some luxury markets up 50% percent in just a handful of years. Clients in these price points are less affected by macroeconomic events and tend to transact out of want rather than need. The luxury market stands to be significantly less affected than the median or condominium markets. But don't expect the same appreciation moving forward.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
I would anticipate a similar market to the one we're currently experiencing for the next quarter; 6-7% rates, an entry-level market reeling for stability, and a mostly flat median market (contrary to Q2 data).
While I wouldn't expect to see single family home values to drop at all, I wouldn't expect them to rise, either. Demand is still insatiably high for the lifestyle these neighborhoods provide, and there is still plenty of cash and equity in the Bay Area for residents to buy-sell property.
I think we will find 'the bottom' once the Russia-Ukraine situation has a definitive and positive plan for moving forward, oil markets steady, and U.S. inflation is under control. Unfortunately, I don't see those 3 things all happening in Q3.
San Francisco endured one of its most challenging sales quarters of recent record in Q3 of 2022. Sales are drastically down with only 1382 total sales compared to 1979 in Q3 ‘21; aka 31%.
The average price in SF (all property types) was $1,572,000 in 06/01, and is down to $1,360,000 as of 10/01, signaling the correction from a strong seller's market to somewhat more of a regular market.
Typical real estate markets across the U.S. act very similarly to the one we are experiencing today; ~ 6 months of inventory available, properties taking closer to a month to sell, and buyers have the more ability to negotiate prices & terms.
If you’ve been hoping for a more favorable market to get a deal on the buying side, this is the best opportunity that we’ve seen since 2009.
The Condominium Market
The condominium market on the Northside was one of few San Francisco pockets that actually grew in Q3; the Average price jumped from $1.71M to $2.15M, with significantly fewer total sales than in previous quarters. This is a function of location, location, and location. In depressed markets, buyers value location more than ever.
The Median Market
With only 3 median house sales across the entire Northside, it's hard to correlate sales data. 3x sales averaged $4.3M, compared to the typical median value of $5.2M we've seen in quarters past.
The Luxury Market
Similar to the median market, only 3x sales recorded for luxury properties in Q3. Although the average price for a luxury estate has dipped from $11.4M to $9.3M in recent months, there are buyers out their for top-of-the-market properties.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
With interest rates rising seemingly month after month, and Thanksgiving & The Holidays on the horizon, Q4 doesn’t project well as the turn of this market.
Instead, given the current trends, Q4 should be viewed by buyers as one of the most opportunistic times to buy property in the past decade. Most seller’s opting to try and sell in this market are doing so out of necessity, and it’s worth remembering that most sellers have seen 50-60% appreciation over the past 5 years which allows for significant wiggle room on final sales price should buyers get the opportunity to negotiate rather than a be in a multiple offer situation.
I anticipate the Fall market to run from October 1st through ~ Thanksgiving, then we’ll see a significant lull in listings on the market, sales volume, etc.
The Northside of San Francisco got pummeled in Q4 with prices being slashed across all market segments. The condominium market was down 200k on average, the median single-family market down 850k, and the luxury market down 2.5M. Only 29 sales across all property types closed & the unspoken data not represented here are the 98 listings that either didn't sell in Q4 or were taken off the market due to a lack of interest.
This might be the biggest dip in desirability in demand for the most historically desirable districts in San Francisco. The only other demand swing I have seen of similar magnitude was for the condominium market in downtown SF during the early days of the pandemic.
While buyers may seem out of the market, any given property can sell quickly if presented well.
The Condominium Market
It's safe to say, no one wanted a condominium in Q4. with barely 1/8 of the year’s sales landing in the 4th quarter, buyer demand drastically fell off after continual rate hikes and unrealistic seller expectations.
Given the condominium market is the first to feel the effects of rate hikes, you often see buyer demand fall off a cliff. That was highly evident in the Northside of San Francisco. Buildings with higher HOA fees saw almost zero demand in Q4. Of the properties that sold similar to the early days of the pandemic; views, outdoor space, and parking were sought out.
With so many listings being pulled in Q4, expect to see the majority come back this Spring with a new price & tapered seller expectation. Once sellers can meet the market pricing, expect to see a flurry of sales.
The Median Market
Unfortunately for single-family properties across the Northside of SF, homes seldom sold in Q4. 3 sales accounted for the entirety of market activity in Q4, with 10 properties either still active at the turn of the new year, or pulled off the market due to a lack of interest.
The avg. price dropped by ~$850k in Q4. Given the small subset of homes that fit in the median category (avg. sale price +/- $1M), this data is somewhat skewed. This market is massively undersupplied and notoriously content with more days on market than the city average. Homeowners know the value of their assets, and there is a location like the Northside.
With fluctuating demand, it's strongly advised sellers do everything they can to create a beautiful turn-key experience for buyers.
The Luxury Market
Similar to the median, the luxury market across the Northside of SF saw a decline in sales activity in Q4. The average sale price for a luxury estate dropped by $2,500,000, from 7.8M to 5.3M. Demand for luxury estates in San Francisco has seen a steady decline since the beginning of the pandemic market, but few quarters saw as drastic a swing as the one previous.
While buyers for these homes often aren't influenced by rates, savvy buyers will always leverage capital & the cost of capital has increased. San Francisco's attractiveness to luxury price point buyers has also taken a massive hit; corporations downsizing & opting for remote work has left C-level exec's assessing their need to be centrally located.
While the market will surely rebound, 'when' is anyone's guess.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
Although Q4 seems doom & gloom, the relative lack of sales data across all market segments makes it hard to project a similarly poor-performing quarter. All previously listed properties will more than likely still be seeking a sale, and with rates already trending downward, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a surge of transactions in Q1.
Sellers will need to meet the market price with their expectations. Now that buyers have stomached the rate increases for the better part of 2 quarters, coupled with the shift to rates trending down, expect to see a flurry of market activity for people trying to time 'the bottom.'
If you've been on the fence, now is the time to jump. There might not be a more opportunistic time as buyers currently hold all the cards in any given negotiation.
Q4 in Kentfield
Q1 will set the tone for the coming year more so than any other quarter in recent memory. The entirety of the real estate community is sitting on the edge of our seats eagerly hoping for a strong sales quarter and a renewed confidence that we've seen the worst of the correction. With rates already decreasing toward the tail end of Q4, it seems like we've already experienced the bottom of the market.
I could easily see a full year of price stagnancy in 2023, with property values staying mostly level with the prices we're seeing now, down < 10% from the Q1 "22 peaks. Prices across Marin were appreciating at 15-20% year over year during COVID, which was an absolutely absurd pace.
We are now in a buyer's market. There are more opportunities in the market for the savvy than ever before.
The Median Market
The median market in Kentfield took a hit in Q4 with prices dropping by $600,000 on average. Traditionally we see a fall-off in the final quarter of the year, but his years’ trends suggest a stronger narrative; buyer affordability and demand are significantly below where they have been in recent years. The price per foot buyers is willing to pay for homes dropped from $1,139/foot to $894/foot.
With decreasing affordability, buyers are shifting their focus heavily to turn-key. Additional costs after purchase as undesirable in this market as they ever have been, and it's in a homeowner’s best interests to take the time to update & enhance their properties ahead of time to ensure a turn-key property is presented to the market.
The Luxury Market
The luxury market for a home in Kentfield, unfortunately, got pummeled in Q4, with prices dropping by almost $2,800,000 compared to the yearly average in 2022. Although only 2 sales were recorded in Q4 compared to 8 all year, the unspoken data point missed here is the sheer number of homes that didn't sell or were pulled from the market. It took almost 2 months longer to sell a luxury home last quarter, too.
The Bay Area's luxury market as a whole plummeted in Q3&4 as macroeconomic conditions wreaked havoc on the real estate market. One of the biggest drivers for luxury home sales has traditionally been proximity to San Francisco, but the drastic decline in office desirability, heightened WFH culture, and an increase on cost-of--borrowed capital has deterred buyers from pulling the trigger.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
Q1 will set the tone for the coming year more so than any other quarter in recent memory. The entirety of the real estate community is sitting on the edge of our seats eagerly hoping for a strong sales quarter and a renewed confidence that we've seen the worst of the correction. With rates already decreasing toward the tail end of Q4, it seems like we've already experienced the bottom of the market.
I could easily see a full year of price stagnancy in 2023, with property values staying mostly level with the prices we're seeing now, down < 10% from the Q1 "22 peaks. Prices across Marin were appreciating at 15-20% year over year during COVID, which was an absolutely absurd pace.
We are now in a buyer's market. There are more opportunities in the market for the savvy than ever before.
The Richmond District had another challenging quarter with all market segments taking a hit. The condominium market saw only 17 sales (~35 per quarter in a regular market) & median single-family homes were down nearly $275,000 per sale.
The dip in demand seen in Q4 is following a similar trend we saw as rates began to increase toward the end of Q2 and throughout Q3. Buyers at lower to median price points are the most rate conscious, and the drastic swing in affordability is massively affecting the market. Of the few luxury properties that sold, prices remained mostly consistent with 2022 as a whole.
As we know, any given property can sell quickly if presented well, however, the seller's expectations will need to drop in order to achieve a successful sale.
The Condominium Market
The condominium market saw 17 sales in Q4, a far cry from the 35-40 we've been accustomed to seeing in regular markets leading up to today. While prices remained mostly steady at $1,210,000 (~100k drop from Q3), the time it takes to sell a unit is steadily increasing.
The biggest statistical drop off for this market segment was the price per foot buyers were willing to pay, dipping below $900/foot for the first time since 2019.
With condominium buyers being the first to be affected by rate increases, it's not farfetched to think that the Richmond District actually faired quite well considering recent macroeconomic challenges. There are plenty of buyers willing to pay a fair price for a home in this neighborhood.
The Median Market
The median market in the Richmond District took the biggest hit out of all market segments with prices dropping by $200,000 on average. Traditionally we see a fall-off in the final quarter of the year, but his years’ trends suggest a stronger narrative; buyer affordability and demand are significantly below where they have been in recent years.
With decreasing affordability, buyers are shifting their focus heavily to turn-key. Additional costs after purchase are as undesirable in this market as they ever have been, and it's in a homeowner’s best interests to take the time to update & enhance their properties ahead of time to ensure a turn-key property is presented to the market.
Bidding wars still exist for a select few homes presented well and priced in line with the market.
The Luxury Market
The luxury market in The Richmond District ($1M+ above the median) saw an average price drop of $400,000 in Q4, after an already notable dip between Q3 and the early part of 2022.
However, homeowners should seek solace in the fact the average $/foot didn't change at all quarter over quarter, meaning buyers are still valuing properties roughly the same; pending size.
Given the general trend of a significant fall-off in Q4 around most market segments in San Francisco, The Richmond District faired quite well in recent months.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
Although Q4 seems doom & gloom, the relative lack of sales data across all market segments makes it hard to project a similarly poor-performing quarter. All previously listed properties will more than likely still be seeking a sale, and with rates already trending downward, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a surge of transactions in Q1.
Sellers will need to meet the market price with their expectations. Now that buyers have stomached the rate increases for the better part of 2 quarters, coupled with the shift to rates trending down, expect to see a flurry of market activity for people trying to time 'the bottom.'
If you've been on the fence, now is the time to jump. There might not be a more opportunistic time as buyers currently hold all the cards in any given negotiation.
The Northside of San Francisco is a real estate market like few others on earth. The most desirable neighborhoods in one of the most desirable cities in the country seem to create that bubble within a bubble effect. Q1 picked up right where it left off after a record-breaking 2021.
It now costs $1,750,000 to enter the condominium market between North Beach, Russian Hill, Cow Hollow & Marina.
The median market took an aggressive turn for the worst, trending down from a $5M average in '21 to $4.2M (pending type of house, size, obviously).
The luxury market (homes $1M above the median) saw 3x sales above $5.8M, all taking less than 2 weeks to sell. Demand remains sky high for Northside homes.
The Condominium Market
It now costs north of $1,750,000 to own a condo on the Northside. Prices keep climbing despite signs of macro-market slow down. The demand for condos actually increased in Q1, averaging just 25 days on market for property to move, and almost $1,300/foot.
The Median Market
For the purposes of defining the line between the median market & the luxury market, $1,000,000 above or below the median at the time of this report is considered the market for a median home, whereas anything $1M above or greater tends to correlate better to the luxury market.
The median single family home market dipped in Q1, with more than half the number of total sales last year happening, at almost $1,000,000 below where homes were selling last year. Price per foot didn't dip as heavily as average sales price, indicating demand remained high, homes were just smaller in size.
Framed by supply issues - there just aren’t many median single families in the Northside neighborhoods - The Northside median market will always be a low-supply, high-demand (in theory) market pocket.
The Luxury Market
The nuances of the luxury market will be forever interesting in San Francisco.
One year you see an average of 8 figures for a luxury property, the next, a $5,000,000 price drop.
One year it takes three months to sell a home, the next, barely 2 weeks.
Bottom line, there is always a buyer for a luxury property in this market, and there will always be major fluctuations based on the homes available at any given time.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
With interest rates on the rise and the macro Bay Area feeling the pinch, it's logical to think Northside SF neighborhoods will see buyers more hesitant to spend what they've been spending these past few years.
While true, this pocket of San Francisco tends to be the most protected from macro events. Real estate here is so low in supply, and all it takes is a cheap face-lift to serve a turn-key property on a silver platter to willing and able buyers, and turn-key here historically sells quickly in any market.
I anticipate the median condo market will be affected most over the next quarter, beginning the trend toward a declining real estate market with 6 rate hikes on the horizon between now and Q4 2023. However, I don’t necessarily think we’ll see falling prices, just a falling growth rate.
Richmond District real estate continues to trend upward. 2021 was one of the strongest real estate years on record, and Q1 of '22 mostly held pace.
The condominium market $/foot increased over the first quarter of the year after a supply of generally smaller (total sqft) units were available for sale over the first quarter, resulting in a slightly lower average sale value, but higher $/foot.
The median single family market mostly kept pace with '21; 32 sales averaging just shy of $2.2M, and taking 3 weeks or less to sell.
The luxury market was met with a healthy buyer appetite after the only two listings managed to sell within 2 weeks of hitting the market, averaging $3.8M.
Demand remains high for the district and should remain strong throughout the Summer.
The Condominium Market
While the average price dropped, price per foot rose in Q1, indicating demand in the area is still on the rise. A tidbit worth noting is the majority of the condominiums sold in Q1 were on the smaller side; high $/foot, lower median price. Demand has been consistently high for turn-key condominiums with recent updates.
With 23 sales in Q1, Richmond’s supply of available properties has been mostly consistent for the past 24 months. Expect to see another ~ 25 beautiful listings available throughout Q2 as we head into the Summer months.
The Median Market
Typical for all single family home pockets in San Francisco, the median market has been on fire for the past 12 months. A slight uptick in days on market and decrease in average sale price is also consistent with the general market. The pace couldn't last, but demand is still through the roof.
Richmond is one of few districts in SF that sees just as many single family home sales as condominium sales, creating a really balanced market. The typical median home buyer profile is that of a second-time-buyer, or upgrader. As more and more median homes capitalize on concierge program offerings by a range of brokerages, we’re seeing the quality of each listing increase drastically. This trend alone has been a significant factor in recent value increases, and will continue to play a role going forward. After all, turn-key is turn-key. Buyers place extreme value on properties being move-in ready.
The Luxury Market
With only 2 luxury sales in Q1, it's hard to gauge the movements of the luxury market. However, they sold fast.. However, surrounding the Richmond District, luxury priced sales have continued to trend upwards in volume and price.
Expect much of the same for homes in this category in Richmond. For the purposes of truly defining The Richmond district, also, we ensured to leave Sea Cliff sales off the data.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
Richmond has been on a tear since the early months of the pandemic, being one of San Francisco's most desirable neighbourhood pockets to escape the urban sprawl.
The Bay Area median market is beginning to be affected by rate hikes, with 6 more on the horizon between now and the end of 2023. San Francisco will be somewhat protected from the slowdown, as the majority of buyers in single family price points have enough cash to navigate rising interest rates, however, the condominium market might not be fair as well.
We're either going to see an immediate resurgence over Summer with one more value jump, or Spring '22 might be the peak, for now.
Q1 in Pacific Heights
Q1 in Pacific Heights was everything we expected after a frenetic 2021 campaign; fast, competitive and seemingly ever-increasing in value.
The condominium market eclipsed a $2,000,000 average (for a quarter) for the first time ever. Days on market keep decreasing, and buyer demand hasn't shown any signs of cooling off with rising interest rates.
The median market for single family homes is trending upward at a rate I’d argue has rarely been seen worldwide; up $400k Q1 '22 vs. 2021. Listings are becoming more and more scarce, and demand is unwavering for homes in the local market.
The luxury market saw 2 mega-sales in Q1, averaging just over $14,000,000. Similar to the median, supply is drastically limited, but the market seems to be as stable (and continually growing) as any luxury asset throughout undulating markets.
The Condominium Market
The Pacific Heights condominium market continues to tear through all previously established highs, eclipsing the coveted $2M condominium average for the first time in history over the span of an entire quarter.
37 sales at an average of $1,344/foot is a blistering start to a year. With demand at an all time high and days on market continually trending downward, it seems the market has fully re-established itself. Micro-markets with extreme desirability like Pacific Heights tend to hold firm during the early phases of a downturn, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the condominium market continues trend upward throughout 2022.
The Median Market
For the purposes of defining the line between the median market & the luxury market, $2,000,000 above or below the median at the time of this report is considered the market for a median home, whereas anything $2M above or greater tends to correlate better to the luxury market. Obviously, an argument could be made that there is a buyer pool for every property in the neighborhood up to ~ $40m, but for simplicity, let’s batch.
The median home value in Pacific Heights is up $400,000in Q1, averaging $7,652,000.
There are few markets in history that have achieved such a meteoric rise over a short period of time. For context, the median single family home price in 2019 was $7,000,000, indicating a $300,000 gain per pandemic year in asset value. Although there were few sales, the demand for the properties that do come available seems insatiable.
Similar to other markets, San Francisco locals have had a challenging time capitalizing on the market gain, because if they sell they're put in the predicament of then competing with the demand to secure the next property. Only second home owners & those leaving town have been truly able to capitalize.
The Luxury Market
The luxury market in Pacific Heights is a stalwart in global real estate. The '08 crash couldn't phase it, a pandemic barely rattled it. It's notorious for value stability and growth.
With only 2 sales on record at an average of $14,000,000, it's hard to predict any decline in the demand for world-class properties here.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
With all three markets increasing in value over Q1 '22, it's pretty safe to assume continued growth through at least the end of the Summer. The fed has projected 5 to 6 more rate increases between now and the end of 2023, signaling there may be an end in sight to the current rate of growth.
With that in mind, the table is set for an explosive Spring, Summer & Fall '22 markets.
Homeowners would be wise to consider their holding timeline beyond 2023 with the expectation of buyer’s purchasing power to be more restricted in the relatively near future.
Buyers will need to take the bull by the horns and capitalize on securing a property while rates are digestible. If/once we start seeing rates north of 5% consistently, even though historically still low,, I have a feeling many buyers will have the expectation of landing a property out of their price range, that 6-12 months earlier may have been attainable. My advice; Compete & win the bidding war on any property with novel features that will appreciate well; location, views, backyard, private outdoor space, etc.
Noe Valley continued to showcase why it's the most desirable single family/neighborhood pocket south of Market Street, with all 3 market segments moving at break-neck pace.
Q4 continued to show positive signs for the condominium market leading into 2022. Noe has been continually increasing in value all 2021, with Q4 being the only quarter where we saw a slight dip in average sales price, but consider it nominal.
The median single family home value has eclipsed $3,000,000 for the first time in history this year, and it's trending toward $3,500,000 faster than expected. I wouldn't be surprised if we were there by Summer '22.
Every home that hits the market was selling within 2 weeks in Q4, about as fast as any market nationally. We anticipate this micromarket to eventually steady out, it seems unfathomable to keep growing at this pace.
The luxury real estate market here has also seen explosive growth, taking only 7 days on average to sell homes $1M above the median.
Noe Valley will more than likely remain a sellers market for the foreseeable future.
The key statistics we will use to objectify market data are as follows:
Total Number of House Sales In Q4: 36
Average Monthly Sales In 2021: 14
Average Sale Price Of Houses In Q4: $3,041,000
Average Sale Price In 2021: $3,155,000
Average Sale Price Of Condominiums In Q4: $1,535,000
Average Sale Price In 2021: $1,580,000
Average Days On Market in Q4: 21
Months of Supply (total active listings/monthly sales rate): 0.8
Average Supply in 2021: 2.0
General sentiment from agents: Noe Valley was one of the few SF markets that went completely un-phased during the pandemic, if anything it actually increased in desirability while the rest of the city squandered. 2022 is primed for an explosive Q1, and anyone in the market needs to be ready to act immediately or risk being beat-out.
Q1 in the Tiburon real estate market was a tale of two different property-types; one booming and highly desirable, the other seems to have peaked.
The condominium market had seen sky-high attention throughout the 2021, and values continually grew throughout the end of the year and holiday season. That demand seems to have tailed off, with only 9 sales and a $150k decrease in the average sale price from $1.5M down to $1.35M.
The median home market is absolutely on fire. The median value eclipsed $4M for the first time in recorded history, and demand really hasn't seemed to fall off. Supply continues to be dwarfed by demand, as most homeowners know if they sell to capitalize on the gain, they'll be hard pressed to buy in any other median markets in the general area to actually realize the gain. Only people leaving town/off-loading second homes are in a position to directly benefit for the market growth.
The luxury market is proving its in a league of its own in Marin, The Bay Area, and even the State. The average value of a home in the 'luxury market' ($1M above the current median) has jumped $2.7M since 2019, or roughly 40%. Few markets in history have achieved such growth in such a short period of time.
The Condominium Market
The condominium market seems to be recoiling after an explosive 2021 campaign, with average prices falling and days on market climbing. After seeing continual all-time-high’s throughout 2021, we all predicted more of the same in '22.
Q1 showed that buyer interest may have already peaked, and competition between buyers isn't driving the same values as it was last year. With interest rates on the rise, I actually think there could be a second wind for the Tiburon condominium market. As buying power in the market at the median price point for single family homes continues to decline (rising rates = declining buying power), I think we’ll see buyers who are seeing themselves out priced in the housing market shift their attention to the best-available condominium market, and west-facing Tiburon properties should continue to reign supreme as best-available in Marin.
The Median Market
For the purposes of defining the line between the median market & the luxury market, $1,000,000 above or below the median at the time of this report is considered the market for a median home, whereas anything $1M above or greater tends to correlate better to the luxury market.
The median single family home market is on a rampage. Values keep climbing, days on market keep falling. Buyer demand is literally insatiable. The median home value jumped over $400k in Q1 compared to '21 homes values.
With inflation becoming an ever-present conversation around investment vehicles, real estate as an asset class seems to be more favorable than holding cash + other asset classes. With supply for homes so restricted here, it’s hard to see any drop off in demand, irrelevant of macro-economics.
The Luxury Market
The Tiburon luxury market is defining a new growth standard for luxury markets globally. The attention this market subset has received since the early days of the pandemic is nothing short of incredible, almost as if sleepy Tiburon was an enigma prior to The Great SF Exodus, now seems to be a highly desirable option. The average price of a home in the luxury market here is $6,988,000.
In 2019, for example, when the median home value was $2,963,000, the same formula used to define median vs. luxury markets defines the luxury market average home value at that time to have been $4,220,000, meaning the luxury market is up almost 40% since the pandemic began, or $2,760,000.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
It's hard to see a slow down on the horizon for this undersupplied single family home market, whereas the condominium market may have seen its short to medium term peak in 2021. With the median housing market racing above $4M, I wouldn't be surprised if the buyers continually getting beaten out in the single family market turn to the condominium market, and seek luxury condominiums in A+ locations; like Tiburon.
The single family home market Bay Area wide is exploding, continually pushing 20 to 30% above previously recorded highs, and in some cases more than 40%! That is insane. Tiburon is no different, the current buyer demand for our peninsula is something we really haven't seen before.
There are certain events on the horizon that have the potential to decrease the speed of growth; rate hikes, or WW3, for example, but given the modern real estate asset (ability to short term lease, find nightly tenants at sky-high rates, etc) is so much more functional than bubbles-past, it's hard to define if it will slow down in 2022. Expect more of the same.
Q1 was down slightly from 2021 numbers in Mill Valley, which seems understandable given the drastic price increases we saw last year, although buyer attention remains at an all-time high.
The condominium market stabilized to an average of $900k in Q4 '21 & Q1 '22, after a rapid growth spurt leading to some believing the market was overvalued.
We're still seeing 20+ disclosure requests and a handful of strong offers for most homes in the median price point. Turn-key is selling at a lightning pace.
The luxury market saw a supply drop over the turn of the new year, with only 8 homes selling in Q1. Although the median price of those 8 was significantly lower than the '21 median for this market segment, the $/foot for these homes actually increased.
The Condominium Market
The condominium in Mill Valley continued the trending correction from Q4 of '21. The general consensus is that the condo market became overvalued in mid '21, soaring from pre-pandemic levels in excess of 40%. While we are still drastically up in 2019, the median has seemed to stabilize around 900k over the past 2 quarters.
The Median Market
For the purposes of defining the line between the median market & the luxury market, $1,000,000 above or below the median at the time of this report is considered the market for a median home, whereas anything $1M above or greater tends to correlate better to the luxury market.
This market segment is as hot as any pocket in the country. While Q1 showed a minimal deficit from 2021 levels, the demand is still sky-high. The supply for median single-family homes has been almost non-existent, or at least it feels that way from a buyer's perspective.
Days on market are still low, and demand for turn-key starter homes is through the roof. Expect to see Spring ‘22 bring about a spike in sales activity as listings hit the market.
The Luxury Market
The luxury segment of Mill Valley saw one of the steepest fall offs from 2021, down ~ $900,000 from '21 averages, but the average price per foot has actually increased.
Again, due to a seriously low supply, luxury buyers are grabbing at the best available, which isn't much. I would anticipate a jump back toward a median of $5M for a luxury home in Q2/Q3 of this year.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
It's hard to fathom a slow down on the horizon, but it seems to be nearing. With the median housing market racing to $2.5M, I wouldn't be surprised if those buyers continually getting beaten out in the single family market turn to the condominium market, and seek premium condominiums in top-tier locations. The single family home market Bay Area-wide is exploding, continually pushing 20 to 30% above previously recorded highs, and in some cases more than 40%.
There are certain events on the horizon that have the power to decrease the speed of growth; rate hikes or WW3 for example, but given the modern real estate asset (ability to short term lease, find nightly tenants at sky-high rates, etc) is so much more functional than bubbles-past, it's hard to define if it will slow down in 2022.
The Larkspur real estate market performed well in Q1, even though the value increases were smaller than we've been accustomed to seeing over the past 20 odd months.
The condominium market median value increased by almost 50k in Q1, nearing an $800k average price point for the first time. There are early warning signs of the market slowing, however, with days on market continually climbing since roughly October of ‘21.
The median market for single family homes was undersupplied most of Q1, with only 7 sales recording. As I’m writing this (4/15), there is zero active inventory on the market. With the Spring market ramping up, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a handful of homes hit the market any day now. While the median price dropped, buyer demand certainly has not. Turn-key homes in Larkspur will command attention.
The luxury market only saw 1 sale at $3,750,000. Desirable homes with seclusion/privacy and a nice finish package continue to be highly sought after.
The Condominium Market
The Larkspur condo market was stable in Q1. The average price has been steadily trending upward since the pandemic began. It will cost you $800,000 on average to buy a condo in Larkspur these days. The condominium market really jumped in late ‘20, being seen as an ‘affordable’ (and desirable) option for buyers fleeing San Francisco. Throughout most of 2021, the average price
Days on market are continually increasing, indicating a downward trend is on the horizon.
The Median Market
For the purposes of defining the line between the median market & the luxury market, $1,000,000 above or below the median at the time of this report is considered the market for a median home, whereas anything $1M above or greater tends to correlate better to the luxury market.
The median dropped significantly in Q1, with only 7 sales hitting the books at an average of $2,260,000. After a white-hot '21 market where the median crept to ~ $2,500,000, the market had to cool eventually. This value dip seems to be due to supply rather than demand. There are currently 0 listings available at the median price point which is indicative of Q1 as a whole; few listings to choose from and healthy funded buyers are choosing to wait for more turn-key homes than what has been available over the turn of the year. Regardless of interest rates creeping up and buying power being pulled out of the market, the typical buyer profile we’ve seen buying homes in Larkspur is mostly protected from fluctuations in macroeconomics, which should lead to a more stable market than other markets in Marin County.
The Luxury Market
The luxury market barely moved in Q1; 1 sale at $3,750,000. Similar to the median market, the supply has been the main driver of market conditions, rather than a lowered demand. Buyers are still highly valuing easy access to San Francisco, larger living and outdoor spaces, giving Southern Marin somewhat of a golden ticket to value protection moving through the unknown ahead.
Projecting Ahead To Q2
Larkspur will always hold its value well. Limited housing supply coupled with location, access to SF as well as to Mt. Tam and beyond, it's hard to see a dip in demand.
With 5 to 6 rate increases projected to be on the horizon between now and the end of 2023, it's feasible to expect the condominium and lower median markets to be significantly affected. Buying power will greatly diminish for buyers around the median. A move of just 0.5% can increase the monthly payment dues by $1,000 to low-thousands of dollars. That's significant, and people shopping in the $1,000,000 price point are seeing their purchasing power diminish rapidly.
Luckily, most of the Marin market is insulated from macro-trends to a degree. The typical buyer a healthy downpayment, or has access to capital to help fund a real estate purchase
While it's hard to see a decrease in demand, I anticipate this Summer might be the final feeding frenzy before a declining market.
The market really cooled off toward the end of the year in Sausalito after an upbeat Q3.
Traditionally the market doesn't slow down until Thanksgiving, then really lays low through January, but this year seemed to taper off in early November.
The condominium market is still reeling on the heels of an all-time-high 2020 market when buyers were leaving the city in droves and outbidding each other on every listing, driving prices up. The condominium market peaked in Southern Marin in late 2020, and has been steadily decreasing since. As buyers flooded the early pandemic market, it makes sense that owners began listing their homes in an attempt to reap the reward, but the buyer pool wasn't as deep as we had hoped.
Similar to the condominium market, Sausalito median home market saw a gold rush of buyer traffic throughout 2020 that slowed down into 2021. We knew the pace wouldn't last, and the tail end of 2021 saw the brunt of that downturn. But, the year as a whole still broke all previous sales records.
The median market continued to sell strongly, as did the luxury market, as beautiful homes within an arm’s reach of San Francisco remain in high demand. Sausalito's luxury market was craving that jolt of energy that hit Mill Valley + Tiburon all 2021, and it finally got it by the end of Q4. 3 huge sales recorded in Q4, eclipsing the average price for a luxury home in the previous 3 quarters by almost $500k
The key statistics we will use to objectify market data are as follows:
Total Number of House Sales In Q4: 15
Average Monthly Sales In 2021: 5
Average Sale Price Of Houses In Q4: $2,323,000
Average Sale Price In 2021: $2,459,000
Sausalito Avg Price Per Square Foot Sold (all property types):
Average Sale Price Of Condominiums In Q4: $867,000
Average Sale Price In 2021: $1,027,000
Average Days On Market in Q4 (al): 39
Months of Supply (total active listings/monthly sales rate): 0.9
Average Supply in 2021: 1.3
General sentiment from agents: Sausalito has been riding the wave more than most local Marin markets in 2021, but as you can see above, there really wasn’t any inventory to work with. It’s hard to predict what Q1 in 2022 will bring, but anticipate a renewed energy from buyers. Views and desirable flat lots will sell at a premium, as they always do, but don’t expect to see $1000/foot + for property without highly desirable features.
Typical of most luxury markets, once the surrounding median markets become over inflated, buyer sentiment shifts back to paying top dollar in prime locations, rather than overspending for something less desirable. With Mill Valley + Larkspur exploding, don’t be surprised if the buyer pool begins to see Sausalito as a good deal.
Tiburon dominated the Marin markets in Q4, beating out all neighboring markets quite significantly.
The condominium market continues to climb in value, eclipsing the revered $1,000/foot average over an entire quarter for the first time in history. While $1,000/foot is normal in San Francisco, you seldom see it on the peninsula, let alone as the average for an entire quarter.
The median market continued to pop, with 7x home sales selling $400,000 above the yearly $3,600,000 average, and no sign of a slow down in sight. For frame of reference, the average price for a single family home in Tiburon in 2019 was $2,550,000.
The luxury market continues to see significant buyer attention, too, with a bulk of sales all going into contract late in the year, averaging just shy of $8M. 7 massive sales in Q4 averaging $1M more than the rest of 2021 indicates we're are on a collision course with a very active Spring '22 market. Typically the luxury market cools off toward the tail end of the year, faster than the median.
Although Days On Market remain higher than surrounding neighborhoods, final sales values speak volumes about buyer sentiment. People are willing to pay for the Tiburon lifestyle, now more than ever. 2021 was a year for the record books, and 2022 is poised to look very similar.
The key statistics we will use to objectify market data are as follows:
Total Number of House Sales In Q4: 30
Average Monthly Sales In 2021: 11
Average Sale Price Of Houses In Q4: $4,038,00
Average Sale Price In 2021: $3,665,000
Tiburon Avg Price Per Square Foot Sold:
Average Sale Price Of Condominiums In Q4: $1,615,000
Average Sale Price In 2021: $1,513,000
Average Days On Market in Q4: 39
Months of Supply (total active listings/monthly sales rate): 1.2
Average Supply in 2021: 2.1
Monthly Supply Of Listings In Tiburon:
General sentiment from agents: Tiburon gradually ramped its way to dominating the Marin markets after a slower than expected 2020. As surrounding neighborhoods exploded in value, namely Mill Valley, the median homes in Tiburon began to appear more and more appealing based on views, lot size & local amenity access. This drove a willing and able buyer pool back toward Tiburon, even at higher property values. Typical of most luxury markets, once the surrounding median markets become over inflated, buyer sentiment shifts back to paying top dollar in prime locations, rather than overspending for something less desirable. It takes slightly longer for deals to happen (listing or buying) in Tiburon, but the value drivers will always remain; views, proximity, natural light, and buyers are willing to pay what it costs to live here.
Written 10/14/2020
San Francisco and other high-density cities like New York and Chicago will return to their established prominence. There is no question in my mind. The following is an opinion piece on the psychological state of the population and how that relates to cities, corporate productivity, urban culture, and real estate value.
The 3 reasons why San Francisco will bounce back:
The human species in general has a very short-term memory. It’s true of almost every tragedy, just as it is of every accomplishment. We generally forget things pretty quickly. We forget our heroes, we forget about the people at our old workplace we had a conflict with, and we forget how we felt when we were with our ex’s.
We will forget about that time we weren’t allowed to be within 6 feet of each other.
Whether that’s in 2025, or 2028, nobody knows, but it will happen. You’ll link up with an old friend you spent a lot of time with during the pandemic and reminisce about how crazy the world was, with little to no recollection of the feelings you are feeling now. Harsh, but mostly true.
The current media push around mass exodus’ from major cities and plummeting real estate values is a dangerously short term view. Reasons for wanting more space, a house with a yard, and more square footage are all valid. Honestly, the best move I made was leaving the Mission and heading north to Tiburon. I love it here, summer has reminded me of my childhood being out in the ocean every day. I didn’t feel I had enough space to thrive where I was before the move, I lost creativity, I wasn’t performing well at work or showing up in my relationships.
I mention this to create context around short-term psychology; instant gratification. We are human after all, we run toward pleasure, but the stronger and more innate drive is to avoid pain at all costs.
Living in major cities during a lockdown, particularly downtown or in surrounding high-density areas, in buildings with beautiful amenities that are all closed due to COVID-19, isn’t fun. You hear the stories of the living conditions in downtown buildings right now, all gearing toward tails of confinement and isolation. The loneliness, the disconnection.
We are a tribe-based species, this was never going to bode well for us.
With numerous major companies ending their leases in San Francisco this summer, it’s easy to see a trend-line of a corporate exodus, too. But once again, dangerously near-sighted. The short-term (there’s that phrase again) gain from saving big bucks on leases while employees are working from home indefinitely is obvious. What’s not so obvious is the quality of work being performed from home.
After speaking with clients who run small to medium-sized businesses, it’s pretty clear none of them are happy with the current state of their company compared to their 2020 projections. Employee productivity & buy-in as well as company culture have taken a hit with Zoom meetings and virtual interaction. Not being able to see your favourite colleagues and work-friends every day has been tough for all of us. Those friendships were our escape from the suck of working day after day in pursuit of our professional goals. It takes a special breed to thrive on their own and outperform their previous bests in this current work environment.
Parents working from home with kids in the house have a substantially harder mountain to climb. They’ve adopted new roles throughout the workday that include lunch-maker, cleaner, participating in play-time, and running errands when school or daycare might have had those responsibilities in the past. The need to immediately develop the ability to focus for bursts of time between the kids banging on the office door because they can’t find food in the pantry sounds so difficult. I tip my hat to you for persevering.
The murmurings of employee unhappiness are rising, too. People are stuck at home in Zoom meetings during the workday, then doing the actual work of their jobs at all other hours of the day because there isn’t a whole lot else to do.
After all, you work at Google to ride bikes around campus, eat at the cafeterias and see your friends, not because you love staring at your laptop. I think an underlying feeling in the workforce is a lot of employees would quit their jobs if they could find work elsewhere.
It’s not as fun anymore.
No matter how good the technology enabling us to work remotely becomes, the tribal instinct will remain. We need to be around each other.
The Bay Area is expanding right now as people move farther and farther away from the epicenter of the Silicon Valley. If we are allowed to be within 6 feet of each other within a year or two, though, like an exhale after an inhale, the trend will reverse and the Bay Area will constrict. Moving to Sacremento sounded good for a few weeks there, but it’s hard to see the future of AI, Machine Learning, VR, and Cryptocurrency all finding enough talent to push the needle in the Central Valley.
As soon as we can be, it’s almost inconceivable for companies not to see to see the advantage of being in an urban environment and hotbed for employee talent. Having teams around each other in the same building has an immeasurably positive effect on businesses, from communication and training to culture and happiness, it’s hard to see our species shifting away from enjoying being around each other.
The businesses that endure and remain in the city will adopt all the talent of people that didn’t leave the city when their company did. Big corporate will race back to the security and infrastructure a big city provides, and people living in the suburbs will find themselves sitting in traffic on the bridge again.
We will reminisce about the time that we couldn’t be within 6 feet of each other, just like we forgot how scared we were about the Y2K Bug & and how convenient it was when our data was on USB drives and burnt CD’s instead of in 10lb binders.
When that day comes and you’re sitting around in the home that you bought at a discount during the pandemic in San Francisco, a mecca for innovation and growth, you will be grinning from ear to ear, proud that you acted on the instinct telling you now is a good time to buy.
Written September 28, 2020
It’s no secret the condominium market has been deflated these past months, with buyers opting for the suburbs in search of space to work from home for the indefinite future.
However, a recent uptick in the San Francisco market is showing properties with certain features like outdoor space, private patios, and roof decks are back to selling at a familiar pace: Less than a week on market. They are all seeing heavy attention before they hit the market.
As it stands, there are more pocket listings available in San Francisco than any moment in the history of the city’s multiple listing service.
What that means for the consumer - there are plenty more options available than meet’s the public eye if you’re buying, and plenty more competitors if you are selling a home. Either way, these options are imperative to know of or have toured for a depth of market knowledge.
In the traditional condominium neighborhoods (*think everything east of Golden Gate Park) there are currently 124 coming soon/pocket listings.
With ~ 1400 properties already available on market, an additional ~120 listings available hardly seems like a dint. For buyers in the market though, a significant amount of opportunity exists off-market.
In the current state of the market, condominiums are sitting longer than previous years with desirability for backyards, outdoor space, and roof decks at a premium. Properties that feature 1 or more of these attributes are disappearing from the open market at a break-neck pace, similar to what we would expect in a regular market.
In 2020, listings with these features are selling faster than previous years due to the increased desirability for space and a private place to relax outside.
After all, having a private patio opens you up to an entirely different living experience. If this summer has taught us anything, being outside in this beautiful city is one of the most underrated and necessary components of the lifestyle we’re all accustomed to. Especially being in your own outdoor oasis without having to communicate with any of your neighbors! Bliss.
The best way to find these ideal home features is to dig through all off-market portals, as they tend to hit the market and get swooped up within the week.
With new requirements around how realtors disclose pocket listings, the number was bound to increase this year. No one could have predicted the amount to reach 3 digits, though.
Tapping into agent psychology, pocket listings act as a teaser before hitting the open market. Agents produce marketing material and distribute to the agent community to see who, if any, has buyers ready and waiting to pounce.
In a traditional market, this is the inherent value of a well-connected local realtor. In the pandemic market where some homes are sitting for 60-100 days, and others are selling in 2, this is where buyers will find the diamonds in the rough. With so many sellers fearing their Days On Market clock to get too high and affecting the perceived value of their property, some listings have been Coming Soon since March at this point. Will the ever actually come? Who knows. But you can buy them..
For a list of pocket listings in your price point, let me know what you’re looking for.
Written September 21, 2020
An inflection point is nearing in the condominium market in San Francisco. Values can only drop for so long, or more appropriately said, the select group of buyers in the market could only retain their exclusivity for a certain period of time.
In analyzing buyer demographics over the past 3 months, condos and TIC’s took the biggest a hit when investors and pied-a-terre owners fell out of the market. In a regular market, these property types have 3-4 main buyer types:
Generally speaking, the more buyer types open to a property and the larger number of individuals in each group equals the demand.
Investors represent a significant portion of the market and caters for the number of privately owned rental properties available. With a growing trend of people leaving San Francisco in search of space, the city has seen more vacancies in rentals than ever before, leading to decreased rental values city-wide, particularly surrounding downtown. This trend has all-but caused the investor buyer pool to remove themselves from the market in search of more stability in ROI. I’ve long discussed with investors and sellers that an inflection point is nearing where opportunistic investors will see a shift in sentiment, where buy-in values are low enough to tolerate the risk of 6-12 months of decreased rental desirability, betting on the long-term stability of San Francisco as a real estate market. After all, few people have ever lost money investing in SF real estate. With 3 weeks straight of total sales increases, it seems that point upon us.
Those in the market for second-homes, or pied-a-terre buyers, looking to own a place in the city to come in on the weekends and spend time in the vibrancy of San Francisco seems to be a trend of the past, or at least momentarily on pause. Along with a variety of macro-economic factors leading to less-frivolous spending, the lifestyle these buyers were seeking as a result of the asset acquisition is also off the table. Restaurant restrictions, shows & theatres closed, and the night scene of the city severely hindered, it seems this buyer pool is out of the market for now.
Ironically, higher-end condo owners in San Francisco are now seeking pied-a-terre’s in the suburbs or in the foothills of the Seirra’s, offering them escape and tranquility from the busyness of the city when they don’t have to be localized to San Francisco anymore.
Sales data is showing a steady uptick in condominium & TIC sales dating back to the end of August, suggesting owner-occupant buyers are capitalizing on the decreased competition in the market.
The past 3 weeks:
*in District 5,D6,D7,D8 & D9
8/31 - 9/6 = # of condo /TIC’s pending: 29
9/7-9/13 = # of pending: 38
9/14 - 9/20 = # of pending: 43
The major condominium district’s surrounding downtown saw increased absorption rates (properties going into contract) over the past 3 weeks, suggesting an uptick in attention, showings, and buyers willing to submit offers on the north-eastern half of the city. Given real estate data is a lagging indicator of what’s actually happening in the market, it will be a telling data point to measure what these properties ultimately sell for in comparison to the 2019 market or even the early-pandemic market.
To carry over from my previous article, sellers are still finding themselves competing with other listings on the market to draw attention and attract more potential buyers to schedule in-person showings. This trend hasn’t slowed, if anything it’s enhanced. Price drops continue, re-photographing, and re-launching marketing campaigns is something we’re seeing more and more, as listing agents are doing everything they can to draw eyeballs to the property they’re selling.
In recent weeks, I strongly advised clients to let offer dates pass and submit our offers in the wake of a listing receiving little attention or traction. Seller psychology in those wake periods is usually when the best deals happen for buyers. Owners are finding themselves asking the difficult question of ‘Are We Willing To Take Less For Our Home Than Originally Desired?’ If no one bids or only an offer or two comes in well below expectation, sellers are forced to re-assess their ultimate goals.
This past week felt different from those previous, however. Properties that are priced well and were in decent to exceptional condition and in prime locations were going into contract within 7 days which is the speed they move in a regular market. We found ourselves suggesting that our clients write offers on certain properties in anticipation of multiple offers being presented again, and suggesting presenting our best and final from the jump. In multiple cases, we offered well above asking on properties and still came up short.
The overwhelming thought is owner-occupants are capitalizing on the exclusivity they have in the market while investors and second homeowners are paying attention elsewhere.
As always, reach out if you have any questions about the market.
Q4 in Tiburon
Q4 was a coup de grâce for what was the obvious turning point of a bull market. The downturn affected each and every pocket in the real estate sector, and few neighborhoods/areas were spared. For the first time in over a decade, the Marin real estate market shifted from a seller's market to a buyer’s market.
There are more deals available in Marin county than I've seen in my entire career. Single-family homes sitting on the market for 90 days plus, condominiums seeing little to no desirability in places, and the luxury market took one of the biggest hits in the nation.
Beautiful turn-key properties are still selling well. There will always be a market for location + turn-key, but anything less than that might need to consider remodels prior to listing in Spring '23.
The Condominium Market
Similar to surrounding markets, the Tiburon condominium market mostly fell off a cliff in Q4 with a rising interest rate environment affecting affordability. Condominium buyers are heavily rate-conscious which makes this market segment highly susceptive to immediate downturns when rates rise.
While the average price of a condominium went unchanged, the sheer lack of sales volume is indicative of Bay Area real estate desirability as a whole. Sellers will need to meet buyer expectations in order to achieve a successful sale. Luckily, most owners 82%+) have owned since 2020 or before with significant equity reserves to tap into should a sale be an immediate need. Offering a turn-key, the updated unit is the fastest way to sell in a recessive market.
The Median Market
The Tiburon median home market performed well in the face of rising interest rates in Q4, with 9 sales recording at a similar $/foot as we have been seeing all year. While the average price for a home dropped by ~ $700,000, price per foot is traditionally the best indicator to assess the market quarter over quarter. Median homes were selling for $1,259/foot in Q4 compared to $1,210 throughout all of 2022, highlighting that buyers are still willing to pay what sellers have been asking. The time it takes to sell a home only increased by a handful of days in the final quarter of the year, too. Demand is still high.
Given the median market is typically undersupplied, securing a home for < $4,000,000 in Tiburon is a tall order, giving leverage to homeowners trying to sell for top dollar.
The Luxury Market
The luxury market for a home in Tiburon, unfortunately, saw a massive decline in Q4, with average prices dropping by almost $1,800,000 compared to the rest of the year. Although only 3 sales were recorded compared to 25 all year, the unspoken data point missed here is the sheer number of homes that didn't sell or were pulled from the market.
The Bay Area's luxury market as a whole plummeted in Q3&4 as macroeconomic conditions wreaked havoc on the real estate market. One of the biggest drivers for luxury home sales has traditionally been proximity to San Francisco, however the drastic decline in office desirability heightened WFH culture, and an increase in cost-of-capital has deterred high-price point buyers from pulling the trigger.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
Q1 will set the tone for the coming year more so than any other quarter in recent memory. The entirety of the real estate community is sitting on the edge of our seats eagerly hoping for a strong sales quarter and a renewed confidence that we've seen the worst of the correction. With rates already decreasing toward the tail end of Q4, it seems like we've already experienced the bottom of the market.
I could easily see a full year of price stagnancy in 2023, with property values staying mostly level with the prices we're seeing now, down < 10% from the Q1 "22 peaks. Prices across Marin were appreciating at 15-20% year over year during COVID, which was an absolutely absurd pace.
We are now in a buyer's market. There are more opportunities in the market for the savvy than ever before.
The Pacific Heights had another challenging quarter with both the condo & median markets continuing to decline. The condominium market saw only 28 sales (~60 per quarter in a regular market) & median single-family homes were down nearly $2,000,000 per sale.
This might be the biggest dip in demand for the most historically desirable districts in San Francisco, ever. The only other demand swing I have seen of similar magnitude was for the condominium market in downtown SF during the early days of the pandemic.
While buyers may seem out of the market, any given property can sell quickly if presented well. There are buyers out there, and they are all looking to capitalize on the current market conditions. Seller expectations will need to drop in order to achieve a successful sale.
The Condominium Market
It's safe to say, no one wanted a condominium in Q4. with barely 1/8 of the year’s sales landing in the 4th quarter, buyer demand drastically fell off after continual rate hikes and unrealistic seller expectations. Ironically, the average sale price for a unit remained steady, actually, it slightly increased.
Given the condominium market is the first to feel the effects of rate hikes, you often see buyer demand fall off a cliff. That was highly evident in Pacific Heights. Buildings with higher HOA fees saw almost zero demand in Q4.
With so many listings being pulled in Q4, expect to see the majority come back this Spring with a new price & tapered seller expectation. Once sellers can meet the market pricing, expect to see a flurry of sales.
The Median Market
The median price for a single-family home in Pacific Heights dropped below $5M for the first time in recent memory, as rate hikes coupled with low desirability for a city property continued to trend.
Given the uniqueness of most single-family homes in the neighborhood, it's not uncommon to see massive average price swings from quarter to quarter. Low inventory and low sales volume create these swings, but a $2,000,000 (or 1/3) dip is no drop in the bucket
Buyer demand will likely increase when SF desirability as whole increases, which will require some non-real estate level intervention; cleaner, safer streets, workers returning to the office, a clear direction for SF's major commercial vacancies, etc.
The Luxury Market
The luxury market faired quite well in Q4 according to closed sales data. However, the unspoken trend here is the number of listings that failed to actually attract a buyer and record a data point.
Days on market eclipsing 220 (aka 7+ months) to sell is a clear indicator of the difficulty owners are having to attract a buyer. While luxury properties obviously take longer to sell to the smaller subset of prospective buyers, 220 days is astronomical. in 2021 for example, there were 8 sales north of $10,000,000 in Pac Heights, at an average of just 37 days per sale.
While I expect the lure and prestige of this market pocket to remain strong intact, it's anybody’s guess as to when desirability will rebound.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
Although Q4 seems doom & gloom, the relative lack of sales data across all market segments makes it hard to project a similarly poor-performing quarter. All previously listed properties will more than likely still be seeking a sale, and with rates already trending downward, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a surge of transactions in Q1.
Sellers will need to meet the market price with their expectations. Now that buyers have stomached the rate increases for the better part of 2 quarters, coupled with the shift to rates trending down, expect to see a flurry of market activity for people trying to time 'the bottom.'
If you've been on the fence, now is the time to jump. There might not be a more opportunistic time as buyers currently hold all the cards in any given negotiation.
Q4 was a coup de grâce for what was the obvious turning point of a bull market. The downturn affected each and every pocket in the real estate sector, and few neighborhoods/areas were spared. For the first time in over a decade, the Marin real estate market shifted from a seller's market to a buyer's market.
There are more deals available in Marin county than I've seen in my entire career. Single-family homes sitting on the market for 90 days plus, condominiums seeing little to no desirability in places, and the luxury market took one of the biggest hits in the nation.
Beautiful turn-key properties are still selling well. There will always be a market for location + turn-key, but anything less-than might need to consider a remodel prior to listing in Spring '23.
The Median Market
The median market in Fairfax took the biggest hit out of all market segments with prices dropping by $200,000 on average. Traditionally we see a falloff in the final quarter of the year, but his years' trends suggest a stronger narrative; buyer affordability and demand are significantly below where they have been in recent years.
With decreasing affordability, buyers are shifting their focus heavily to turn-key. Additional costs after purchase are as undesirable in this market as they ever have been, and it's in a homeowners’ best interests to take the time to update & enhance their properties ahead of time to ensure a turn-key property is presented to the market.
Bidding wars still exist for a select few homes presented well and priced in line with the market.
The Luxury Market
The luxury home market in Fairfax saw little activity in the final quarter of 2022 with only 1 sale recording at $3,000,000, 2 listings pulled from the market, and another still active at the turn of the new year.
Traditionally, Fairfax has seen an undersupplied luxury market given the relatively small amount of homes in the area. Buyers in these price points have drastically fallen off county-wide, but also are seeing a plethora of homes to choose from throughout Southern Marin making it challenging to see a strong luxury market in Fairfax going into 2023.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
Q1 will set the tone for the coming year more so than any other quarter in recent memory. The entirety of the real estate community is sitting on the edge of our seats eagerly hoping for a strong sales quarter and a renewed confidence that we've seen the worst of the correction. With rates already decreasing toward the tail end of Q4, it seems like we've already experienced the bottom of the market.
I could easily see a full year of price stagnancy in 2023, with property values staying mostly level with the prices we're seeing now, down < 10% from the Q1 "22 peaks. Prices across Marin were appreciating at 15-20% year over year during COVID, which was an absolutely absurd pace.
We are now in a buyer's market. There are more opportunities in the market for the savvy than ever before.
Q4 was a coup de grâce for what was the obvious turning point of a bull market. The downturn affected each and every pocket in the real estate sector, and few neighborhoods/areas were spared. For the first time in over a decade, the Marin real estate market shifted from a seller's market to a buyer’s market.
There are more deals available in Marin county than I've seen in my entire career. Single-family homes sitting on the market for 90 days plus, condominiums seeing little to no desirability in places, and luxury market look one of the biggest hits in the nation.
Beautiful turn-key properties are still selling well. There will always be a market for location + turn-key, but anything less than that might need to consider remodels prior to listing in Spring '23.
The Condominium Market
The condominium market took a massive slide in Q4 recording only 20 sales when we're accustomed to seeing 45+ in regular markets. Buyer demand fell off a cliff.
Condominium buyers are always the most rate conscious which makes the entry-level market highly susceptive to immediate downturns when rates rise.
In good news, however, the average price for a condominium in San Rafael remained mostly level at a $706,000 average after seeing a 710k average over the entirety of 2022.
The Median Market
The San Rafael median market has been performing strongly throughout the year, and Q4 was no different. Even with rate-conscious buyers being heavily affected by the continual increases, the median market in San Rafael has barely budged.
My thesis; A $1.6M median is perfectly in the sweet spot where rate-conscious buyers still have enough cash for a down payment, but are getting priced out of surrounding neighborhoods like Larkspur & Corte Madera with a median of ~ $2M in this 6% rate environment.
Properties that are presented & priced well are still seeing multiple offers. It's in a homeowner’s best interests in 2023 to remodel/update and provide a turnkey experience for buyers. The trend of buyers being willing to compete for anything less-than turnkey is behind us.
The Luxury Market
The luxury market in San Rafael, in stark contrast to the median, screeched to a halt. Only 2 sales were recorded throughout Q4 after almost 30 hit the books between Jan & October.
San Rafael luxury homes are the most susceptive in Marin to swinging trends; buyers priced out of Mill Valley, Corte Madera & Larkspur for luxury estates all turned to San Rafael during the pandemic markets. With the recent swing of buyer desirability in the real estate market as a whole, however, buyers seem to be less open to alternate markets.
As a seller moving into 2023, it's paramount to be in tune with the current market and price property in line with the most recent sales. There are always buyers in the market for the right property, and properties priced & presented well will still demand attention.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
Q1 will set the tone for the coming year more so than any other quarter in recent memory. The entirety of the real estate community is sitting on the edge of our seats eagerly hoping for a strong sales quarter and a renewed confidence that we've seen the worst of the correction. With rates already decreasing toward the tail end of Q4, it seems like we've already experienced the bottom of the market.
I could easily see a full year of price stagnancy in 2023, with property values staying mostly level with the prices we're seeing now, down < 10% from the Q1 "22 peaks. Prices across Marin were appreciating at 15-20% year over year during COVID, which was an absolutely absurd pace.
We are now in a buyer's market. There are more opportunities in the market for the savvy than ever before.
After a statistically insane few years, the tail end of Q2 saw massive change in the real estate industry. Macro-economic events played a major role in the financial stability of all markets, real estate included, but none more significantly than interest rates essentially doubling in a handful of months.
Tiburon, and most of Southern Marin has seen value gains in excess of 20% Y-O-Y since '19. Q2 was no different; massive value jumps across the board.
With inflation running rampant & rates projected to rise at least 2x more before the end of 2022, the writing is seemingly on the wall that the real estate market will follow both the stock & crypto markets with significant price corrections. Luckily, this pocket of The Bay is so highly sought after, demand should offset value reduction.
The Condominium Market
Condominiums sold well in Q2 contrary to what we’ve been seeing in the overall condominium market; a buyer pool that had drastically lost buying power. Buyers in this price range are massively rate conscious, and it’s likely the first time they’ve ever seen interest rates above 6% in their lifetimes. Psychologically, this is probably the biggest hurdle that all homes for sale in this price range will face.
The Median Market
Tiburon's median SFH market is up $1.5M in Q2 from 2021, an insane appreciation curve. The median sales data is novel compared to surrounding markets, massively outperforming the average. Sellers here are just starting to feel the effect of the entry-level market losing steam. Given the price point, the median market in Tiburon functions more closely with surrounding areas luxury markets; less affected by macro-events.
The Luxury Market
We’ve seen a luxury boom all across SF & Marin over the past 12-18 months with some luxury markets up 50% percent in just a handful of years. Clients in these price points are less affected by macroeconomic events and tend to transact out of want rather than need. The luxury market stands to be significantly less affected than the median or condominium markets. But don't expect the same appreciation moving forward.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
I would anticipate a similar market to the one we're currently experiencing for the next quarter; 6-7% rates, an entry-level market reeling for stability, and a mostly flat median market (contrary to Q2 data).
While I wouldn't expect to see single family home values to drop at all, I wouldn't expect them to rise, either. Demand is still insatiably high for the lifestyle Tiburon provides, and there is still plenty of cash and equity in the Bay Area for residents to buy-sell property.
I think we will find 'the bottom' once the Russia-Ukraine situation has a definitive and positive plan for moving forward, oil markets steady, and U.S. inflation is under control. Unfortunately, I don't see those 3 things all happening in Q3.
Q3 in Tiburon
Marin County intimately felt what the rest of the country has been feeling this past quarter; a drastic slow down in sales, sales prices deflating, supply of homes on-market rising, and time on-market to sell homes is increasing. All reflections of a shifting market.
Sales in September '22 were down 32% compared to September '21. Days on market (time to sell a home) are up 16%. Months supply of homes on market is UP 30%.
We've been heavily accustomed to a strong sellers market, but recent macro-economic events have swung Marin into a more normalized market comparative to traditional markets all over the country, if not putting power in buyer's hands. If you've been waiting to buy a home, now is seemingly the best time to buy property since '09.
The Condominium Market
Condominiums in Tiburon have been selling consistently throughout the year, averaging 12+ sales per quarter at ~$1.5M per unit. Although the time it takes to sell a property; up to 39 from 35, is slowly rising quarter over quarter, most properties are still selling.
The Median Market
Similar to most Marin median markets, Tiburon median property value actually grew in Q3. The average price for a median home jumped to $4.1M from $3.65M in previous quarters over 8x sales. Total sales volume is drastically down, however, as previous quarters averaged 30x sales per. This is indicative of the general buyer market being more hesitant than ever given macro-economic conditions.
The Luxury Market
Tiburon saw 7x luxury estate sales in Q3, similar to its traditional quarterly average of ~12x sales. The average price jumped from $6.8M to $7.5M, and the time it's taking to sell such estates has dropped to 18 days from 30. There is seemingly always a market for luxury properties in 1st-Tier Bay Area locations.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
With interest rates rising seemingly month after month, and Thanksgiving & The Holidays on the horizon, Q4 doesn’t project well as the turn of this market.
Instead, given the current trends, Q4 should be viewed by buyers as one of the most opportunistic times to buy property in the past decade. Most seller’s opting to try and sell in this market are doing so out of necessity, and it’s worth remembering that most sellers have seen 50-60% appreciation over the past 5 years which allows for significant wiggle room on final sales price should buyers get the opportunity to negotiate rather than a be in a multiple offer situation.
I anticipate the Fall market to run from October 1st through ~ Thanksgiving, then we’ll see a significant lull in listings on the market, sales volume, etc.
After a statistically insane few years, the tail end of Q2 saw massive change in the real estate industry. Macro-economic events played a major role in the financial stability of all markets, real estate included, but none more significantly than interest rates essentially doubling in just a handful of months.
Sausalito, and most of Southern Marin has seen property value gains in excess of 15% year over year since 2019, an insatiable growth curve.
With inflation running rampant & rates projected to rise at least 2x more before the end of 2022, the writing is seemingly on the wall that the real estate market will follow both the stock & crypto markets with significant price corrections. Luckily, this pocket of The Bay is so highly sought after, demand should offset value reduction.
After a statistically insane few years, the tail end of Q2 saw massive change in the real estate industry. Macro-economic events played a major role in the financial stability of all markets, real estate included, but none more significantly than interest rates essentially doubling in just a handful of months.
Sausalito, and most of Southern Marin has seen property value gains in excess of 15% year over year since 2019, an insatiable growth curve.
With inflation running rampant & rates projected to rise at least 2x more before the end of 2022, the writing is seemingly on the wall that the real estate market will follow both the stock & crypto markets with significant price corrections. Luckily, this pocket of The Bay is so highly sought after, demand should offset value reduction.
The Condominium Market
Condominiums sold well in Q2 contrary to what we’ve been seeing in the overall condominium market; a buyer pool that had drastically lost buying power. Buyers in this price range are massively rate conscious, and it’s likely the first time they’ve ever seen interest rates above 6% in their lifetimes. Psychologically, this is probably the biggest hurdle that all homes for sale in this price range will face.
The Median Market
Sausalito's median SFH market is up $1M in Q2 from 2021, and down to 11 days on market, on average. Sausalito's median sales data is novel compared to surrounding markets, massively outperforming the average. Sellers here are just starting to feel the effect of the entry-level market losing steam. With entry level homes having a harder time finding a buyer, it’s putting a strain on people's ability to trade up to an SFH.
The Luxury Market
We’ve seen a luxury boom all across SF & Marin over the past 12-18 months with some luxury markets up 50% percent in just a handful of years. Clients in these price points are less affected by macroeconomic events and tend to transact out of want rather than need. The luxury market stands to be significantly less affected than the median or condominium markets. But don't expect the same appreciation moving forward.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
I would anticipate a similar market to the one we're currently experiencing for the next quarter; 6-7% rates, an entry-level market reeling for stability, and a mostly flat median market (contrary to Q2 data).
While I wouldn't expect to see single family home values to drop at all, I wouldn't expect them to rise, either. Demand is still insatiably high for the lifestyle Sausalito provides, and there is still plenty of cash and equity in the Bay Area for residents to buy-sell property.
I think we will find 'the bottom' once the Russia-Ukraine situation has a definitive and positive plan for moving forward, oil markets steady, and U.S. inflation is under control. Unfortunately, I don't see those 3 things all happening in Q3.
Marin County intimately felt what the rest of the country has been feeling this past quarter; a drastic slow down in sales, sales prices deflating, supply of homes on-market rising, and time on-market to sell homes is increasing. All reflections of a shifting market.
Sales in September '22 were down 32% compared to September '21.
Days on market (time to sell a home) are up 16%.
Monthly supply of homes on the market is UP 30%.
We've been heavily accustomed to a strong sellers market, but recent macro-economic events have swung Marin into a more normalized market comparative to traditional markets all over the country, if not putting power in buyer's hands. If you've been waiting to buy a home, now is seemingly the best time to buy property since '09.
The Condominium Market
Sausalito's condominium market reeled in Q3; 8x total sales after seeing 25x per quarter earlier in the year, with the average sale price down ~$200k; $812k from $1.02M.
The Median Market
Although total sales were drastically down in Q3, the average sales price in Sausalito for a median home continues to rise; up to $3.02M from $2.45M in prior quarters. However, only 9 sales compared to an average of 20 per quarter at the beginning the year shows that buyers are more hesitant than ever.
The Luxury Market
Sausalito posted 4x luxury property sale in Q3, selling well above the luxury average of $4.0M in previous quarters, with a rapid sale cycle of just 17 days on market to sell. It's hard to assess the effect recent macro-economic events are having on this market segment. In general terms, there is still significantly more demand for beautiful properties in Sausalito than the market has supplied.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
With interest rates rising seemingly month after month, and Thanksgiving & The Holidays on the horizon, Q4 doesn’t project well as the turn of this market.
Instead, given the current trends, Q4 should be viewed by buyers as one of the most opportunistic times to buy property in the past decade. Most seller’s opting to try and sell in this market are doing so out of necessity, and it’s worth remembering that most sellers have seen 50-60% appreciation over the past 5 years which allows for significant wiggle room on final sales price should buyers get the opportunity to negotiate rather than a be in a multiple offer situation.
I anticipate the Fall market to run from October 1st through ~ Thanksgiving, then we’ll see a significant lull in listings on the market, sales volume, etc.
Mission Bay is slowly regaining traction, with the 1 + 2 bedroom markets picking up steam late in 2021.
Traditionally we see a 30-day market in Mission Bay, with most-all units selling the same month they're listed. After a severely deflated pandemic, the 1 bedroom market continued to regain traction deep into Q4. Days on market dropping by 1/4 was a huge signal to the agent community that 1 bedroom buyers are coming back into the market, anticipating back-to-office in late Q1 of 2022.
As Days On Market continues to return to normal levels, and more buyers purchasing homes later into the holiday season than we see in regular years, Spring '22 is set to see a massive flood of buyer activity.
3 bedroom condominiums were the heaviest hit. Buyers who traditionally seek larger units are permanent city residents, typically older families, that need space but don't want to do any maintenance work.
With this buyer pool transitioning into the single family home market, we are waiting to see who will take their place. Q4 compounded on a year of continual regrowth for Mission Bay.
The key statistics we will use to objectify market data are as follows:
Total Number of Sales In Q4: 40
Average Monthly Sales In 2021: 15
Average Sale Price In Q4: $1,382,000
Average Sale Price In 2021: $1,305,000
Average Days On Market in Q4: 37
Months of Supply (total active listings/monthly sales rate): 1.8
Average Supply in 2021: 5.8
General sentiment from agents: The condominium market as a whole has mostly regained all losses from the pandemic, and buyer demand continues to steadily climb. Mission Bay has been moving slightly slower than surrounding areas, mostly due to an expectation from sellers that units needed to sell above what they bought them for. The problem; a large percentage of homeowners in Mission Bay bought between 2017-2019, generally regarded as the peak of the market.
With back-to-office impending, albeit with the new normal of hybridized office work, we believe you’ll quickly find that people will get sick of their new commute and condominium demand will continue to steadily increase.
Q4 saw the condominium market in South Beach continue to gain ground toward pre-pandemic numbers. Q4 was more active than we typically see at the tail end of the real estate calendar year, which only compounds the excitement for a normalized Spring '22 market.
The 1 bedroom market saw 44 sales averaging over $1M again - higher than any quarter in 2021, and it took a shorter + shorter amount of time to sell units as the year progressed, indicating a general up-tick of buyer attention to the downtown 1 bedroom market.
The 2 bedroom market broke the $1.7M median market for the first time since Q1 of 2020. 2022 should see a continual gain for this segment of the market. Owners that have been holding onto their condominiums and waiting for the market to turn will more than likely begin listing in February/March of '22 in anticipation of a busy Spring market.
The 3 bedroom market saw a handful of sales signaling the high-net-worth buyers were back in the market and eager to land themselves a potentially undervalued (give it a few more quarters and this will change) given the slow re-opening of the city.
Q1 of 2022 has the build up and anticipation of a highly active and regular condominium market, and the agent community couldn't be more excited.
The key statistics we will use to objectify market data are as follows:
Total Number of Sales In Q4: 87
Average Monthly Sales In 2021: 36
Average Sale Price In Q4: $1,649,000
Average Sale Price In 2021: $1,499,000
Average Days On Market in Q4: 48
Months of Supply (total active listings/monthly sales rate): 2.8
Average Supply in 2021: 3.2
General sentiment from agents: The condominium market has mostly regained all losses from the pandemic, and buyer demand continues to steadily climb. With back-to-office impending, albeit with the new normal of hybridized office work, we believe you’ll quickly find that people will get sick of their new commute and condominium demand will continue to steadily increase as it did from 2016-2019.
San Rafael's market kicked off '22 with incredible demand. The condominium & median home markets were as competitive as any market in the Bay Area, while the luxury market took a few months to ramp up to what we saw in ‘21.
Condominiums in San Rafael averaged above $700k for the first time ever (year-average) in 2021, and after a brief correction over the turn of the new year slightly below 600k, Q1 overall posted a $658k average price per unit.
The median market is still dramatically undervalued in the eyes of the buyer pool, creating massive bidding wars and houses selling hundreds of thousands of dollars above asking, and in some cases 500k above 2019 purchase prices.
The luxury market ramped up slowly, averaging $3.2M, down from $3.7M in 2021. But 3x big sales are currently pending which will pull the average up through early '22.
The Condominium Market
The San Rafael condominium market has bounced right back after a less-than-desirable end to 2021, where we saw average values drop below $600k toward the holiday season.
With the continual strength of the single family market challenging buyers' ability to secure property, I think we're seeing a trend of buyers priced out of the single family markets turning to the condominium markets and buying the best-available.
San Rafael has a challenging value-horizon, being one of the furthest removed (distance-wise) markets from the major city-hub of San Francisco, coupled with being pigeon holed as the majority bearer of Marin’s expected ~ 14,000 additional housing units needing to be built within the next decade, ordered by the State of California. Locals are not thrilled by the anticipated housing increase, and have taken measures to contest the mandates imposed on Marin County.
The Median Market
For the purposes of defining the line between the median market & the luxury market, $1,000,000 above or below the median at the time of this report is considered the market for a median home, whereas anything $1M above or greater tends to correlate better to the luxury market.
The median market in San Rafael was as competitive as any in the county in Q1. Homes are selling at a record price per foot ($873/foot average), averaging just 17 days on market. With a median of $1,664,000, the market is considered somewhat undervalued by buyers being priced out in Mill Valley, Larkspur + Corte Madera, which should factor into continued growth. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a $2M average sooner than later, even in conjunction with rising rates. Spring/Summer ‘22 is poised to be the peak (or a peak) before the Fed’s interjected rate hikes really hit home and suck buying power out of the market.
The Luxury Market
The luxury market tailed off in Q1. The average of the 6 luxury sales hit $3.2M, down from $3.7M in 2021. Although, there are some exceptional properties (1x @ $5M) currently pending & on-market at the turn of the quarter, which should average out the data after Q2. With buyers valuing high-quality, finished square footage almost as much as acute location, I would expect to see San Rafael continue to catch up to surrounding markets.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
I still anticipate the next quarter to be just as explosive as the Q1. San Rafael has the luxury of being close-enough in proximity to SF to still appeal to all the exodus buyers and checking the box of 'commutable,' whereas that sentiment seems to stop once you pass Terra Linda toward Novato.
With that in mind, it's hard to see the $1.6M - $2.6M market to tail off any time soon. You can get significantly more house in San Rafael for under $2M compared to being unable to secure a house under $2M in markets in Southern Marin. This alone should ensure the market continues to trend upward in the face of 6 projected rate hikes coming before the end of 2023.
Q1 was a breath of fresh air for Sausalito after lack-luster 2021 results. Interestingly enough, surrounding markets didn't perform nearly as well as Sausalito in Q1, yet out-performed throughout 2021.
Being a low supply market, we're used to seeing homes get swooped up within ~30 days of listing, even at the luxury price points (especially at the luxury price point, actually).
Condominiums jumped ~25% in Q1, and are still seeing high traffic at open houses and low days on market compared to the norm.
The median market continues to steadily climb. A slow March pulled the average down to $2.64M, whereas after mid-Feb it was trending toward a $3M average. Expect blistering hot demand for any turn-key median homes.
The luxury market popped in Q1, with 4 major sales between $3.9M & $5M.
The Condominium Market
The condominium market in Sausalito jumped in Q1 of '22, significantly ahead of what we saw in 2021. At an average price of $1,273,000 over 7 sales, the market is up ~ 25% from a '21 average of $1,027,000 per condominium. While it could be argued the desirability of the 7 condominiums in Q1 was also significantly above the '21 'average,' $1000/foot average in Q1 from $838 in '21 signals
With interest rates on the rise, I actually think there could be a second wind for the Sausalito condominium market to climb higher. As buying power in the market at the median price point for single family homes continues to decline (rising rates = declining buying power), I think we’ll see buyers who are seeing themselves outpriced in the housing market shift their attention to the best-available condominium market, and west-facing Sausalito properties should continue to reign supreme as best-available in Marin.
The Median Market
The median single family home increased to $2,640,000, slightly above Mill Valley & Larkspur, and ~ $1M behind Tiburon. As with any low inventory market, averages are dictated by the supply. February saw the median jump above $3M, for example, but a slow March dragged us down to a $2,640,000 average purchase price. Expect a turn-key home with views to be highly desirable to the current buyer pool.
The Luxury Market
Sausalito's luxury market saw a nice increase in Q1, also. 4 major sales from $3.9M to $5M showed the luxury buyer pool is still seeking legacy properties in Sausalito, even in the face of rate hikes and a cool-off. Luckily, the demographic of buyers for luxury properties in Southern Marin are mostly protected financially from macro-economic events. Expect to see consistent demand for turn-key homes.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
With Sausalito's typical low supply/high demand dynamic, it's hard to see the market slowing down anytime soon.
There are 6 projected rate hike rises between now and Q4 of 2023, which will drastically decrease buying power for buyers in the market, yet the typical buyer we're seeing in Southern Marin is not as affected by macro-environmental conditions as buyers in other markets are.
I would anticipate the condominium market to level off at some point, similar to what we've seen in Mill Valley/Larkspur, but the single-family market should remain strong throughout 2022.
Q4 saw more of the same for Larkspur; severely under-supplied markets in all sectors, and buyers willing to continually drive prices up above previously established highs.
Median single family home values are up $600,000 since 2019, similar to most Marin real estate markets, and there seems to be no slow down in sight. With another ~ $200,000 median price jump in Q4, the market is trending north of $2,650,000 for the first time in history.
For reference, the median value of a home in Larkspur in 2019 was $2,043,000
The condominium market was a rare blip on the radar where values were $100,000 below 2021 values in Q4, but with only 5 data points (sales), I wouldn't be alarmed. Larkspur is one of Marins lowest volume markets which usually creates an excess in demand compared to the supply. Q4 flipped the switch on that economic equation, seeing a significant dip in condominium values for the first time in pandemic years.
The luxury market continues to trend toward a $4M average, with 1 major sale in the quarter at $4,750,000. Similar to the median markets, the luxury housing market has seen steady and continual growth throughout the pandemic, with buyers seeking beautiful estates, shrouded in privacy and peacefulness, but still within arms reach of San Francisco. The value drivers for luxury property have been proximity, walkability, and views.
2022 should see much of the same as 2021.
The key statistics we will use to objectify market data are as follows:
Total Number of House Sales In Q4: 14
Average Monthly Sales In 2021: 6
Average Sale Price Of Houses In Q4: $2,670,000
Average Sale Price In 2021: $2,453,000
Larkspur’s Avg Price Per Square Foot Sold (all property types):
Average Sale Price Of Condominiums In Q4: $642,000
Average Sale Price In 2021: $749,000
Average Days On Market in Q4 (all): 18
Months of Supply (total active listings/monthly sales rate): 0.3
Average Supply in 2021: 0.7
General sentiment from agents: Larkspur had one of the steepest gains of any neighborhood Bay Area wide throughout the pandemic, leading to a heavily undersupplied market with insatiable buyer demand. Values skyrocketed, and really didn’t slow down at all in 2021.
Almost any listing with unique/desirable features will move quickly and sell for top dollar in Q1 of ‘22.
Q4 highlighted the growing concern that the market couldn't maintain such rapid rate of growth in Mill Valley Days on market steadily increased, sales values steadily dropped off, and the market was left reeling after an explosive pandemic period.
The condominium market saw 12 sales record more than $100,000 below the yearly average. Mill Valley's condo market was driven up throughout the pandemic as the <$1M buyer raced away from San Francisco in all directions. Q4 seems to have signified a correction, at least in the condominium market.
The median single family market was down almost $500,000, and the luxury market doubled the amount of time it took to sell a home. Mill Valley was moving at a breakneck pace all 2020 and through summer '21, but began to show signs of a correction in Q3 of '21. This can more than likely be attributed to an oversupplied market. Everyone wanted to capitalize on the gold rush, so more properties were listed than we would see in a regular year (497 in 2021 vs. 410 in 2019).
While desirability in Mill Valley remains high, the market was over supplied toward the end of 2021, as everyone tried to capitalize on the insatiable demand we had been seeing since early 2020. Less desirable listings trying to sell for peak market pricing was the main contributor to deflated market values in Q4.
The key statistics we will use to objectify market data are as follows:
Total Number of House Sales In Q4: 77
Average Monthly Sales In 2021: 3
Average Sale Price Of Houses In Q4: $2,335,000
Average Sale Price In 2021: $2,487,000
Mill Valley’s Avg Price Per Square Foot Sold (all property types):
Average Sale Price Of Condominiums In Q4: $852,000
Average Sale Price In 2021: $991,000
Average Days On Market in Q4 (all): 32
Months of Supply (total active listings/monthly sales rate): 0.3
Average Supply in 2021: 0.8
General sentiment from agents: Mill Valley had one of the steepest gains of any neighborhood Bay Area wide throughout the pandemic, leading to an undersupplied market with fewer and fewer desirable properties coming as the year came to a close.
Buyer demand is still sky high, but certainly less than it was when everyone was racing to evacuate San Francisco looking for relative proximity and serene beauty. Desirable properties will still move quickly, but we might have passed the peak, at least for now.
As the pandemic continues and more people evacuate the city, the condominium market finds itself in a very unfamiliar place. The term buyers market isn’t even appropriate, as there is so much supply of available properties for sale that sellers are now competing with each other to sell their homes to the metaphorical handful of buyers in the market.
As of today, District 9 (downtown and surrounding neighborhoods like Mission Bay, Potrero Hill, SOMA, etc,) has 528 condominiums or TIC’s up for sale, a number that in all my years studying this market I have never seen. Since my previous article about The Next 3 Sales in any given building, pushing for listing agents to fight to retain value for the remaining homeowners within buildings/neighborhoods, the trend of sell-at-any-cost has matured.
A conversation I continually find myself having with clients is this: ‘Some sellers are more willing to let go of their property to extract their capital from the asset and re-purpose elsewhere (outside of the city) rather than hold firm and fight to get the best possible price.’ After all, what’s the difference of $100,000 (a relative number for the SF housing market) if you find yourself trying to sell a property for 6-12 months, living on top of other people in the city when you could be living in the East or North Bay with some acreage, a backyard, and space to work from home in comfort.
We are now experiencing an established Buyers Market.
Traditionally, a 4 months supply of inventory (monthly supply is a metric used to measure how long it takes to sell off all inventory at the current pace of sales) is when it starts to tip from a seller’s market to a buyers market. Some districts in SF are seeing upwards of a 12-month supply, most notably the East Cut & Yerba Buena. The luxury condominium market has been hit the hardest. The expectation of continual and aggressive appreciation for turn-key luxury highrises is facing the bleakest summer in history, with significantly fewer buyers in the market than condos available for sale. Of those buyers in the market, they’re savvy enough to understand the ball is in their court and are aggressively targeting sellers in need of offloading their asset, rather than fighting for pre-established sales value.
San Francisco has notoriously been a competitive seller’s market with owners (and agents) so accustomed to putting their property on the MLS, taking a few nice photos and writing a nice description, then sitting back and watching the hordes of buyers flood open houses, taking offers and putting them into a pile to see who wins. Those days are gone. More importantly, agents still using this strategy to sell homes have been rudely awakened to the stagnancy of the market.
The level of creativity required in marketing assets has been elevated. Listings require something special to make them pop in this market, such as a beautifully crafted storyline to make potential buyers fall in love with the idea of the home and see themselves in it throughout the pandemic and beyond. The lifestyle and neighborhood component of marketing is where the magic is today. Adding models into property marketing videos and painting the picture of the exact lifestyle new owners can come to expect when they live in a home is a good start in that creative process, but offering a truly turn-key lifestyle by updating and optimizing space is the ultimate drawing factor.
How To Capitalize:
For buyers in this market, now is the time to be aggressive in your offers. The number #1 thing your agent should be doing for you now is identifying sellers with a need to sell. A little background research on a seller before touring can provide invaluable insight into their need of selling a property. Families looking to escape the city by selling their primary residence are the highest likelihood for people looking to make a deal happen, closely followed by owners needing to off-load a rental asset to increase liquid capital.
The least likely parties to negotiate are developers, for obvious reasons. However, in some cases, it’s more valuable for developers to keep their money moving than it is to seek top dollar for the property.
It’s not all doom and gloom for owner’s trying to sell, as the most desirable properties at all price points are still flying off the shelves. Owners that spend the time and put in the work required to bring their property up to the typical SF buyers palette are still seeing less than 7 days on market and multiple offers.
The most desirable homes in the current market all include outdoor space, particularly patio’s and backyards. After all, everyone is craving any feeling of being outside their home, and layering in a degree of privacy and the ability to not have to wear a mask while being outdoors is a huge bonus, especially for mental health. The preparation and staging of outdoor spaces has never been as important as is it today. Creating an experience for buyers and agents alike when they enter a home is what will drive continuing interest, separate your home from the next, and capture the imagination of buyers looking for a lifestyle change.
The best outdoor spaces I’ve seen touring the city these past few months are catering less for outdoor entertaining (big dining tables) and more for multiple areas to relax in and work from home. Outdoor beanbags and oversized cushions, fire pits, zen gardens, and as much foliage as possible (even fake) can make an outdoor space feel like an extension of the home we are becoming accustomed to being confined to.
The upgrades and presentation required to get attention, traffic, and ultimately sell a home at the top of the current market almost always requires an investment upfront. Many homeowners are shying away from making the necessary upgrades to make a buyer fall in love with their property during this depreciated market, and rightfully so given the economic climate. With all the uncertainty, it’s ironically more imperative for owners to invest upfront to create more definitive Yes in a buyer’s mind and nudge them to conclude that this is the right home for them.
Our concierge program helps to off-set those fears by providing interest-free loans to invest in property upgrades upfront, at no cost to homeowners. See a property we recently renovated that lead to 4x more traffic (2 showings per day since listed) than other listings in the market.
*Numbers taken from a 1-week comparison between 3 similar listings
The luxury real estate market in Danville, California has been impacted by a variety of factors in recent years, including the COVID-19 pandemic. As one of the most desirable locations in the Bay Area, Danville has traditionally been a hub for high-end real estate sales. However, with the pandemic continuing to shape the housing market in 2023, it's important to consider how trends may shift in the coming months.
According to the Bay Area housing market forecast for 2023, the market is expected to remain strong with continued demand for housing. The report from US News and World Report suggests that low interest rates and high demand will continue to drive up prices. However, the report also notes that the market may begin to shift in response to changing priorities among buyers.
One trend that is likely to continue in 2023 is the shift towards more suburban and rural properties. With many companies continuing to offer remote work options, buyers are looking for homes that offer more space and flexibility, particularly outdoor space. This shift in priorities has led to increased demand for suburban and rural properties, particularly those that offer larger lots and more outdoor amenities.
As a result of this trend, luxury properties in urban and suburban areas may see a decline in demand. Instead, buyers may look to more rural properties that offer more space and more opportunities for outdoor activities. This shift in priorities may be particularly pronounced in the luxury market, where buyers are often more sensitive to economic fluctuations.
Despite these challenges, the luxury real estate market in Danville is expected to remain resilient in 2023. While sales of luxury properties may decline in some areas, there is still strong demand for high-end real estate in the area. This is due in part to the fact that Danville offers a unique combination of natural beauty, excellent schools, and easy access to San Francisco and Silicon Valley.
To navigate the current climate, sellers of luxury properties in Danville are increasingly turning to virtual tours and other digital marketing strategies. These tools allow potential buyers to explore properties from the comfort and safety of their own homes, which is particularly important in the current climate. By leveraging technology, sellers are able to reach a wider audience and showcase their properties in new and innovative ways.
Another strategy that sellers are using to navigate the current climate is to focus on the unique features of their properties. With buyers increasingly looking for outdoor space and other amenities, luxury properties that offer these features may be able to command a premium price. Sellers are also emphasizing the privacy and exclusivity of their properties, which may be particularly attractive to buyers who are looking for a retreat from the hustle and bustle of urban life.
In conclusion, the luxury real estate market in Danville is likely to be impacted by the continued effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2023. With a shift towards more suburban and rural properties, luxury properties in urban and suburban areas may see a decline in demand. However, the market is expected to remain strong overall, with continued demand for high-end real estate in Danville due to its unique combination of natural beauty, excellent schools, and easy access to San Francisco and Silicon Valley. By leveraging technology and emphasizing the unique features of their properties, sellers can navigate the current climate and continue to attract high-end buyers in the coming months.
Luxury real estate in Pacific Heights, San Francisco is experiencing a shift in trends as the Bay Area housing market begins to recover from the pandemic-induced slowdown. According to the Bay Area housing market forecast for 2023, the market is expected to remain strong, with continued demand for high-end properties. This sentiment is echoed in a recent report from SF Standard, which notes that the spring season is expected to bring increased activity and sales to the Bay Area housing market.
The increased availability of COVID-19 vaccines has led to more confidence among buyers and sellers alike, which is expected to translate into increased activity in the luxury real estate market in Pacific Heights. As the economy continues to recover, more buyers are looking to purchase high-end properties in desirable locations like Pacific Heights.
However, the trends that emerged during the pandemic are expected to continue to shape the market in 2023. The desire for more space and privacy is expected to remain strong, particularly as companies continue to offer remote work options. This trend is supported by the SF Standard report, which notes that suburban and rural properties are seeing increased demand as buyers look for more space and privacy.
To appeal to this changing market, sellers of luxury properties in Pacific Heights are emphasizing the unique features of their properties, particularly outdoor space and other amenities. As noted in the Bay Area housing market forecast for 2023, luxury properties that offer these features may be able to command a premium price, particularly as buyers look for more space and opportunities for outdoor activities.
At the same time, the report from SF Standard notes that the Bay Area housing market is becoming increasingly competitive, with more buyers vying for a limited supply of homes. This competition is expected to be particularly pronounced in the luxury market, where buyers are often more discerning and have more specific requirements. As a result, sellers of luxury properties in Pacific Heights are turning to innovative marketing strategies, such as virtual tours and other digital tools, to showcase their properties and reach a wider audience.
Despite these challenges, the luxury real estate market in Pacific Heights is expected to remain strong in 2023, with continued demand for high-end properties. The neighborhood's stunning views, historic architecture, and proximity to some of San Francisco's best restaurants and cultural attractions are just a few of the reasons why it remains a desirable location for luxury home buyers. With the market beginning to recover and the spring season bringing increased activity, now is an opportune time for buyers and sellers alike to explore the luxury real estate opportunities in Pacific Heights.
.JPG)
Tiburon, a picturesque town located in Marin County, California, is known for its stunning views of the San Francisco Bay, high-end homes, and affluent lifestyle. The real estate market in Tiburon has always been strong, and it shows no signs of slowing down anytime soon.
As we move into the an undulating market with interest rate effected buyers, the prospects for Tiburon real estate still looks bright. Here are some of the key factors driving this trend:
Tiburon has always been a magnet for luxury homebuyers, and this trend is expected to continue. The town's stunning scenery and exclusive lifestyle make it a sought-after destination for the affluent. Moreover, with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, many people are rethinking their priorities and looking for larger, more comfortable homes that can also serve as a home office. This trend is expected to continue to drive up demand for luxury homes in Tiburon.
Despite the high demand for luxury homes in Tiburon, there is a limited supply of available properties. This scarcity of inventory has helped to drive up prices and is expected to continue to do so in the future. Additionally, the town has strict zoning laws that limit new construction, which means that the supply of new homes is unlikely to increase significantly in the coming years.
Tiburon is home to many successful businesses and high-net-worth individuals, which has helped to create a strong local economy. This economic strength is expected to continue, which will provide support for the real estate market in the town. Additionally, the town is conveniently located near San Francisco, which is one of the most vibrant economies in the country, providing easy access to high-paying jobs and investment opportunities.
There is an increasing trend towards sustainable living, and Tiburon is no exception. Many luxury homes in the town are equipped with green technology and eco-friendly features, such as solar panels and rainwater harvesting systems. This focus on sustainability is expected to increase in the future, as more people become aware of the importance of reducing their carbon footprint and living in a more environmentally friendly way.
Tiburon is investing in improving its infrastructure, which is expected to boost the value of real estate in the town. The town has recently completed a major renovation of its waterfront, which has helped to enhance the appeal of the area. Additionally, the town is investing in improving its transportation links, including the ferry service that connects Tiburon to San Francisco, making it easier for commuters and visitors to access the town.
In conclusion, the future prospects for Tiburon real estate are bright, with high demand for luxury properties, limited inventory, a strong local economy, a focus on sustainability, and improving infrastructure. These factors are expected to drive up prices and ensure that the town remains a highly sought-after destination for homebuyers in the coming years.
Sausalito, California, has always been a desirable location for luxury real estate, with its picturesque waterfront views, unique charm, and proximity to San Francisco. However, as with many real estate markets, the COVID-19 pandemic has had an impact on the luxury real estate market in Sausalito. Looking forward to 2023, it's important to consider the trends that may shape the market in the coming months.
According to the Bay Area housing market forecast for 2023, the market is expected to remain strong, with continued demand for high-end properties. The report from US News and World Report suggests that low interest rates and high demand will continue to drive up prices. However, the report also notes that the market may begin to shift in response to changing priorities among buyers.
One trend that is likely to continue in 2023 is the shift towards more suburban and rural properties. With many companies continuing to offer remote work options, buyers are looking for homes that offer more space and flexibility, particularly outdoor space. This shift in priorities has led to increased demand for suburban and rural properties, particularly those that offer larger lots and more outdoor amenities.
As a result of this trend, luxury properties in urban and suburban areas may see a decline in demand. Instead, buyers may look to more rural properties that offer more space and more opportunities for outdoor activities. This shift in priorities may be particularly pronounced in the luxury market, where buyers are often more sensitive to economic fluctuations.
Despite these challenges, the luxury real estate market in Sausalito is expected to remain resilient in 2023. While sales of luxury properties may decline in some areas, there is still strong demand for high-end real estate in the area. This is due in part to the fact that Sausalito offers a unique combination of natural beauty, excellent schools, and easy access to San Francisco and Silicon Valley.
To navigate the current climate, sellers of luxury properties in Sausalito are increasingly turning to virtual tours and other digital marketing strategies. These tools allow potential buyers to explore properties from the comfort and safety of their own homes, which is particularly important in the current climate. By leveraging technology, sellers are able to reach a wider audience and showcase their properties in new and innovative ways.
Another strategy that sellers are using to navigate the current climate is to focus on the unique features of their properties. With buyers increasingly looking for outdoor space and other amenities, luxury properties that offer these features may be able to command a premium price. Sellers are also emphasizing the privacy and exclusivity of their properties, which may be particularly attractive to buyers who are looking for a retreat from the hustle and bustle of urban life.
In conclusion, the luxury real estate market in Sausalito is likely to be impacted by the continued effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2023. With a shift towards more suburban and rural properties, luxury properties in urban and suburban areas may see a decline in demand. However, the market is expected to remain strong overall, with continued demand for high-end real estate in Sausalito due to its unique combination of natural beauty, excellent schools, and easy access to San Francisco and Silicon Valley. By leveraging technology and emphasizing the unique features of their properties, sellers can navigate the current climate and continue to attract high-end buyers in the coming months.
As spring brings new signs of life to the Bay Area housing market, luxury real estate in Mill Valley, California is also experiencing a shift in trends. According to the Bay Area housing market forecast for 2023, the market is expected to remain strong, with continued demand for high-end properties. This sentiment is echoed in a recent report from SF Standard, which notes that the Bay Area housing market is beginning to recover from the pandemic-induced slowdown and that the spring season is expected to bring increased activity and sales.
One factor driving this recovery is the increased availability of COVID-19 vaccines, which has led to more confidence among buyers and sellers alike. This increased confidence is expected to translate into increased activity in the luxury real estate market in Mill Valley, with more buyers looking to purchase high-end properties as the economy continues to recover.
At the same time, the trends that emerged during the pandemic are expected to continue to shape the market in 2023. The desire for more suburban and rural properties is expected to remain strong, particularly as companies continue to offer remote work options. This trend is supported by the SF Standard report, which notes that suburban and rural properties are seeing increased demand as buyers look for more space and privacy.
To appeal to this changing market, sellers of luxury properties in Mill Valley are increasingly emphasizing the unique features of their properties, particularly outdoor space and other amenities. As noted in the Bay Area housing market forecast for 2023, luxury properties that offer these features may be able to command a premium price, particularly as buyers look for more space and opportunities for outdoor activities.
At the same time, the report from SF Standard notes that the Bay Area housing market is becoming increasingly competitive, with more buyers vying for a limited supply of homes. This competition is expected to be particularly pronounced in the luxury market, where buyers are often more discerning and have more specific requirements. As a result, sellers of luxury properties in Mill Valley are turning to innovative marketing strategies, such as virtual tours and other digital tools, to showcase their properties and reach a wider audience.
Despite these challenges, the luxury real estate market in Mill Valley is expected to remain strong in 2023, with continued demand for high-end properties. The unique combination of natural beauty, excellent schools, and easy access to San Francisco is expected to continue to attract high-end buyers to the area. With the market beginning to recover and the spring season bringing increased activity, now is an opportune time for buyers and sellers alike to explore the luxury real estate opportunities in Mill Valley.
The luxury real estate market in San Rafael, California is undergoing some changes as the Bay Area housing market begins to recover from the pandemic-induced slowdown. According to the Bay Area housing market forecast for 2023, the market is expected to remain strong with sustained demand for high-end properties. However, a recent article from the Mercury News reports that the median home price in Marin County, which includes San Rafael, has dipped to $1.5 million in early 2023.
While the dip in median home prices may seem alarming, it's important to note that the luxury real estate market is not directly tied to median home prices. In fact, luxury properties often operate on a different market cycle with distinct trends and demands. The desire for more space and privacy, for example, is expected to remain strong among luxury home buyers, especially with the continued availability of remote work options.
Despite the dip in median home prices, luxury properties in San Rafael are still in high demand. Buyers are still looking for high-end properties that offer unique features, such as outdoor space and other luxury amenities. In fact, luxury properties that offer these features may even be able to command a premium price in the market, as buyers look for more space and opportunities for outdoor activities.
To appeal to this changing market, sellers of luxury properties in San Rafael are emphasizing the unique features of their properties and using innovative marketing strategies, such as virtual tours and other digital tools, to showcase their homes. With the market becoming increasingly competitive, sellers need to stand out and showcase the unique features of their luxury properties.
The Mercury News article also notes that the supply of homes for sale in Marin County remains low, with many buyers finding it difficult to find the right property. This competition is expected to continue in the luxury real estate market, where buyers are often more discerning and have more specific requirements. As a result, sellers of luxury properties in San Rafael need to work even harder to showcase the unique features of their homes and reach a wider audience.
Despite the challenges posed by the dip in median home prices and the competitive market, the luxury real estate market in San Rafael is still expected to remain strong in 2023, with continued demand for high-end properties. The neighborhood's proximity to San Francisco and other desirable locations, as well as its natural beauty and high-end amenities, make it an attractive location for luxury home buyers. With the market beginning to recover and the spring season bringing increased activity, now is an opportune time for buyers and sellers alike to explore the luxury real estate opportunities in San Rafael.
The recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) has sent shockwaves through the affordable housing market, raising concerns about the availability of financing for new housing projects. As a key player in the affordable housing space, SVB's sudden downfall has left many developers and investors scrambling to find alternative sources of funding. San Francisco recently committed to a plan to add 82,000 housing units by 2031 accoridng to The Real Deal.
Despite this setback, San Francisco officials remain committed to addressing the city's housing shortage and improving affordability for residents. The successful completion of the housing element plan, coupled with ongoing efforts to streamline the approval process for new developments and increase funding for affordable housing, has helped to create a strong foundation for continued progress in the housing sector.
However, the collapse of SVB highlights the need for increased vigilance and caution in the affordable housing market, as well as the importance of diversifying funding sources to mitigate risk. While the full extent of the impact of SVB's collapse on the housing market remains to be seen, San Francisco officials are working to address the situation and ensure that financing remains available for new housing projects.
The city's successful completion of its housing element plan is a significant achievement, outlining how San Francisco plans to address its housing shortage in the coming years. The plan is a crucial component of the city's overall housing strategy, and its completion marks a significant step forward in improving affordability for residents.
To meet the deadline for updating the housing element plan, San Francisco had to overcome significant obstacles and work quickly and efficiently. City officials credit a number of factors for their success, including a streamlined approval process for new housing developments, increased funding for affordable housing, and a renewed focus on collaboration between city agencies and community groups.
Despite the challenges posed by the collapse of SVB, San Francisco's ongoing efforts to address its housing needs represent a positive sign for the city's future. By remaining vigilant and adaptable in the face of adversity, officials and industry stakeholders can work together to ensure that affordable housing remains a key priority in the years ahead.
If you have any questions, text me.
.jpeg)
Since the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a significant exodus of people from San Francisco, resulting in a shift in the luxury real estate trends in neighboring cities like Mill Valley and Southern Marin County. As people look for more space, privacy, and a quieter lifestyle, they are turning to areas like Mill Valley, which offers a combination of natural beauty, outdoor activities, and high-end amenities.
Even with recent instability in the financial markets, the luxury real estate market in Mill Valley hasn't seen as much of a fall off as surrounding luxury markets, a testament to the desirability of the city.
This shift in post-pandemic demand has caused the Mill Valley luxury real estate market to surge, with an increase in prices and competition for properties. The demand is particularly high for properties with spacious outdoor areas, home offices, and proximity to hiking and biking trails.
First and foremost, the pandemic has forced many people to spend more time at home. With offices, schools, and other public spaces limited in capacity, people are spending more time in their homes than ever before. This has made space a valuable commodity, as families need room to work, study, exercise, and relax without feeling cramped or crowded.
As a result of these factors, there has been a significant increase in demand for larger homes with more square footage. In Mill Valley, many buyers are looking for homes with four or more bedrooms, multiple living areas, and outdoor spaces. These types of properties offer the space and flexibility that families need to adapt to the challenges of the pandemic.
With more people at home all the time, it can be difficult to find a quiet place to work or study, especially in households with multiple people. Having a dedicated home office or study room can help create a sense of privacy and separation, which can be especially important for people who need to attend virtual meetings or classes.
Additionally, the pandemic has created a desire for outdoor space. This has led to a surge in demand for houses with large yards, patios, and outdoor living areas. These spaces provide a safe and private place for families to enjoy fresh air and sunshine without having to venture out into public spaces.
The rise of remote work has also contributed to the shift in real estate trends. With many companies adopting work-from-home policies, people are no longer tied to living in or near urban centers like San Francisco. Instead, they can live further out in areas like Mill Valley and still have access to employment opportunities, albeit from a remote location.
Overall, the current luxury real estate trends in Mill Valley reflect a desire for more space, privacy, and access to nature, which have become even more important in the wake of the pandemic. As remote work continues to gain popularity, it is likely that these trends will persist in the coming years.
If you have any questions, text me.
If you're looking to sell a property that's currently being rented out, you may be wondering if it's possible to sell the property while the tenants are still occupying it in San Francisco & Marin. The answer is yes, but there are some important things to keep in mind to ensure that you're following the law and respecting your tenants' rights. Having the tenants on your side is a valuable component of moving an occupied property in the current market climate.
Provide Adequate Notice to Your Tenants
Before you start showing the property to potential buyers, you'll need to provide your tenants with adequate notice. In California, landlords are required to give at least 24 hours' written notice before entering a rental property, including for showings. However, it's always a good idea to give your tenants even more notice than required to be respectful of their privacy and schedule.
Be Mindful of Your Tenants' Comfort and Privacy
During the sales process, it's important to be mindful of your tenants' comfort and privacy. Work with your real estate agent to schedule showings at times that are convenient for your tenants, such as on weekends or during the evening hours. Make sure the property is clean and well-maintained before showings to ensure that your tenants are comfortable with potential buyers coming into their home.
California Tenant Law: Understanding Your Obligations
If your tenants have a lease agreement that extends beyond the date of the sale, you'll need to honor the terms of the lease. This means that the new owner of the property will become the landlord and will be responsible for fulfilling the obligations of the lease, such as collecting rent and maintaining the property.
In California, there are additional tenant protections that you'll need to be aware of if you're selling a rental property. With the current eviction moratorium climate in San Francisco and surrounding counties, evictions prior to sale aren’t advised, or really possible. If your tenants have a lease that ends after the sale, you'll need to provide them with written notice of the new owner's name and contact information.
Marketing An Occupied Property
Similar to other property listings; the better presented a property is, the more attention it will garner. The challenge is trying to present ‘other peoples stuff’ in listing photos. Legal ramifications aside, unless your tenants have quite the design eye, a property rarely looks like they do on Zillow with professional staging & photography. Luckily, with the advancement of rendering technology, it's easily possible to scrub interior photos completely clean of furniture & stuff, replacing with stylish, graphic renderings of brand new furniture in place of the old. We do this for every listing, here’s a good example of the power of virtual staging:
Who Are Prospective Buyers In The Current Market:
Given tenant occupied properties have many nuances, the buyer pool they appeal to is also quite segmented. Below are a few (not all) of the buyer types, and what they’re typically looking for:
Portfolio Investors:
These buyers are typically wealthier individuals, or groups/syndications looking for properties with strong cash flow, a high cap rate (4.64% was the avg. cap rate sold in San Francisco in 2022) and long term tenant contracts in place. Portfolio investors typically want a long runway of current numbers (eg. long term leases in place) and not need to make any immediate changes/upgrades to the property
FHA/Owner occupants:
FHA loan limits allow a buyer to purchase duplexes, triplexes and quad-plexes with as little as 3.5% down. The terms of the loan require buyers to occupy one of the units for a minimum of 12 months. These buyers are typically outpriced in the 20% down market, or are savvy investors and looking to build their real estate portfolio. If your property has one unit vacant, it may qualify for FHA financing, thus massively increasing the pool of buyers that might be interested.
Bottom Line
Selling a house with renters is possible, but it requires careful planning and compliance with California tenant laws. Always provide your tenants with adequate notice before showings, be respectful of their privacy and comfort during the sales process, and make sure you understand your obligations under any existing lease agreements. With these steps in mind, you can successfully sell your rental property while maintaining positive relationships with your tenants.
Call Tim if you have specific questions; 415 691 9272
Tiburon is a charming town located in Marin County, California, situated on the Tiburon Peninsula, just north of San Francisco. The town covers an area of approximately 4.4 square miles, with a population of around 9,000 residents. Tiburon is known for its spectacular waterfront views, quaint streets, and small-town charm. It is a popular destination for tourists and locals alike, offering a range of activities, restaurants, and shops.
The town of Tiburon has a rich history, dating back to the mid-1800s. Originally known as "Potrero de San Tiburcio," the area was used for grazing cattle and farming. In the late 1800s, the town began to develop as a shipping and transportation hub, with a ferry service that transported passengers and goods to San Francisco. Today, Tiburon remains a transportation hub, with the ferry still providing a popular way to get to and from San Francisco.
Tiburon's downtown area is home to a variety of shops, restaurants, and galleries. One of the town's most popular attractions is Main Street, which is lined with historic buildings and offers views of the bay. The street is home to many popular restaurants and cafes, such as Sam's Anchor Cafe, which has been a local favorite for over 90 years. Visitors can also browse through the many art galleries and boutique shops that line Main Street.
One of the most popular things to do in Tiburon is to take a stroll along the waterfront. The town offers several parks and paths that provide stunning views of the bay and San Francisco skyline. One popular spot is the Tiburon Linear Park, a mile-long walking path that runs along the waterfront. Visitors can also take a scenic hike up to the top of Ring Mountain, which offers panoramic views of the bay and surrounding hills.
Tiburon is also home to several historic landmarks, such as the Old St. Hilary's Church, a beautiful Victorian-era church that has been preserved and is open to the public. The town also has several museums, including the Railroad & Ferry Depot Museum, which showcases the town's history as a transportation hub.
For those who love outdoor activities, Tiburon offers a range of options. Visitors can rent kayaks or paddleboards to explore the bay, or take a guided tour with one of the many local outfitters. Fishing and sailing are also popular activities in Tiburon, with several charter companies offering trips and tours.
In addition to its many attractions, Tiburon is also known for its beautiful homes and stunning views. The town has several upscale neighborhoods, many of which offer panoramic views of the bay and surrounding hills. One of the most exclusive neighborhoods is the gated community of Paradise Cay, which is home to some of the area's most expensive properties.
Overall, Tiburon is a charming town with a rich history and a range of activities and attractions for visitors to enjoy. Its stunning waterfront views, quaint streets, and small-town charm make it a must-visit destination for anyone visiting the San Francisco Bay Area.
Sausalito is a picturesque city located in Marin County, California, just across the Golden Gate Bridge from San Francisco. The city covers an area of approximately 2.3 square miles and has a population of around 7,000 residents. Sausalito is known for its Mediterranean-style architecture, scenic waterfront, and charming small-town vibe. It's a popular destination for tourists and locals alike, offering a range of activities, restaurants, and shops.
The city of Sausalito has a rich history that dates back to the early 1800s when it was a small fishing village. During the Gold Rush era of the mid-1800s, Sausalito became a hub for shipping and transportation, with goods and passengers arriving from all over the world. Today, the city remains a transportation hub, with ferry service providing a popular way to get to and from San Francisco.
Sausalito's downtown area is home to a variety of shops, restaurants, and galleries. One of the town's most popular attractions is Bridgeway, a scenic waterfront street that offers stunning views of San Francisco Bay. The street is lined with historic buildings and is home to many popular restaurants and cafes, such as the iconic Spinnaker restaurant, which offers panoramic views of the bay.
One of the most popular things to do in Sausalito is to take a stroll along the waterfront. The city offers several parks and paths that provide stunning views of the bay and San Francisco skyline. One popular spot is the Sausalito Boardwalk, a wooden boardwalk that runs along the waterfront and is home to several outdoor cafes and shops. Visitors can also take a scenic hike up to the top of nearby Mount Tamalpais, which offers panoramic views of the bay and surrounding hills.
Sausalito is also home to several historic landmarks, such as the Bay Model Visitor Center, which features a working hydraulic model of San Francisco Bay. The city also has several art galleries and museums, including the Bay Area Discovery Museum, which offers interactive exhibits for children.
For those who love outdoor activities, Sausalito offers a range of options. Visitors can rent kayaks or paddleboards to explore the bay, or take a guided tour with one of the many local outfitters. Fishing and sailing are also popular activities in Sausalito, with several charter companies offering trips and tours.
In addition to its many attractions, Sausalito is also known for its beautiful homes and stunning views. The city has several upscale neighborhoods, many of which offer panoramic views of the bay and surrounding hills. One of the most exclusive neighborhoods is the hillside community of Marin Vista, which is home to some of the area's most expensive properties.
Overall, Sausalito is a charming city with a rich history and a range of activities and attractions for visitors to enjoy. Its stunning waterfront views, charming small-town vibe, and proximity to San Francisco make it a must-visit destination for anyone visiting the San Francisco Bay Area.
Mill Valley is a charming town located in Marin County, California, just a short drive north of San Francisco. The town is nestled among the rolling hills and redwoods of Mount Tamalpais, offering a beautiful natural setting and a unique small-town vibe. Mill Valley has a population of around 14,000 residents and covers an area of approximately 4.8 square miles.
The town of Mill Valley has a rich history that dates back to the mid-1800s when it was founded as a small logging and farming community. In the early 1900s, Mill Valley became a popular destination for artists and writers, who were drawn to the town's beautiful scenery and creative community. Today, Mill Valley is still known for its artistic and cultural heritage, as well as its natural beauty and outdoor recreation opportunities.
One of the main attractions in Mill Valley is the Mount Tamalpais State Park, which covers over 6,000 acres of land and offers miles of hiking and biking trails, as well as stunning panoramic views of the Bay Area. The park is home to several campgrounds, picnic areas, and scenic overlooks, and is a popular destination for outdoor enthusiasts of all ages. Visitors can also explore the Muir Woods National Monument, which is located just a short drive from Mill Valley and is home to some of the tallest trees in the world.
Another popular destination in Mill Valley is the downtown area, which is home to several restaurants, shops, and art galleries. One of the most iconic buildings in downtown Mill Valley is the Mill Valley Depot, which was built in 1890 and is now home to a restaurant and event space. The downtown area is also home to the historic Sweetwater Music Hall, which has hosted many famous musicians over the years and continues to be a popular destination for live music and entertainment.
One of the most unique features of Mill Valley is its eclectic mix of architectural styles, ranging from historic Victorian homes to modernist masterpieces. Some of the most notable examples of modernist architecture in Mill Valley include the homes designed by architects such as Joseph Esherick, William Wurster, and Charles Moore. These homes feature clean lines, simple forms, and a strong connection to the surrounding natural environment, reflecting the town's commitment to preserving its natural beauty and promoting sustainable living.
Mill Valley is also known for its excellent public schools, which are consistently ranked among the top schools in the state. The Mill Valley School District includes five elementary schools, one middle school, and one high school, all of which are known for their strong academic programs and supportive community.
For those who enjoy cultural events and festivals, Mill Valley offers several options throughout the year. The Mill Valley Film Festival, which takes place every October, is one of the most popular events in the town and attracts filmmakers and movie enthusiasts from around the world. The Mill Valley Arts Festival, which takes place every September, is another popular event that features the work of over 140 artists and craftsmen.
Overall, Mill Valley is a beautiful and unique town that offers something for everyone. Whether you're interested in outdoor recreation, arts and culture, or simply enjoying the town's beautiful natural setting, Mill Valley is a must-visit destination in the San Francisco Bay Area. Its rich history, vibrant community, and commitment to sustainability make it a truly special place to visit or call home.
Larkspur is a charming town located in Marin County, California, just north of San Francisco. The town is known for its picturesque setting, historic buildings, and vibrant community. With a population of around 12,000 residents and an area of approximately 3.2 square miles, Larkspur offers a small-town atmosphere that is both welcoming and distinctive.
The town of Larkspur has a rich history that dates back to the mid-1800s when it was founded as a stop along the Northwestern Pacific Railroad. The town grew quickly and became a hub for agriculture and commerce, with many businesses and industries setting up shop in the area. Today, Larkspur is known for its historic downtown district, which features many well-preserved buildings from the town's early days, including the Larkspur Landing, which is a National Historic Landmark.
One of the main attractions in Larkspur is the downtown area, which is home to several restaurants, shops, and galleries. The area is particularly known for its charming architecture, which includes a mix of Victorian, Italianate, and other historic styles. One of the most iconic buildings in downtown Larkspur is the Lark Theater, which was built in 1936 and is now a popular destination for movies, live music, and other cultural events.
Another popular destination in Larkspur is the Marin Country Mart, which is a shopping center that features several high-end boutiques, restaurants, and cafes. The Marin Country Mart is known for its beautiful outdoor setting, which includes several landscaped courtyards and gardens, as well as a farmers' market that takes place every Saturday.
Larkspur is also home to several parks and open spaces, including the Baltimore Canyon Open Space Preserve, which features over 1,000 acres of hiking and biking trails, as well as stunning views of Mount Tamalpais and the surrounding hills. Other popular parks in Larkspur include Piper Park, which features several sports fields and playgrounds, and King Mountain Open Space Preserve, which is a favorite destination for hikers and nature lovers.
One of the most unique features of Larkspur is its commitment to sustainability and environmentalism. The town has implemented several programs and initiatives aimed at reducing its carbon footprint and promoting sustainable living, including a bike share program, a community garden, and a zero-waste initiative. Larkspur is also home to several LEED-certified buildings, which are designed to be energy-efficient and environmentally friendly.
For those who enjoy cultural events and festivals, Larkspur offers several options throughout the year. The Larkspur Flower & Food Festival, which takes place every June, is one of the most popular events in the town and features live music, food vendors, and a parade. The Larkspur Art & Wine Festival, which takes place every September, is another popular event that features the work of local artists and wineries.
Overall, Larkspur is a beautiful and vibrant town that offers something for everyone. Whether you're interested in exploring the town's rich history, enjoying its natural beauty, or simply soaking up its small-town charm, Larkspur is a must-visit destination in the San Francisco Bay Area. Its commitment to sustainability, cultural events, and community engagement make it a truly special place to visit or call home.
San Rafael is a vibrant and diverse city located in Marin County, California. It is the county seat and the largest city in Marin County, with a population of approximately 59,000 residents. San Rafael is known for its rich history, cultural diversity, and beautiful natural surroundings, making it a popular destination for visitors and a desirable place to live for locals.
The history of San Rafael dates back to the 19th century when it was founded as a mission town by Spanish missionaries. Over time, San Rafael grew and became a hub for agriculture, transportation, and commerce. Today, San Rafael is a thriving city with a diverse economy that includes technology, healthcare, and tourism.
One of the main attractions in San Rafael is its charming downtown area, which features a mix of historic buildings, shops, restaurants, and cultural institutions. The city is known for its vibrant arts scene, which includes several galleries, theaters, and music venues. One of the most iconic buildings in downtown San Rafael is the Mission San Rafael Arcangel, which was founded in 1817 and is now a popular destination for history buffs and architecture enthusiasts.
Another popular destination in San Rafael is the Marin County Civic Center, which was designed by renowned architect Frank Lloyd Wright. The Civic Center is a stunning example of modern architecture and features several unique buildings, including a courthouse, a library, and an administration building. The Civic Center is also home to several cultural institutions, including the Marin Center, which hosts concerts, plays, and other events throughout the year.
San Rafael is also home to several parks and open spaces, including the China Camp State Park, which features over 1,500 acres of hiking and biking trails, as well as stunning views of San Pablo Bay. Other popular parks in San Rafael include the McInnis Park, which features several sports fields and picnic areas, and the Gerstle Park, which is a favorite destination for families and dog owners.
For those who enjoy cultural events and festivals, San Rafael offers several options throughout the year. The Pacifics baseball team, which plays at the Albert Park, is a favorite destination for sports fans, while the San Rafael Food and Wine Festival, which takes place every June, is a popular event that features local cuisine and wine. Other popular events in San Rafael include the Italian Street Painting Festival, which takes place every June, and the Art Works Downtown Second Fridays, which is a monthly art walk that showcases the work of local artists.
One of the most unique features of San Rafael is its commitment to sustainability and environmentalism. The city has implemented several programs and initiatives aimed at reducing its carbon footprint and promoting sustainable living, including a bike share program, a community garden, and a zero-waste initiative. San Rafael is also home to several LEED-certified buildings, which are designed to be energy-efficient and environmentally friendly.
Overall, San Rafael is a beautiful and diverse city that offers something for everyone. Whether you're interested in exploring the city's rich history, enjoying its natural beauty, or simply soaking up its vibrant culture, San Rafael is a must-visit destination in the San Francisco Bay Area. Its commitment to sustainability, cultural events, and community engagement make it a truly special place to visit or call home.
Pacific Heights is a neighborhood in San Francisco, California, known for its stunning views of the city and the bay, upscale homes, and charming streets lined with trees. It is one of the city's most affluent neighborhoods, attracting residents who appreciate its elegant Victorian and Edwardian architecture, world-class restaurants, and boutique shops. Pacific Heights is a highly desirable place to live, work, and visit, offering a mix of urban amenities and natural beauty.
The history of Pacific Heights dates back to the late 19th century when the neighborhood was developed by wealthy families who sought to escape the crowded and polluted downtown area. They built grand mansions and stately homes along the hills overlooking the city, creating a picturesque neighborhood that remains one of the most coveted addresses in San Francisco. Today, Pacific Heights is a mix of historic mansions and modern luxury homes, with tree-lined streets that offer stunning views of the city and the bay.
One of the main attractions in Pacific Heights is the neighborhood's architecture. The area is known for its elegant Victorian and Edwardian homes, many of which have been lovingly restored and maintained over the years. The neighborhood features a mix of architectural styles, including Italianate, Queen Anne, and Stick-style, among others. Some of the most iconic buildings in Pacific Heights include the Haas-Lilienthal House, a beautifully preserved Victorian home that is now a museum, and the Spreckels Mansion, a grand mansion that was once owned by sugar magnate Adolph Spreckels.
Another popular attraction in Pacific Heights is its vibrant dining scene. The neighborhood is home to several world-class restaurants, including the Michelin-starred Spruce, which offers upscale American cuisine in an elegant setting, and State Bird Provisions, a popular restaurant that serves creative small plates and cocktails. Other popular restaurants in Pacific Heights include the Japanese-inspired Roka Akor, the French bistro La Folie, and the Italian restaurant Delfina.
For those who enjoy shopping, Pacific Heights offers a mix of high-end boutiques and independent shops. Fillmore Street is the main shopping street in the neighborhood, featuring a mix of luxury brands like Marc Jacobs and Tory Burch, as well as local shops like the boutique fragrance store Le Labo and the artisanal chocolatier Socola Chocolatier. Other popular shopping destinations in Pacific Heights include the upscale department store Gump's and the luxury home goods store Jonathan Adler.
One of the most unique features of Pacific Heights is its natural beauty. The neighborhood is located on a hill overlooking the city and the bay, offering stunning views that are unmatched anywhere else in San Francisco. Residents and visitors alike can enjoy scenic walks along the neighborhood's tree-lined streets, taking in the sights and sounds of the city while surrounded by natural beauty. The neighborhood is also home to several parks, including Lafayette Park, which features a playground, tennis courts, and a dog park.
Overall, Pacific Heights is a beautiful and sophisticated neighborhood that offers a mix of urban amenities and natural beauty. Its elegant architecture, world-class restaurants, and upscale shops make it a highly desirable place to live, while its stunning views and tree-lined streets offer a peaceful retreat from the hustle and bustle of the city. Whether you're interested in exploring the neighborhood's history and architecture, enjoying its dining and shopping, or simply taking in its natural beauty, Pacific Heights is a must-visit destination in San Francisco.
The Marina is a bustling neighborhood located in the northern part of San Francisco, California. Known for its affluent population and upscale atmosphere, the area is a hub for outdoor recreation, shopping, dining, and nightlife. With its prime location on the water and close proximity to some of the city's most popular attractions, The Marina has become a popular destination for tourists and locals alike.
The Marina was built on what was once a marshy area of the city, but has since been transformed into a vibrant neighborhood with a distinctive character. It is bordered by the Golden Gate Bridge to the northwest, the Presidio to the west, the Russian Hill neighborhood to the south, and the bay to the north and east. The neighborhood is primarily residential, with a mix of single-family homes and multi-unit buildings.
One of the main draws of The Marina is its stunning views of the Golden Gate Bridge and the San Francisco Bay. The waterfront area, known as Marina Green, is a popular spot for locals and tourists to picnic, jog, walk their dogs, and enjoy outdoor activities such as sailing and windsurfing. From here, visitors can also catch a ferry to nearby destinations such as Alcatraz Island or Sausalito.
Chestnut Street is the main commercial thoroughfare of The Marina, offering an array of shopping and dining options. The street is lined with trendy boutiques, artisanal food markets, and upscale restaurants. One popular spot is A16, an Italian restaurant that serves authentic Neapolitan pizza and a wide selection of Italian wines. Another popular destination is The Plant Cafe Organic, a health-focused restaurant that serves organic, vegetarian and vegan fare.
The Marina is also home to the Palace of Fine Arts, an iconic landmark of San Francisco. The Palace was built for the 1915 Panama-Pacific Exposition and is one of the few remaining structures from the fair. Today, it is a popular destination for photography and events, and the surrounding park is a popular spot for picnics and outdoor gatherings.
Another notable attraction in The Marina is the Wave Organ, an interactive acoustic sculpture that uses the sound of the waves to create musical tones. Located on a jetty in the bay, the Wave Organ is a unique and fascinating installation that is worth a visit.
Despite its upscale reputation, The Marina also has a thriving nightlife scene. Many of the bars and nightclubs in the area are geared towards a younger crowd, with a lively atmosphere and a variety of music genres. Some popular spots include the Tipsy Pig, a gastropub with a large selection of craft beers and cocktails, and the MatrixFillmore, a nightclub that has been a staple of the San Francisco nightlife scene for over 20 years.
The Marina is also home to several annual events and festivals that draw visitors from all over the city. One such event is the San Francisco Fleet Week, a celebration of the nation's military that features an air show, ship tours, and other military demonstrations. Another popular event is the annual Bay to Breakers footrace, which begins in the Financial District and ends in The Marina.
Overall, The Marina is a dynamic and exciting neighborhood that offers something for everyone. With its stunning waterfront views, vibrant commercial scene, and lively nightlife, it is no wonder that it has become one of the most popular destinations in San Francisco. Whether you are a first-time visitor or a long-time resident, The Marina is definitely worth exploring.
Located in the heart of San Francisco, Russian Hill is a neighborhood known for its hilly streets, stunning views, and historic landmarks. The neighborhood is bordered by North Beach to the east, Pacific Heights to the west, Nob Hill to the south, and Fisherman's Wharf to the north. It is known for its steep, winding streets, including the famous Lombard Street, which attracts tourists from all over the world.
Russian Hill is one of San Francisco's most prestigious neighborhoods, and it has a rich history that dates back to the city's earliest days. The area was named after the Russian fur traders who once lived there in the early 19th century, and it has been a fashionable neighborhood ever since.
The neighborhood is home to a variety of architectural styles, ranging from Victorian and Edwardian homes to modern, glass-walled apartments. It is known for its charming streets and staircases, which offer residents and visitors a unique way to explore the neighborhood.
One of the most famous landmarks in Russian Hill is Lombard Street, known as the "Crookedest Street in the World." The street is famous for its steep, winding curves, which were designed to make it easier for cars to navigate the steep hill. Lombard Street attracts tourists from all over the world, who come to take pictures of the colorful flowers and stunning views of the city.
Another famous landmark in Russian Hill is the San Francisco Art Institute, a prestigious art school that has produced many famous artists over the years. The school is located in a historic building on Chestnut Street, and it offers a wide range of courses in art and design.
Russian Hill is also home to a variety of restaurants, cafes, and shops. Polk Street, in particular, is known for its vibrant nightlife, with a variety of bars and clubs that attract both locals and tourists. The neighborhood is also home to a number of parks and green spaces, including the Alice Marble Park, which offers stunning views of the city and the bay.
One of the unique features of Russian Hill is the many staircases and pathways that connect the different streets and neighborhoods in the area. These staircases offer a unique way to explore the neighborhood and enjoy its stunning views, and they are a popular destination for locals and visitors alike.
Russian Hill has a strong sense of community, with a variety of neighborhood associations and community groups that work to preserve the area's historic landmarks and promote local businesses. The Russian Hill Improvement Association, for example, works to beautify the neighborhood and promote local events and activities.
The neighborhood is also known for its strong sense of social activism, with many residents actively involved in issues such as affordable housing, environmental protection, and social justice. The Russian Hill Neighbors group, for example, works to promote community involvement and social responsibility in the neighborhood.
Despite its popularity and prestige, Russian Hill is also a neighborhood with a diverse population, with a mix of young professionals, families, and retirees. The area has a relatively high cost of living, but it offers residents a high quality of life and a strong sense of community.
Overall, Russian Hill is a unique and vibrant neighborhood that offers residents and visitors a taste of San Francisco's rich history, stunning views, and dynamic culture. Whether you're a local or a tourist, the neighborhood is well worth a visit, and its charming streets, historic landmarks, and diverse community are sure to leave a lasting impression.
North Beach, also known as "Little Italy," is a vibrant and colorful neighborhood located in the northeastern part of San Francisco. This neighborhood is known for its Italian-American heritage, stunning views of the bay and Coit Tower, and rich cultural history. With its narrow, winding streets, historic architecture, and bustling restaurants and cafes, North Beach is a favorite destination for locals and visitors alike.
North Beach has a fascinating history, dating back to the early days of San Francisco. In the mid-19th century, the area was home to a large number of Italian immigrants who came to San Francisco to work on the city's growing waterfront. Over time, the Italian-American community in North Beach grew and thrived, giving rise to a rich cultural legacy that can still be seen today. Today, North Beach is home to some of San Francisco's most iconic landmarks, including Coit Tower, Washington Square Park, and the Transamerica Pyramid.
One of the most popular attractions in North Beach is Coit Tower, a 210-foot tower that offers breathtaking views of San Francisco and the Bay. Built in 1933, the tower was a gift to the city from Lillie Hitchcock Coit, a wealthy socialite who left a significant sum of money in her will to fund a civic project. Today, visitors can take the elevator to the top of the tower for panoramic views of the city, or explore the colorful murals that line the walls of the tower's ground floor.
Another popular destination in North Beach is Washington Square Park, a public park that serves as the heart of the neighborhood. The park is a popular spot for locals and visitors to relax and soak up the sun, and it's also home to several annual events, including the North Beach Festival and the Italian Heritage Parade.
North Beach is also famous for its restaurants and cafes, which offer a wide variety of Italian cuisine and other international dishes. From traditional Italian restaurants like the legendary Tosca Cafe, which has been a neighborhood staple since 1919, to modern cafes like Cafe Trieste, which has been serving up delicious espresso drinks and pastries since 1956, North Beach is a food lover's paradise. The neighborhood is also home to several popular bars and nightclubs, including Vesuvio Cafe, which has been a favorite hangout for artists, writers, and poets since the 1950s.
In addition to its many attractions and cultural landmarks, North Beach is also known for its vibrant arts scene. The neighborhood is home to several galleries and performance spaces, including the Beat Museum, which celebrates the legacy of the Beat Generation writers who called North Beach home in the 1950s and 1960s.
One of the unique features of North Beach is its diverse architecture. The neighborhood is home to a mix of historic buildings, modern high-rises, and charming, Victorian-era homes. Many of the homes in North Beach are built on hillsides, which gives the neighborhood a distinctive, hilly feel. The neighborhood is also known for its colorful, ornate fire escapes, which can be seen on many of the neighborhood's historic buildings.
North Beach is also home to several well-regarded schools, including the San Francisco Art Institute, which has been a center for artistic expression and experimentation since its founding in 1871. The neighborhood is also home to several public and private elementary and middle schools, including St. Peter and Paul School, which is run by the Archdiocese of San Francisco.
Despite its many attractions and amenities, North Beach has not been immune to the challenges facing San Francisco in recent years. Like many neighborhoods in the city, North Beach has seen rising housing costs, a shortage of affordable housing, and increased homelessness. Despite these challenges, however, North Beach remains a vibrant and beloved neighborhood that attracts visitors
Located in Marin County, California, Fairfax is a small town with a population of approximately 7,500 residents. The town has a rich history, vibrant community, and an eclectic mix of shops, restaurants, and cultural attractions. In this description of Fairfax, we will explore the town's history, notable landmarks, community events, and natural beauty, drawing on local insight from official town websites, online resources, and community members.
History
Fairfax was originally inhabited by the Coast Miwok people for thousands of years before Spanish colonizers arrived in the area in the 1700s. The town was established in the late 1800s and was named after Lord Charles Snowden Fairfax, a prominent English politician who was the first recorded owner of the land. In the early 1900s, Fairfax became a hub for the lumber industry and was also home to several dairies and farms.
During the 1960s and 1970s, Fairfax became known as a center of counterculture and a hub of activism. The town was home to several famous musicians, including Jerry Garcia of the Grateful Dead, and hosted numerous concerts and music festivals. Today, Fairfax retains much of its bohemian character and has a thriving arts community.
Landmarks
One of the most notable landmarks in Fairfax is the Fairfax Theater, a historic movie theater that has been in operation since the 1920s. The theater features a wide variety of films, including independent and foreign films, and hosts special events throughout the year.
Another landmark is the Fairfax Pavilion, a community center that hosts a variety of events, including concerts, festivals, and weddings. The Pavilion has a large dance floor, a stage, and a bar, making it a popular spot for live music and other performances.
The town also has several historic buildings, including the Fairfax Women's Club, which was established in 1920 and has served as a community center for nearly a century. The club hosts a variety of events and meetings and is available for rental for private events.
Community Events
Fairfax has a lively calendar of events throughout the year, including the Fairfax Festival, a two-day event that takes place in June and features live music, food vendors, and arts and crafts booths. The festival also includes a parade and a children's area with rides and games.
In the fall, Fairfax hosts the annual Fairfax Brewfest, which features local breweries and food vendors, live music, and games. The event is a fundraiser for the Fairfax Parks and Recreation Department and is a popular gathering for locals and visitors alike.
The town also hosts a weekly farmers' market, where visitors can find a variety of fresh produce, artisanal foods, and handmade crafts. The market takes place every Wednesday from May to October.
Natural Beauty
Fairfax is surrounded by natural beauty, including several parks and open spaces. The town is located near Mount Tamalpais State Park, a popular destination for hiking, mountain biking, and scenic drives. The park has several trails of varying difficulty, including the popular Dipsea Trail, which runs from Mill Valley to Stinson Beach.
In town, visitors can enjoy the Fairfax Open Space Preserve, a 100-acre park that features hiking trails, picnic areas, and a nature center. The preserve is home to a variety of wildlife, including deer, coyotes, and several species of birds.
The town is also located near several lakes and reservoirs, including Alpine Lake, which offers fishing, kayaking, and hiking opportunities.
The Richmond District is a neighborhood located in the northwest part of San Francisco, bordered by Golden Gate Park to the south, the Presidio to the north, the Pacific Ocean to the west, and Arguello Boulevard to the east. The neighborhood is known for its diverse population, vibrant local businesses, and unique cultural attractions.
The Richmond District was developed in the late 19th and early 20th centuries as San Francisco's population grew and new residential neighborhoods were needed. The area was originally called "the Outside Lands" and was considered remote and isolated from the rest of the city. However, with the construction of the Golden Gate Park and the opening of the Richmond District's first streetcar line in 1896, the neighborhood began to grow and develop.
Today, the Richmond District is a vibrant and diverse neighborhood that is home to a variety of cultures, languages, and traditions. The neighborhood's main commercial corridor is on Clement Street, where you can find a wide variety of shops, restaurants, and cafes, many of which reflect the area's Asian and Russian heritage.
One of the most popular attractions in the Richmond District is the historic Balboa Theater. Originally opened in 1926 as a movie theater, the Balboa has been renovated and restored several times over the years and now hosts a variety of live performances, film screenings, and other events.
Another popular destination in the neighborhood is Golden Gate Park, which offers a wide range of recreational activities and cultural attractions. The park features several museums, including the de Young Museum and the California Academy of Sciences, as well as the Japanese Tea Garden, the Botanical Garden, and several miles of hiking and biking trails.
The Richmond District is also home to several beautiful and historic residential neighborhoods, including the Presidio Terrace, which is known for its exclusive homes and beautiful landscaping. The district also features several historic landmarks, including the Sutro Baths, a former public swimming pool that was built in the late 19th century and is now a popular site for hiking and exploring.
One of the unique aspects of the Richmond District is its diverse population, which includes many immigrants and first-generation Americans. The neighborhood is home to a significant Asian population, particularly Chinese and Vietnamese residents, as well as a large number of Russian immigrants.
The Richmond District is also known for its strong community spirit and its many local events and festivals. The neighborhood hosts several annual events, including the Richmond District Spring Festival and the Clement Street Farmers Market. These events provide opportunities for residents and visitors alike to come together and celebrate the area's unique culture and heritage.
One of the challenges facing the Richmond District, like many urban neighborhoods, is the issue of affordability. Housing prices in the area have increased significantly in recent years, making it difficult for many long-time residents to afford to stay in the neighborhood. However, the Richmond District continues to be a popular destination for those seeking a vibrant and diverse community that offers a wide range of cultural and recreational opportunities.
In conclusion, the Richmond District is a unique and vibrant neighborhood that offers a rich cultural heritage, beautiful residential neighborhoods, and a strong community spirit. From the historic Balboa Theater to the many shops and restaurants on Clement Street, the Richmond District is a destination that should not be missed by visitors to San Francisco. Whether you are looking to explore the area's cultural attractions or simply enjoy a day in one of San Francisco's most beautiful parks, the Richmond District has something to offer for everyone.
Marin County is located in the North Bay region of the San Francisco Bay Area, California, United States. It is known for its stunning natural beauty, expansive parklands, and charming towns. With a population of over 260,000 people, it is the smallest county in the Bay Area, both in terms of land area and population. Despite its small size, Marin County is a popular destination for tourists and a highly desirable place to live.
Marin County boasts over 80 parks and preserves, offering visitors and residents an abundance of outdoor activities. The county is home to the world-famous Muir Woods National Monument, a 550-acre park known for its towering old-growth redwood trees. The Marin Headlands, part of the Golden Gate National Recreation Area, offer stunning views of the Golden Gate Bridge, San Francisco Bay, and the Pacific Ocean. The Point Reyes National Seashore, located on the western edge of the county, is a vast wilderness area with rugged coastline, secluded beaches, and diverse wildlife.
Marin County's towns and cities also offer a range of cultural and recreational opportunities. The county seat, San Rafael, is home to the Marin Civic Center, a striking architectural masterpiece designed by Frank Lloyd Wright. The center is both a governmental hub and cultural center, with a public library, farmers market, and a variety of events throughout the year.
The town of Mill Valley, located at the base of Mount Tamalpais, is known for its charming downtown area, with numerous boutique shops, cafes, and restaurants. It is also home to the Mill Valley Film Festival, an annual event that attracts filmmakers and movie lovers from around the world.
Another popular destination in Marin County is the town of Sausalito, located on the bay just north of the Golden Gate Bridge. Sausalito is known for its picturesque waterfront, with views of San Francisco and Angel Island. The town's Main Street is lined with art galleries, boutique shops, and restaurants, making it a popular destination for tourists and locals alike.
Fairfax, a small town nestled in the hills of central Marin County, is known for its vibrant music scene, with numerous live music venues and annual music festivals. The town is also home to a variety of outdoor recreation opportunities, including hiking, mountain biking, and camping in nearby Mount Tamalpais State Park.
The city of Novato, located in the northern part of the county, is home to the Buck Institute for Research on Aging, a world-renowned research institution dedicated to studying the biology of aging and age-related diseases. Novato also boasts several golf courses, including the StoneTree Golf Club, which has been recognized as one of the best golf courses in California.
Marin County is also home to a number of excellent schools, including the Tamalpais Union High School District, which serves several of the county's high schools, and the Marin County Office of Education, which oversees the county's public schools. The county's public schools consistently rank among the best in the state, with high graduation rates and strong academic programs.
In addition to its natural beauty and cultural attractions, Marin County is also known for its commitment to sustainability and environmental stewardship. The county has implemented a number of initiatives to reduce its carbon footprint, including promoting public transportation, encouraging the use of renewable energy, and supporting local agriculture.
Overall, Marin County is a unique and beautiful destination that offers a range of experiences for visitors and residents alike. Whether you're looking for outdoor adventure, cultural enrichment, or a peaceful retreat, Marin County has something to offer.
The Marin real estate market shifted into new territory in Q1, shedding the weight of the drastic rate-hike market and re-balancing itself into a more normalized market comparative to the rest of the country.
Typical markets see homes sitting for 21-30 days before selling, with the best turnkey properties being the ones attracting the most attention and selling above asking. Although Marin has seldom operated in parallel with 'normal', it seems we're now getting a taste of it.
Properties priced right & presented well are still moving quickly, but anything less-than turnkey, especially if it's priced inline with a 3% rate market rather than today's rates, DOM will accumulate. With higher rates we are seeing monthly payment affordability issues & pricing needs to reflect this.
Condo Market
The condominium market was mostly non-existent in Q1. 2 total sales averaging below $1M is the lowest activity we've seen in this market segment in a while.
Buyers looking for entry-level condominiums are typically impacted most when rates double, leaving most of the lower-valued condominium market in Belvedere-Tiburon unaffordable.
Condos across the board have seen a decline in demand, too. 6.5% rates coupled with mostly high monthly HOA payments rendering the monthly cost of ownership in the 5-figure range for most-all condominiums listed.
At the time of this report, there are 3x condos in the contract above 1.3M, which will balance out the YTD sales data once closed.
Median Market
Median home sales in Tiburon were as bleak as we've seen in recent memory. 4x sales were recorded at an average of $2.9M, well below the 2022 $4.1M average sale.
Similar to above, at the time of this report there are 6 houses in contract, 4x of which will close above ~$3.5M, which will result in an average closer to 3.4M over 8+ sales, still well below 2022. This trend will be seen across the board with affordability issues massively affecting the trade-up market, which is the majority of the buyer pool in the $3-4M range for single-family homes in Tiburon.
Luxury Market
Only one property sold above $4M in Tiburon this quarter, and it sold 200k below asking after sitting on the market for over a month is indicative of what we're seeing in luxury markets around the Bay Area.
Affordability above $4M is assumed to be more cash-buyer dominant, which is true, but savvy buyers always leverage their assets with borrowed capital, and the cost of that capital has jumped, limiting the demand for expensive homes.
Belvedere-Tiburon is a top-tier luxury market around the Bay, on par with Atherton & Palo Alto, which have shown pricing resilience throughout this higher-rate market. But at a point, buyers just don't want to buy, and that's what we saw in Q1.
The general theme of macro-economic activity is more-of-the-same. We're seeing a steady diet of stress events like Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and the sell off of others, First Republic flailed for a moment which caused the entire real estate market to hold it's breath (FR is San Francisco's leading residential mortgage lender), and tech companies are laying off employees and axing non-revenue generating business activity, all typical during periods of tightening.
Also, the fed raises rates again at the turn of Q2 by 25bp and plans of doing this a few more times. However, and this is a BIG however, California is a sunshine state. People don't go to open houses in the rain (we're ridiculous, yes). With the sun back out, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a flurry of activity.
Learn more about Tiburon
If you have any questions, text me.
The Marin real estate market shifted into new territory in Q1, shedding the weight of the drastic rate-hike market and re-balancing itself into a more normalized market comparative to the rest of the country.
Typical markets see homes sitting for 21-30 days before selling, with the best turnkey properties being the ones attracting the most attention and selling above asking. Although Marin has seldom operated in parallel with 'normal', it seems we're now getting a taste of it.
Properties priced right & presented well are still moving quickly, but anything less-than turnkey, especially if it's priced inline with a 3% rate market rather than today's rates, DOM will accumulate. With higher rates we are seeing monthly payment affordability issues & pricing needs to reflect this.
Condo Market
Condominium sales in Sausalito, while down in volume, actually held steady on a price-per-foot basis in Q1 of 2023 compared to all of 2022; Demand remains high.
$Sqft is dramatically more relevant in the condominium markets than single-family homes and can be generally used to assess the desirability of the condo market when comparing periods.
$886/foot in Q1 '23 over 6 sales vs. $866 in all of 2022 over 50 sales is a compelling statistic. Yes, volume is down, but there is still a market for peak pricing.
We've seen affordability be massively affected in recent months, and buyers in the condominium market are typically most affected by increased rates. The Sausalito condo market maintaining desirability shows the strength of demand.
Median Market
Single-family home sales in Sausalito remained consistent with what we saw in 2022 with a median price of $2,640,000.
The market steadily increased in value over 2021 and 2022, as all surrounding markets did during that period, but has finally started to level out. The median price jumped to $2.7M in roughly Q2 of 2022 but has remained mostly steady since.
Buyers are much more hesitant to pull the trigger and buy homes, however, which aligns with the theme of affordability issues and sellers having 'pre 6% rate market' values. Days on market jumped from 24 to 67 in Q1, highlighting that sellers have to be more realistic with pricing expectations or face the likelihood of sitting on the market for months.
Luxury Market
The luxury housing market in Sausalito slowed in Q1 with only 2 home sales, but prices remained steady.
Of the two sales, both averaged less than three weeks on market and sold above the asking price. With only 11 luxury property sales in 2022, it's hard to compare and contrast too much as every home in Sausalito is notably different in a variety of ways.
What the data does hint at, however, is there is always a buyer for a turnkey, beautiful property above the water. Luxury pockets like Sausalito will retain demand, and value, much better than those with more like-kind properties.
The general theme of macro-economic activity is more-of-the-same. We're seeing a steady diet of stress events like Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and the sell off of others, First Republic flailed for a moment which caused the entire real estate market to hold it's breath (FR is San Francisco's leading residential mortgage lender), and tech companies are laying off employees and axing non-revenue generating business activity, all typical during periods of tightening.
Also, the fed raises rates again at the turn of Q2 by 25bp and plans of doing this a few more times. However, and this is a BIG however, California is a sunshine state. People don't go to open houses in the rain (we're ridiculous, yes). With the sun back out, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a flurry of activity.
Learn more about Sausalito
If you have any questions, text me.
The Marin real estate market shifted into new territory in Q1, shedding the weight of the drastic rate-hike market and re-balancing itself into a more normalized market comparative to the rest of the country.
Typical markets see homes sitting for 21-30 days before selling, with the best turnkey properties being the ones attracting the most attention and selling above asking. Although Marin has seldom operated in parallel with 'normal', it seems we're now getting a taste of it.
Properties priced right & presented well are still moving quickly, but anything less-than turnkey, especially if it's priced inline with a 3% rate market rather than today's rates, DOM will accumulate. With higher rates we are seeing monthly payment affordability issues & pricing needs to reflect this.
Condo Market
The condominium market in Larkspur was non-existent in Q1; 0 sales.
Typically we only see a small handful of condominium sales in Larkspur, but rarely does an entire quarter pass without a sale.
Affordability in the condominium market has swung drastically since last Summer. Buyers are looking at monthly payments somewhere in the ballpark of double what they used to be last year. Sellers haven't been willing to drop prices to accommodate for this carrying cost, so the market has stalled.
Sellers will need to bite the bullet and accept that their condo is worth less in this market than they'd like. Luckily, if they bought before 2020, there's a ton of equity to pull out of the sale.
Median Market
The median housing market in Larkspur saw only 1 property sale in Q1 of '23.
The average price for a single-family home raced to $2.8M in 2022. I remember when I started tracking Larkspur at a $2.15M avg. in the Summer of 2020 and thought this town had a unique vibe that was undervalued. Fast-forward a few years and values are up 650k.
The single sale closed for $2.585M in just 6 days, highlighting that desirability for turnkey single-family homes is still sky-high in Larkspur.
Luxury Market
Only one luxury property traded hands in Q1 '23; selling for $3,865,000 in 7 days.
Yes; they're weren't that many homes listed. Yes, the luxury market varies quite a bit between property type and size. The fact is there are significantly fewer buyers for $3m+ properties Bay Area-wide, and those buyers tend to concentrate closely on traditional luxury markets when the economy shifts.
Buyers at this price point are assumed to be more cash dominant, which is true, but savvy buyers always leverage their assets with borrowed capital, and the cost of that capital has jumped, limiting the demand for expensive homes.
The general theme of macro-economic activity is more-of-the-same. We're seeing a steady diet of stress events like Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and the sell off of others, First Republic flailed for a moment which caused the entire real estate market to hold it's breath (FR is San Francisco's leading residential mortgage lender), and tech companies are laying off employees and axing non-revenue generating business activity, all typical during periods of tightening.
Also, the fed raises rates again at the turn of Q2 by 25bp and plans of doing this a few more times. However, and this is a BIG however, California is a sunshine state. People don't go to open houses in the rain (we're ridiculous, yes). With the sun back out, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a flurry of activity.
Learn more about Larkspur
If you have any questions, text me.
The Marin real estate market shifted into new territory in Q1, shedding the weight of the drastic rate-hike market and re-balancing itself into a more normalized market comparative to the rest of the country.
Typical markets see homes sitting for 21-30 days before selling, with the best turnkey properties being the ones attracting the most attention and selling above asking. Although Marin has seldom operated in parallel with 'normal', it seems we're now getting a taste of it.
Properties priced right & presented well are still moving quickly, but anything less-than turnkey, especially if it's priced inline with a 3% rate market rather than today's rates, DOM will accumulate. With higher rates we are seeing monthly payment affordability issues & pricing needs to reflect this.
Condo Market
The average price of a condominium in Mill Valley increased by $87,000 in Q1, starkly different from the performance of all surrounding condo markets.
Ironically, the price per foot decreased by over $200/foot, indicating the size of the condominiums sold over the 5x sales to record in Q1 were larger than average.
$sqft is much more relevant in the condominium markets than for single-family homes and can be generally used to assess the desirability of the condo market when comparing periods.
We've seen affordability be massively affected in recent months, and buyers in the condominium market are typically most affected by increased rates.
Median Market
The average price for a property in Mill Valley's single-family market dropped by $450,000 in Q1 '23, took almost twice as long to sell, and less than half of a typical sales volume sold.
The median home market took a nose dive, but fortunately (or unfortunately) this wasn't too different from the surrounding neighborhoods. Mill Valley & San Rafael have the highest volume of sales in Marin in any given quarter, and both saw a massive decline in overall sales, highlighting the affordability issues sweeping the market.
Sales in Mill Valley were as bleak as we've seen them in recent memory, recording only 18 total sales in Q1. Traditionally we see 45-60 sales per quarter in MV. Entry-level and median buyers are the first affected by rising rates.
Luxury Market
Only 2 properties sold above $4.5M in Mill Valley this quarter. Sale prices remained steady in the luxury market, but the drop in volume is indicative of what we're seeing in the rest of the market.
Affordability above $4M is assumed to be more cash-buyer dominant, which is true, but savvy buyers always leverage their assets with borrowed capital, and the cost of that capital has jumped, decreasing the demand for expensive homes.
Mill Valley is a top-tier luxury market around the Bay, on par with Tiburon, Atherton & Palo Alto, which have shown pricing resilience throughout this higher-rate market. But at a point, buyers just don't want to buy, and that's what we saw in Q1.
The general theme of macro-economic activity is more-of-the-same. We're seeing a steady diet of stress events like Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and the sell off of others, First Republic flailed for a moment which caused the entire real estate market to hold it's breath (FR is San Francisco's leading residential mortgage lender), and tech companies are laying off employees and axing non-revenue generating business activity, all typical during periods of tightening.
Also, the fed raises rates again at the turn of Q2 by 25bp and plans of doing this a few more times. However, and this is a BIG however, California is a sunshine state. People don't go to open houses in the rain (we're ridiculous, yes). With the sun back out, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a flurry of activity.
Learn more about Mill Valley
If you have any questions, text me.
The San Francisco real estate market experienced a shift towards normalization in Q1, moving away from what we typically see in SF; multiple offers, properties selling way over asking price. This has resulted in homes sitting on the market for longer, and some not selling at all.
Properties that are well-presented and priced correctly are still in high demand and will move quickly, but anything less-than turnkey and priced according to the old 3% rate market rather than the current rate environment will sit on the market significantly longer. There is an affordability issue in this higher rate market, especially for lower-median priced homes, as buyers in these price points are heavily rate conscious. Pricing strategy is more important than ever.
Condo Market
Condo sales in Pacific Heights rebounded well in Q1 of 2023; Demand remains high.
The average price for a condo increased in Q1 to the north of $1.85M, compared to an average of $1.79M in 2022.
While the price per foot and days on market fluctuated slightly, 25 sales above last year's average show there is still a market for desirable condominiums in Pac Heights.
We've seen affordability be massively affected in recent months, and buyers in the condominium market are typically most affected by increased rates. The Pacific Heights condo market maintaining value is a good sign.
Median Market
The median housing market in Pacific Heights saw only 1 property sale in Q1 of '23.
The average price for a single-family home raced all the way to ~ $9M in '21/'22. I remember when I started tracking Pacific Heights at a ~$4.5M avg. in the Summer of 2018 and thought this neighborhood was undervalued. Fast-forward a few years and we've seen values double, then half.
The single sale closed for $4,200,000M after 31 days on market, highlighting a significant pullback in market activity. However, there are still plenty of buyers in the market for turnkey Pacific Heights homes.
Luxury Market
Similar to most luxury markets around the state, only 1 luxury property traded hands in Pacific Heights for $5,950,000, barely meeting the criteria we use to qualify above a median home.
The luxury property market is the first to be affected when the market shifts, as many buyers are financially savvy and consider primary residences as a liability on their balance sheet, and leverage banks to keep as much capital at play as possible. When securing a luxury real estate asset has a dramatically increased monthly carrying cost.
The general theme of macro-economic activity is more-of-the-same. We're seeing a steady diet of stress events like Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and the sell off of others, First Republic flailed for a moment which caused the entire real estate market to hold it's breath (FR is San Francisco's leading residential mortgage lender), and tech companies are laying off employees and axing non-revenue generating business activity, all typical during periods of tightening. Also, the fed raises rates again at the turn of Q2 by 25bp and plans of doing this a few more times.
However, and this is a BIG however, California is a sunshine state. People don't go to open houses in the rain (we're ridiculous, yes). With the sun back out, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a flurry of activity.
Learn more about Pacific Heights
If you have any questions, text me.
The San Francisco real estate market experienced a shift towards normalization in Q1, moving away from what we typically see in SF; multiple offers, properties selling way over asking price. This has resulted in homes sitting on the market for longer, and some not selling at all.
Properties that are well-presented and priced correctly are still in high demand and will move quickly, but anything less-than turnkey and priced according to the old 3% rate market rather than the current rate environment will sit on the market significantly longer. There is an affordability issue in this higher rate market, especially for lower-median priced homes, as buyers in these price points are heavily rate conscious. Pricing strategy is more important than ever.
Condo Market
Condominium sales in the Northside of San Francisco have been reeling since rates increased. Total sales are down, price per foot is down, and it's taking double the amount of time to sell.
$sqft is dramatically more relevant in the condominium markets than single-family homes and can be generally used to assess the desirability of the condo market when comparing periods.
$1170/foot in Q1 '23 over 23 sales vs. $1324 in all of 2022 over 194 sales is a compelling statistic. Yes, the market is down, but there is still a market of turnkey, desirable condos.
We've seen affordability be massively affected in recent months, and buyers in the condominium market are typically most affected by increased rates.
Median Market
The median housing market on the Northside of San Francisco saw only 1 property sale in Q1 of '23.
The single sale did close > $1M above market average for $5,550,000M, however. The caveat, it sat on the market for 189 days, highlighting a significant pull back in market activity, and the need to price strategically and present a turnkey property.
North Beach, Russian Hill, The Marina, Cow Hollow do typically see less single family home sales that surrounding areas, but 1 sale over the entire quarter is much less than expected.
Luxury Market
The luxury property market in the Northside of San Francisco saw one massive sale in Q1, a testament to the fact there is always a buyer for beautiful, luxurious homes in San Francisco. This $2,200/foot sale moved in just over a month and sold for nearly $2.2M above the 2022 luxury property average.
Luxury markets operate differently to the median and condo markets as buyers are often sophisticated buyers with differing motivations; some are seeking trophy properties in cash during the downturn, others are consciously monitoring the monthly carrying costs of leveraging the bank for real estate assets and deciding it isn't worth the cost.
Luckily, this pocket of the city is home to some of the most beautiful homes in the entire state, and will always generate buyer interest.
The general theme of macro-economic activity is more-of-the-same. We're seeing a steady diet of stress events like Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and the sell off of others, First Republic flailed for a moment which caused the entire real estate market to hold it's breath (FR is San Francisco's leading residential mortgage lender), and tech companies are laying off employees and axing non-revenue generating business activity, all typical during periods of tightening. Also, the fed raises rates again at the turn of Q2 by 25bp and plans of doing this a few more times.
However, and this is a BIG however, California is a sunshine state. People don't go to open houses in the rain (we're ridiculous, yes). With the sun back out, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a flurry of activity.
Learn more about Northside San Francisco
If you have any questions, text me.
The San Francisco real estate market experienced a shift towards normalization in Q1, moving away from what we typically see in SF; multiple offers, properties selling way over asking price. This has resulted in homes sitting on the market for longer, and some not selling at all.
Properties that are well-presented and priced correctly are still in high demand and will move quickly, but anything less-than turnkey and priced according to the old 3% rate market rather than the current rate environment will sit on the market significantly longer. There is an affordability issue in this higher rate market, especially for lower-median priced homes, as buyers in these price points are heavily rate conscious. Pricing strategy is more important than ever.
Condo Market
Condominium sales in the Richmond District were down in volume, but held steady in price in Q1 of 2023 compared to all of 2022; Demand remains high.
$sqft is dramatically more relevant in the condominium markets than single-family homes and can be generally used to assess the desirability of the condo market when comparing periods.
$876/foot in Q1 '23 over 8 sales vs. $1026 in all of 2022 over 78 sales is a compelling statistic. Yes, the market is down, but there is still a market of turnkey, desirable condos.
We've seen affordability be massively affected in recent months, and buyers in the condominium market are typically most affected by increased rates. The Richmond District condo market maintaining its average price point is a good sign.
Median Market
Single-family home sales in The Richmond District remained consistent with what we saw in 2022 with a median price of $2,044,000.
The SF market drastically increased in value over 2021 and the first half of 2022, as all surrounding markets did during that period, but has finally started to level out.
Buyers are much more hesitant to pull the trigger and buy homes now than they were before, which aligns with the trend of affordability issues and sellers having 'pre-6% rate market' value expectations.
Days on market jumped from 21 to 34 in Q1, highlighting that sellers have to be more realistic with pricing expectations or face the likelihood of sitting on the market for a long.
Luxury Market
The luxury housing market in the Richmond District saw only 1 property sale in Q1 of '23.
The average price for a single-family home raced up to the high $3M in mid '22 but has steadily been coming back to earth in this 6% rate market.
The single sale closed for $3,200,000M after only 6 days on market, highlighting that there are still plenty of buyers in the market for turnkey Richmond District homes.
The general theme of macro-economic activity is more-of-the-same. We're seeing a steady diet of stress events like Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and the sell off of others, First Republic flailed for a moment which caused the entire real estate market to hold it's breath (FR is San Francisco's leading residential mortgage lender), and tech companies are laying off employees and axing non-revenue generating business activity, all typical during periods of tightening. Also, the fed raises rates again at the turn of Q2 by 25bp and plans of doing this a few more times.
However, and this is a BIG however, California is a sunshine state. People don't go to open houses in the rain (we're ridiculous, yes). With the sun back out, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a flurry of activity.
Learn more about Richmond District
If you have any questions, text me.
The Marin real estate market shifted into new territory in Q1, shedding the weight of the drastic rate-hike market and re-balancing itself into a more normalized market comparative to the rest of the country.
Typical markets see homes sitting for 21-30 days before selling, with the best turnkey properties being the ones attracting the most attention and selling above asking. Although Marin has seldom operated in parallel with 'normal', it seems we're now getting a taste of it.
Properties priced right & presented well are still moving quickly, but anything less-than turnkey, especially if it's priced inline with a 3% rate market rather than today's rates, DOM will accumulate. With higher rates we are seeing monthly payment affordability issues & pricing needs to reflect this.
Median Market
The median single-family home market in Fairfax was the epitome of slow; 4 sales in Q1 vs an average of ~ 20 sales per quarter in 2022, aka down 80% in volume.
Unfortunately, Fairfax is a low volume & low demand market compared to its neighbors, given the additional 10 - 15 minutes from 101 to access San Francisco and destinations north, the buyer pool has shown to favor more accessibility and larger markets like San Rafael. Higher volume markets see values swing faster than low, catering to more buyers getting good deals.
The average price for a home in Fairfax has started to 400k dive, but the time it's taking to sell has sped up quickly for turnkey, well-priced homes.
Luxury Market
There were no luxury property sales in Fairfax in Q1. Typically this market segment only sees 1 or 2 sales per quarter, making this less of an anomaly than it seems.
The general theme of macro-economic activity is more-of-the-same. We're seeing a steady diet of stress events like Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and the sell off of others, First Republic flailed for a moment which caused the entire real estate market to hold it's breath (FR is San Francisco's leading residential mortgage lender), and tech companies are laying off employees and axing non-revenue generating business activity, all typical during periods of tightening.
Also, the fed raises rates again at the turn of Q2 by 25bp and plans of doing this a few more times. However, and this is a BIG however, California is a sunshine state. People don't go to open houses in the rain (we're ridiculous, yes). With the sun back out, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a flurry of activity.
Learn more about Fairfax
If you have any questions, text me.
The Marin real estate market shifted into new territory in Q1, shedding the weight of the drastic rate-hike market and re-balancing itself into a more normalized market comparative to the rest of the country.
Typical markets see homes sitting for 21-30 days before selling, with the best turnkey properties being the ones attracting the most attention and selling above asking. Although Marin has seldom operated in parallel with 'normal', it seems we're now getting a taste of it.
Properties priced right & presented well are still moving quickly, but anything less-than turnkey, especially if it's priced inline with a 3% rate market rather than today's rates, DOM will accumulate. With higher rates we are seeing monthly payment affordability issues & pricing needs to reflect this.
Median Market
Single-family homes sold in San Anselmo saw a significant drop in value compared to 2022 as a whole; with a $1.41M avg. compared to a $2.05M average. 21 sales were recorded; a significant enough batch of data to theorize that the market has dramatically softened.
This is no surprise, and consistent across most other local markets, too. It's significantly more expensive to finance a home in Q2 of '23 than it has been in over a decade, which is leading buyers to have to reconsider their buying power.
Sellers hanging on to pre-6%-interest-rate pricing are being forced to adjust to a changing climate, too as less-than-turnkey, or priced incorrectly, are sitting on the market longer. Although DOM shows the same, this statistic only applies to homes sold. Overpriced homes haven't been selling.
Luxury Market
Luxury properties in San Anselmo are selling, on average for $892,000 less than they were in 2022. Bold headline, but true. Only 2 luxury price point homes sold in Q2, compared to an average of 6x per quarter in 2022, highlighting the significant drop in demand for $3M+ properties in the area.
One shining light in the data is the $/sqft similarities between the 2x luxury sales recorded in Q1 and all 22 from the previous year. The desirability of San Anselmo has never been questioned, something that $/sqft does a good job of highlighting.
With cash buyers seemingly sitting on their chips, and borrowers seeing massively increased monthly rates for any bank-borrowed capital, the luxury sector of the market doesn't have too many buyers floating around.
The general theme of macro-economic activity is more-of-the-same. We're seeing a steady diet of stress events like Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and the sell off of others, First Republic flailed for a moment which caused the entire real estate market to hold it's breath (FR is San Francisco's leading residential mortgage lender), and tech companies are laying off employees and axing non-revenue generating business activity, all typical during periods of tightening.
Also, the fed raises rates again at the turn of Q2 by 25bp and plans of doing this a few more times. However, and this is a BIG however, California is a sunshine state. People don't go to open houses in the rain (we're ridiculous, yes). With the sun back out, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a flurry of activity.
Learn more about San Anselmo
If you have any questions, text me.
The Marin real estate market shifted into new territory in Q1, shedding the weight of the drastic rate-hike market and re-balancing itself into a more normalized market comparative to the rest of the country.
Typical markets see homes sitting for 21-30 days before selling, with the best turnkey properties being the ones attracting the most attention and selling above asking. Although Marin has seldom operated in parallel with 'normal', it seems we're now getting a taste of it.
Properties priced right & presented well are still moving quickly, but anything less-than turnkey, especially if it's priced inline with a 3% rate market rather than today's rates, DOM will accumulate. With higher rates we are seeing monthly payment affordability issues & pricing needs to reflect this.
Median Market
The average price for a property in Kentfield's single-family market dropped by ~ $800,000 in Q1 '23 and took three times as long to sell. With only 3 sales and a handful of listings available all quarter, it's hard to tie the value drop to desirability,
Buyers are much more hesitant to pull the trigger and buy homes now than they were before, which aligns with the trend of affordability issues coupled with sellers having 'pre-6% rate market' value expectations.
Luxury Market
No luxury properties sold in Kentfield in Q1 23.
Yes; they're weren't many homes listed.
Yes, the luxury market varies quite a bit between property type and size.
The fact is there are significantly fewer buyers for $3m+ properties Bay Area-wide, and those buyers tend to concentrate closely on traditional luxury pockets when the market shifts. Buyers at this price point are assumed to be more cash dominant, which is true, but savvy buyers leverage their assets with borrowed capital, and the cost of that capital has jumped, limiting the demand for expensive homes.
The general theme of macro-economic activity is more-of-the-same. We're seeing a steady diet of stress events like Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and the sell off of others, First Republic flailed for a moment which caused the entire real estate market to hold it's breath (FR is San Francisco's leading residential mortgage lender), and tech companies are laying off employees and axing non-revenue generating business activity, all typical during periods of tightening.
Also, the fed raises rates again at the turn of Q2 by 25bp and plans of doing this a few more times. However, and this is a BIG however, California is a sunshine state. People don't go to open houses in the rain (we're ridiculous, yes). With the sun back out, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a flurry of activity.
Learn more about Kentfield
If you have any questions, text me.
When it comes to increasing the value of a property, understanding the difference between an appraisal and an assessment is key. Square footage discrepancies between the two can lead to inaccurate valuations and missed opportunities for increasing a property's value.
Lets start with the basics..
What is an Appraisal in California?
In California, an appraisal is an evaluation of a property's market value conducted by a licensed appraiser. The appraiser considers several factors, such as the property's location, size, condition, and unique features to determine its current value. As a developer, you can use this information to identify opportunities to increase the value of the property through renovations, upgrades, or additions.
What is an Assessment?
In California, an assessment is a determination of a property's value made by the county assessor for the purpose of calculating property taxes. Assessments take into account factors such as the location, size, and condition of the property. It's important to note that assessments are not the same as appraisals and are not conducted to determine the market value of a property.
Why Square Footage Discrepancies Can Occur:
One area where discrepancies can occur between an appraisal and an assessment in California is the measurement of a property's square footage. Appraisers and assessors may use different methods of measurement, resulting in different square footage measurements. This can lead to confusion and discrepancies in the property's valuation, which can impact a developer's ability to identify and pursue opportunities for increasing the property's value.
How to Avoid Square Footage Discrepancies:
To avoid square footage discrepancies between an appraisal and an assessment, it's essential to ensure that both measurements are taken in the same way-. This means using the same measuring standard and taking into account the same areas of the property. Additionally, it's important to double-check both the appraisal and assessment to ensure that the square footage measurements are accurate.
Un-permitted Additions Can Cause Square Footage Discrepancies:
One reason for a square footage discrepancy in an appraisal is un-permitted additions to the property. The county assessor may not be aware of these additions due to outdated records or a seller's failure to obtain permits. While this may keep property taxes low for the seller, it could affect the property's value when selling it.
If a building permit wasn't obtained for an addition, the assessor wouldn't consider it in the assessment, resulting in a smaller recorded size. This may also affect the appraisal's square footage and could raise concerns about the quality of undocumented work.
So How Do You Value Additional & Non-Permitted Square Footage?
The challenge; the square footage obviously still exists, is likely usable and has an inherent value associated with it. Valuing that square footage is a slippery slope when it comes to list price, because including it in the asking price will more than likely show a higher-than-market price per square foot to the untrained eye, and might deter buyers before they even attend the open house.
Marketing wise; I've always found it best to market the additional space as 'Bonus Space', and have buyers decide the value in their offer price. I've had success staging many additional spaces as Man-Caves, She-Shed's and built-out garage spaces.
The most notable; 4620 Virginia Ave in Oakland. We spent less than $5k to drywall and frame a bonus space underneath the property, then staged it as an additional suite/ADU with it's own bathroom. Because the space was so obviously valuable to an end-user, buyer's reflected their idea of value in their offers, leading to a highly competitive offer situation and a neighborhood record $/foot sale.
The market ultimately dictates the market value of a property, not sellers, the listing agent, or the list price.
If you have any questions, text me.
Understanding the basics of Tenancy in Common ownership in San Francisco
Firstly, yes, they are absolutely safe, anda fantastic alternative to a condominium for multiple reasons. But, it is a different form of property ownership and it's important to know the basics.
Tenancy in Common is a form of property ownership that is becoming increasingly popular, particularly among families and investors. If you're considering investing in a Tenancy in Common property, it's important to understand the basics of this ownership structure and how it differs from other types of property ownership.
What is a Tenancy in Common?
A Tenancy in Common is a type of property ownership in which two or more individuals own a share of the same property. Each owner has the right to occupy the property and use it for their own purposes, and each owner's share of the property can be bought, sold, or transferred without the consent of the other owners.
In a Tenancy in Common, each owner holds a separate and distinct share of the property. This means that each owner can hold a different percentage of ownership in the property, and each owner can pass their share of the property to their heirs or beneficiaries.
How does a Tenancy in Common differ from other types of property ownership?
A Tenancy in Common differs from other types of property ownership, such as Joint Tenancy and Community Property, in several key ways. In a Joint Tenancy, for example, each owner has an equal share of the property and the right of survivorship, meaning that when one owner dies, their share of the property passes to the other owner(s) automatically.
In a Community Property state, each spouse owns an equal share of all property acquired during the marriage, regardless of who earned the money to purchase the property. Upon the death of one spouse, the surviving spouse automatically inherits the deceased spouse's share of the community property.
In contrast, a Tenancy in Common allows each owner to hold a different percentage of ownership in the property, and each owner can pass their share of the property to their heirs or beneficiaries upon their death.
Benefits and Drawbacks of Tenancy in Common
There are several benefits and drawbacks to owning property as a Tenancy in Common. One of the main benefits is that it allows multiple individuals to own a share of the same property without requiring them to have equal ownership. This can be useful for family members or business partners who want to invest in a property together but don't want to split the ownership evenly.
However, Tenancy in Common ownership can also create some challenges, such as disagreements over how the property should be managed and maintained, or difficulties in selling the property if one owner wants to cash out while the others want to hold onto the property.
Tenancy in Common is a flexible and versatile form of property ownership that can be useful in a variety of situations. However, it's important to understand the basics of this ownership structure before investing in a Tenancy in Common property. If you're considering Tenancy in Common ownership, be sure to consult with a real estate attorney or other qualified professional to determine if it's the right choice for you.
If you have any questions, text me.
When a homeowner dies, their assets, including real estate, are passed down to their heirs. If the deceased person had a will, the probate court will determine the validity of the document and appoint an executor to distribute the assets according to the will's instructions. However, if there is no will or the will is deemed invalid, the court will appoint an administrator to distribute the assets according to state law. In either case, the real estate may need to be sold to pay off any outstanding debts or taxes and distribute the remaining funds to the heirs.
Properties sold in probate court can be great deals because the court's goal is to move the asset quickly at fair market value, not maximize the return. But probate sales take longer than traditional sales in the Bay Area, typically 45 day escrows.
In such situations, the court may order a probate sale, which is a legal process for selling the property. A probate sale is different from a traditional real estate sale in several ways, and it's important to understand how it works.
The Role of the Executor or Administrator
The executor or administrator appointed by the court will be responsible for managing the probate sale. They will work with a real estate agent to list the property for sale and set a price based on the property's appraised value. The executor or administrator may also be required to obtain court approval before accepting an offer on the property.
Making an Offer
In a probate sale, a potential purchaser has the option to make an offer on the property at any point. Any offer submitted has to be accompanied by a 10 percent deposit check delivered to the court. Following this, the estate representative will evaluate the offer and either accept it or provide a counteroffer, similar to any other real estate sale. Once an offer has been received a First Overbid and a court date will be set where other interested buyers can attend and present their bid to the court.
The Role of the Court
In a probate sale, the court will oversee the sale process to ensure that it is fair and that the proceeds are distributed according to the law. The court will also set the minimum bid amount, which is usually based on the appraised value of the property. Interested buyers can then make offers above the minimum bid amount, and the highest bidder will be selected to purchase the property.
The Court Confirmation Process
Once a buyer is selected, the court will schedule a hearing to confirm the sale. The purpose of the hearing is to ensure that the sale price is fair and that the interests of all parties involved, including the heirs, are protected. The court may require the buyer to make a deposit before the hearing to demonstrate their commitment to the purchase.
If the court approves the sale, the buyer will be required to complete the purchase within a specified timeframe, usually 30 to 45 days. If the buyer fails to complete the purchase, they may forfeit their deposit, and the property will be sold to the next highest bidder.
Probate sales can be a complex and time-consuming process, but they are an important part of estate administration. It's essential to work with an experienced real estate agent and attorney who can guide you through the process and ensure that your interests are protected. With the right team in place, a court-confirmed probate sale can be a smooth and successful transaction that allows you to move forward with your life.
If you have any questions, text me.
When buying a property in California, the purchase contract often includes contingencies that protect buyers from unforeseen issues. These contingencies are conditions that must be met before the sale can be finalized. Here are the five contingencies that can be found in a California real estate purchase contract:
While contingencies can protect buyers from unforeseen issues, they can also make a non-contingent offer more attractive to a seller. A non-contingent offer means that the buyer is willing to purchase the property without any contingencies. This type of offer can be appealing to a seller because it guarantees a faster and smoother transaction. However, a non-contingent offer can be risky for the buyer, as they would be responsible for any issues that arise after the sale. It is important to weigh the benefits and drawbacks of a non-contingent offer before making an offer on a property.
Typically, the only appropriate time to remove all contingencies on an offer are:
1. You're satisfied with all the inspections, reports and documents provided in the listing package
2. The property and it's title are clean & turn-key
3. When other non-continent offers are expected
Advising clients to write offers without contingencies may seem counter-intuitive to the buyer's best interests, which in most cases it is, unless you're in a sellers market like San Francisco or the Bay Area. In any market where buyer's routinely compete for properties, the offers that rarely win are those with a litny of contingencies or clauses for buyers to 'pull out' if something doesn't work for them.
As a seller, you can understand why accepting one offer where a buyer has the ability to walk away at any point might be less appealing than the buyer 100% committed to purchasing the property. Even if the second offer is a slightly lower, it's hard to put a price on guarantee.
All in all, your agent needs to be savvy at their utilization of contingencies in order to protect a buyer from potentially expensive and litigious situations during & after escrow. All properties are different and come with their own swath of potential challenges.
If you have any questions, text me.
Seller financing is a way for home buyers to purchase a property without going through a traditional lender such as a bank or credit union. Instead, the seller of the property acts as the lender, and the buyer makes payments directly to them. This type of financing can be attractive for both parties, as it can provide more flexibility in terms of loan structure and can make it easier for buyers to secure financing. Seller financing has come back into vogue in '23 after rate increases have priced many buyers out of the market, forcing sellers to be flexible in navigating the process of getting top-dollar for a Bay Area home.
In this article, we will explore the concept of seller financing, its advantages and disadvantages, and how it can be used in real estate transactions.
What Is Seller Financing?
Seller financing, also known as owner financing, is a real estate financing option in which the seller of a property acts as the lender for the buyer. In other words, the seller extends a loan to the buyer to cover all or part of the purchase price, and the buyer makes payments to the seller over time, rather than getting a mortgage from a traditional lender.
According to Rocket Mortgage, seller financing is often used in situations where traditional financing is not available or is difficult to obtain. This might include situations where the buyer has a poor credit history or does not have a significant down payment, or where the property itself may not meet the lender's requirements. In these cases, the seller may be willing to offer financing as a way to help the buyer complete the transaction.
Seller financing can take many forms, but the most common is a promissory note, which is a legal document that outlines the terms of the loan. The note will typically specify the amount of the loan, the interest rate, the payment schedule, and any other terms or conditions of the loan. The note is then recorded with the county recorder's office, which makes it a public record.
Advantages of Seller Financing
Seller financing can offer several advantages for both buyers and sellers. For buyers, the most significant advantage is that it can make it easier to purchase a property, particularly if they have difficulty obtaining traditional financing. Seller financing may also offer more flexible loan terms than a traditional mortgage, such as a lower down payment, a longer repayment period, or a lower interest rate.
For sellers, the main advantage of seller financing is that it can make their property more attractive to potential buyers. By offering financing, sellers can broaden the pool of potential buyers, particularly in a slow market or in areas where there is a lot of competition. Seller financing can also offer tax advantages for sellers, as they may be able to spread out the income from the sale over several years.
Disadvantages of Seller Financing
While seller financing can be a useful tool for both buyers and sellers, it is not without its risks. For buyers, the main disadvantage is that the interest rate on a seller-financed loan may be higher than what they could obtain from a traditional lender. This is because the seller is taking on more risk by acting as the lender, so they may charge a higher interest rate to compensate.
For sellers, the main risk of seller financing is that the buyer may default on the loan. If the buyer stops making payments, the seller may need to go through a lengthy foreclosure process to recover the property, which can be costly and time-consuming. In addition, if the property is sold before the loan is fully repaid, the seller may need to take legal action to recover the outstanding balance.
Using Seller Financing in Real Estate Transactions
When considering using seller financing in a real estate transaction, it is crucial for both the buyer and seller to have a clear understanding of the terms of the loan, including the interest rate, repayment schedule, and any potential penalties for default or early repayment. Both parties should also conduct a thorough assessment of the property's value to ensure that the terms of the loan are fair and reasonable.
Seller financing can be a useful tool for buyers who are unable to obtain traditional financing or who wish to negotiate more flexible loan terms. For sellers, it can help attract potential buyers and provide a steady source of income over time. However, seller financing does come with risks, including the potential for default or foreclosure, and it is important to carefully consider these risks before entering into a seller-financed transaction.
While it can be a viable option for both buyers and sellers in certain situations, but it is important to weigh the benefits and risks carefully before making a decision. It is also wise to seek professional advice from a real estate attorney or financial advisor to ensure that the terms of the loan are fair and legal.
With proper planning and due diligence, seller financing can be a fantastic option if you cant find a conventional buyer for a property. If nothing more, I always find it valuable to pre-educate my clients selling homes to explore all options available to us in seeking that top-of-market price, including giving concessions to buyers willing to commit and pay a premium.
If you have any questions, text me.
If you're planning on selling your home, making renovations beforehand can be an effective way to increase its value and attract potential buyers. But with so many possible renovation options, it can be challenging to know where to start. To help out, I've compiled a list of my top 5 best ROI property renovations to consider before selling your home.
These renovations are based on a combination of expert advice and research on the renovations that provide the most significant return on investment. From kitchen upgrades to energy-efficient improvements, these renovations can help you get the most bang for your buck and sell your home faster.
From personal experience, the very best thing you can do when selling a property is address/remove as many "No's" from a potential buyer ahead of time. This will lead to the most amount of interested buyers, the most offers, and the highest possible price.
Overall, these top 5 best ROI property renovations before sale can make your home more attractive to potential buyers and increase its value. By focusing on these key areas, you can create a more modern, functional, and energy-efficient home that buyers will be eager to purchase.
If you have any questions, text me.
Investing in real estate can be a smart way to build wealth over the long-term. One strategy that has become increasingly popular in recent years is purchasing a property in your child's name with a low down payment. This approach can offer a range of benefits, from taxes to increased financial flexibility..
The FHA has loan program that allows parents to buy their children properties with 3.5% down so long as the child is an occupant in the property, which is perfect for parents investing in a property for their child to live in during college, or move out for the first time.
Requirements for Investing in a Property in Your Child's Name
In order to qualify for this type FHA loan, your child will be the legal owner of the property; they will be responsible for all taxes and fees associated with the property, but parents are allowed to cover all costs.
It is important to note that in most cases, FHA doesn't approve applicants co-borrowing if one of the borrowers won't be occupying the property. But blood relatives - such as children (or parents if any of us are lucky enough to be buying our parents houses) qualify for co-borrowers to come up with all of the down payment & carrying costs, even if they don't live there.
Another requirement is that the property must be a single-unit property, such as a house or condo. Multi-unit properties, such as apartment buildings, are not eligible for this type of loan.
One Of The Best Strategies Available
One of the best strategies I've come across for giving your child an immediate adulthood head start is to purchase the property they move into when they move out, or go to college, with a 3.5% down payment.
Yes, buy the college house they're going to trash. Put it in their name.. and see what they do with it.
For Example;
You could purchase a 3-4 bedroom house in Berkeley, California, for ~ $1,000,000 with a 3.5% down payment & a loan of ~ $965,000.
Once you've purchased the property, your son/daughter and their friends can become tenants for $1,500/room, which is a competitive local market rate in most of Berkeley. This rental income can be used to cover the monthly mortgage payments, which would be ~ $7,800 per month
'But thats a negative carry'.. sure.. for now.
Carrying costs associated with the property will also need to be factored into the investment for a period of 12-24 months until refinancing to a lower rate is doable. Assuming that interest rates are going down like the entire media world says they will, you can refinance at a lower rate and offset some/most of that gap.
The out-of-pocket expenses for this investment would be around $35,000 for the down payment, plus ~ $2,500 carry per month for 24 months for a total of $95,000 over the first two years of ownership assuming lower rates are 24 months out.
The best part; The numbers above are specifically for one of the most expensive real estate markets in the country. You can execute this strategy in any other college town (~ minus Stanford and a few others) with a much lower monthly payment & way less liability should the property sit vacant for a period of time.
Benefits of Investing in a Property in Your Child's Name
One of the key benefits of investing in a property in your child's name is that it can offer significant tax advantages. For example, if your child is in a lower tax bracket than you, they may be able to take advantage of deductions and tax credits that you may not be eligible for with a real estate asset in their name.
But financial flexibility has to be the best benefit here. If your kid needs money after college to get started in the real world, or any other lump sum life events, they can take out a home equity loan to access the equity built in the property during college while they were living in it.
Further Thoughts..
Investing in a property in your child's name can be a smart way to build wealth over the long-term. By purchasing a single-unit property with a low down payment as their first out-of-the-nest place to live, then renting it out to them & their friends can be a great way to generate rental income that can cover the most of the monthly mortgage payments.
Obviously, it's important to carefully consider the risks and benefits before making any investment decisions. After all.... college kids are college kids.
The real estate market is a complex and dynamic industry that requires specialized knowledge and expertise to succeed. For those who specialize in selling luxury real estate, there are unique challenges and opportunities that come with catering to high-end clients. Though I'm far from an expert, let's explore some secrets & tactics to selling luxury real estate & tips to succeed in this competitive market.
Understanding Luxury Real Estate
Before diving into the specifics of selling luxury real estate, it's important to have a clear understanding of what sets this market apart from others. Luxury real estate typically refers to high-end properties that are priced well above the median home value in a given area. These properties often come with unique features and amenities, such as stunning views, custom finishes, and high-end appliances.
Selling luxury real estate requires a different approach than selling other types of properties. The buying process is often more complex, with buyers taking their time to carefully consider their options and weighing factors such as location, amenities, and prestige. As such, agents must be prepared to work closely with clients over a longer period of time and provide exceptional service and attention to detail. Listings will sit on the market longer, too, as buyers take their time in analysis.
For high-end listings, sellers have to be patient. Properties take longer to sell, and the skill of a good luxury agent is creating a game plan for expanding awareness over time, ensuring every buyer in the price point interacts with the property; online, or ideally in person.
Building a Brand
One of the key factors in selling luxury real estate is building a strong brand and reputation in the industry. This starts with creating a recognizable brand identity that reflects your values and unique selling proposition. Your brand should convey a sense of professionalism, expertise, and trustworthiness, while also highlighting your ability to cater to high-end clients.
In addition to creating a strong brand identity, it's important to establish yourself as a thought leader in the industry. Content marketing has been an amazing tool for me. Sharing thoughts and analysis on what I'm seeing on the happen in the market is such a simple, routine task for me with clients, and turning it into content has been instrumental for my brand. I've always figured people want to hear expert opinion, and really don't have much of an attention span for anything else.
Anyone on a real estate website is on there to learn more about real estate in a digestible & simple way. I've really enjoyed analyzing all local markets here in Marin & San Francisco as they all move differently, and property owners & buyers alike need to know the specifics if they want to play.
Targeting the Right Clients
Another key factor in selling luxury real estate is targeting the right clients. Unlike other types of properties, luxury real estate is marketed to a narrow segment of the population that can afford high-end properties. As such, it's important to have a deep understanding of your target audience and tailor your marketing efforts accordingly. Knowing who your buyer is ahead of time is half the battle.
This may involve targeting individuals who are part of exclusive clubs or organizations, such as golf clubs or yacht clubs. It may also involve partnering with high-end brands and retailers, such as luxury car dealerships or high-end fashion boutiques, to reach potential buyers. By understanding the interests and lifestyles of your target audience, you can develop more effective marketing strategies that speak to their unique needs and desires.
Developing a Comprehensive Marketing Strategy
When it comes to marketing luxury real estate, top brokers in luxury markets leave no stone unturned. They employ a comprehensive marketing strategy that encompasses a wide range of tactics and channels to reach potential buyers and showcase their properties in the best possible light. In this section, we'll explore some of the key components of a successful luxury real estate marketing strategy and provide examples of what top brokers are doing to market homes.
Creating Compelling Property Listings
One of the most important components of any luxury real estate marketing strategy is creating compelling property listings that grab the attention of potential buyers. Exceptional photography and videography is essential in the modern world, showcasing unique features and amenities of each property, highlighting everything from breathtaking views to custom finishes and high-end appliances. You have to highlight the detail. Detail is luxury.
Leveraging Social Media
If you don't have a following on social media, it's exponentially harder to get the word out there about new listings. Social media is an increasingly important channel for luxury real estate marketing, with platforms like Instagram and Facebook providing a powerful way to reach potential buyers and showcase properties. The best of the best can specifically target a similar demographic to buyers that have recently bought other luxury homes in the area, and deliver compelling, awe-inspiring content to get those people excited enough to book an appointment for a private showing.
If you don't have a following, you better know exactly how to get listings in front of end-buyers.
Hosting Open Houses and Private Events
Open houses and private events are a staple of luxury real estate marketing, providing an opportunity for potential buyers to view a property in person and get a sense of its unique character and features. Exceptional brokers use open houses and private events to showcase their properties to potential buyers, with an emphasis on creating a memorable and engaging experience. These events include private dinners, cocktail parties, or art exhibitions, with an emphasis on creating an experience that reflects the lifestyle and character of the property.
Whatever the best feature of the house/property is, plan an event around that exact thing, then get as many qualified prospects to attend by whatever means necessary. Getting buyers in the door is the hardest part.
One of my favourite lessons I took from my time selling Four Seasons Private Residences was the meticulous detail we went to in preparation for our clients to arrive, and the execution of the showing/presentation.
We would calculate every aspect of the appointment from how the lobby looked when they arrived, how they were greeted, how they were escorted through the building to the sales suite, and even how we served beverages & bites during the sales presentation. By controlling every aspect of the environment, we could tweak aspects of our pitch with precision and test results.
In the luxury market, I've always found it best to have a step by step strategy for every showing; knowing exactly the experience we are trying to create, the emotions we're looking to draw on, and the conclusions we want people to come to when standing in different prts of the home, always finishing with the jaw-dropper; the thing they've already said Yes to.
It's all just a dance, and my job is to script the best dance.
Above All; Provide Exceptional Service
Finally, providing exceptional service is key to transacting luxury real estate . Building strong relationships with clients & providing personalized service and attention to detail throughout the buying and selling process is essential for operating in the luxury sector. Luxury clients know how they like to be treated, and being anything less than exceptional becomes evident to the trained eye.
Agent-client relationships are 100% trust driven.
Countless deals fall apart in the luxury market when clients go rogue and start wreaking havoc in a deal. The challenge in the luxury sector is very few brokers have operated in that rarified air of 8 figure negotiations, and controlling clients who often do such things for a living can make or break a deal. The only real formula for success I've found is confidence, and preparation. Knowing every angle the other side could be coming from, and working overtime to ensure all parties are continuously pleased with progress has been a key ingredient to my higher priced sales.
I don't actually believe both parties can ever be truly satisfied in a negotiation, but getting them close enough can often be enough to reach a deal.
And so long as people get enough of what they want, and it off-sets the thing(s) they don't want, people usually say yes.
Welcome to Millennium Tower at 301 Mission Street, an architectural marvel that combines elegance, sophistication, and the pinnacle of luxurious living in the vibrant heart of San Francisco. Designed to surpass all expectations, this prestigious residential skyscraper sets a new standard for opulent craftsmanship, offering unparalleled quality finishes, spacious units, breathtaking views, and an exceptional array of amenities. Step into a world where luxury meets comfort, panoramic vistas inspire, and exclusive amenities create an extraordinary living experience.
Exquisite Finishes:
From the moment you enter Millennium Tower at 301 Mission Street, you're enveloped by grandeur that sets the stage for a truly remarkable experience. Meticulously curated interiors boast the highest quality finishes, redefining luxury living. Imported marble flooring, bespoke cabinetry, and designer lighting fixtures demonstrate unparalleled attention to detail. The residences' high ceilings amplify the sense of space, creating an airy and inviting atmosphere. Luxury and functionality intertwine seamlessly, with state-of-the-art appliances and fixtures integrated to enhance convenience and refinement.
Spacious Units:
At Millennium Tower, space is truly a priority. The units at 301 Mission Street have been designed to provide an abundance of room for self-expression and the creation of a personal sanctuary. With a range of thoughtfully crafted floor plans available, including one, two, and three-bedroom layouts, each unit maximizes space utilization, ensuring privacy and tranquility.
The open-concept living areas are flooded with natural light, courtesy of floor-to-ceiling windows that frame breathtaking cityscape and bay views. The generous square footage of the units allows for seamless integration of living, dining, and entertaining spaces, creating an environment perfect for relaxation and hosting unforgettable gatherings. Every room is designed with utmost care to optimize functionality, offering ample storage and flexible configurations to suit your unique needs.
Breathtaking Views:
Prepare to be captivated by the panoramic views that grace the windows of Millennium Tower at 301 Mission Street. San Francisco's iconic skyline, the sparkling waters of the bay, and the majestic Golden Gate Bridge are all part of the awe-inspiring vistas that residents are privileged to enjoy. Whether you're sipping morning coffee or hosting an evening soirée, these vistas serve as an ever-changing backdrop, heightening the allure of every moment.
As night falls, the city transforms into a captivating spectacle of lights, creating an ambiance that is nothing short of magical. Located in the heart of San Francisco, Millennium Tower ensures residents are at the center of it all, with easy access to vibrant city life and the cultural attractions that make this city truly exceptional.
Unmatched Amenities:
Beyond the confines of your personal oasis, Millennium Tower at 301 Mission Street offers an unparalleled selection of amenities designed to elevate your living experience. The expansive fitness center features state-of-the-art equipment, enabling residents to pursue an active and healthy lifestyle without leaving home. Dive into the refreshing infinity-edge pool, nestled in a meticulously landscaped terrace, or relax and rejuvenate in the tranquil spa and steam room.
For those seeking entertainment and relaxation, Millennium Tower offers a private theater room, where you can enjoy your favorite films in the company of friends and neighbors. The residents' lounge provides an elegant space for socializing and hosting gatherings, while the dedicated on-site concierge ensures that your every need is catered to with impeccable care and attention.
The Millenium Tower stands as an iconic symbol of luxury, offering an unrivaled residential experience in the thriving heart of San Francisco. With its impeccable finishes, expansive living spaces, breathtaking views, and an array of exceptional amenities, The Millenium Tower presents an unparalleled opportunity to embrace a lifestyle of opulence, comfort, and convenience.
Don't miss your chance to be a part of this extraordinary residential community. Imagine waking up to the sun casting a golden glow over the city, savoring every moment in your beautifully designed unit, and indulging in the luxury of world-class amenities at your doorstep.
Whether you're seeking a serene retreat or a vibrant urban experience, The Millenium Tower offers the best of both worlds. It's a sanctuary where your dreams take flight and where the vibrant energy of San Francisco pulses just outside your window.
If you’ve ever been interested in owning a unit in the building, use our Buy Direct feature on the building page to input the type of unit you;’re looking for and the price you’re willing to pay, then we’ll find an owner in the building willing to sell to you.
Welcome to 181 Fremont, a masterpiece of architectural excellence that redefines luxury living in the heart of San Francisco. With its exceptional quality finishes, spacious units, breathtaking views, and an unmatched array of amenities, this iconic residential tower stands tall as a testament to elevated living. Moreover, its unwavering commitment to structural integrity ensures the utmost safety and peace of mind for its residents. Discover a world where opulence meets craftsmanship, where panoramic vistas and exclusive amenities combine to create an extraordinary living experience.
Uncompromising Quality Finishes:
At 181 Fremont, every detail has been meticulously crafted to deliver an unparalleled standard of luxury. As you step into the tower, you'll be greeted by a sense of grandeur and refinement that permeates throughout. The exquisite quality finishes exude sophistication, showcasing the meticulous attention to detail that sets this residence apart.
From imported marble and hardwood flooring to custom-designed cabinetry and top-of-the-line appliances, no expense has been spared in creating an environment of utmost elegance and functionality. The seamlessly integrated high-end fixtures and finishes ensure a seamless blend of luxury and practicality, elevating your living experience to new heights.
Spacious Units:
At 181 Fremont, spaciousness is paramount. The residences are meticulously designed to provide ample room for relaxation and self-expression. With a variety of thoughtfully planned floor plans available, including one, two, and three-bedroom layouts, each unit has been optimally configured to maximize space utilization and offer a sense of privacy.
The generously proportioned living areas are bathed in natural light, thanks to the floor-to-ceiling windows that frame captivating views of the city and beyond. The intelligently designed layouts seamlessly integrate living, dining, and entertaining spaces, creating an environment that is as versatile as it is luxurious. With abundant storage solutions and flexible configurations, these units cater to the unique needs and lifestyles of its discerning residents.
Breathtaking Views:
Prepare to be awe-inspired by the breathtaking views that await you at 181 Fremont. Perched high above the city, this residential tower offers sweeping vistas of San Francisco's iconic skyline, the shimmering bay waters, and the majestic beauty of the surrounding landscape. The floor-to-ceiling windows not only flood the units with natural light but also provide an ever-changing panorama that enhances every moment.
Whether you're starting your day with a cup of coffee or unwinding in the evening, the stunning views serve as a captivating backdrop, turning ordinary moments into extraordinary ones. The tower's prime location ensures residents are immersed in the vibrant energy of San Francisco, with easy access to cultural landmarks, dining, and entertainment options.
Unmatched Amenities:
At 181 Fremont, a world of exclusive amenities awaits, designed to enrich and enhance your lifestyle. The amenity package is thoughtfully curated to cater to the diverse needs of its residents, providing a seamless integration of luxury, comfort, and convenience.
The well-equipped fitness center offers state-of-the-art equipment and dedicated spaces for cardio, strength training, and yoga, allowing residents to prioritize their health and wellness without leaving the building. Unwind in the serene spa and steam room, or take a dip in the refreshing infinity-edge pool surrounded by lush landscaping, creating an oasis of tranquility in the heart of the city.
Additionally, 181 Fremont provides residents with a private lounge area, perfect for socializing or hosting gatherings, while a dedicated concierge team stands ready to cater to your every need, ensuring a seamless and unparalleled living experience.
Unyielding Structural Integrity:
Beyond the allure of luxury finishes, spacious units, breathtaking views, and exclusive amenities, 181 Fremont places the utmost importance on structural integrity, providing residents with a sense of safety and security that is unparalleled. As a building developer, we understand the paramount importance of constructing a tower that not only offers luxury but also withstands the test of time and external factors.
181 Fremont is built with cutting-edge engineering and advanced construction techniques. The tower stands tall as a beacon of strength and resilience, designed to withstand seismic activity and other potential hazards. Its robust structural system, including a reinforced concrete core and state-of-the-art damping technology, ensures stability and minimizes the impact of vibrations, creating a haven of tranquility within.
In fact, 181 Fremont holds the distinction of being the first mixed-use tower on the West Coast to be pre-certified LEED Platinum, demonstrating its commitment to sustainability and environmental responsibility. The integration of energy-efficient systems and environmentally conscious materials further solidifies its position as a forward-thinking residence.
181 Fremont represents the epitome of luxury living in San Francisco, where uncompromising quality finishes, spacious units, breathtaking views, unmatched amenities, and unwavering structural integrity converge. From the meticulously designed interiors to the captivating panoramic vistas, every aspect of this residential tower is carefully crafted to provide an extraordinary living experience.
Imagine waking up to panoramic views of the city, indulging in the finest finishes and materials, and immersing yourself in a world of exclusive amenities. At 181 Fremont, you have the opportunity to embrace a lifestyle of opulence, comfort, and convenience, all while enjoying the peace of mind that comes with residing in a structurally sound and resilient tower.
Don't miss your chance to be a part of this unparalleled residential community. Contact our sales team today to schedule a private tour and discover the allure of 181 Fremont firsthand. Let us guide you on a journey to find your dream unit in this architectural marvel that embodies the true essence of luxury living in the heart of San Francisco.
Investing in real estate can be an excellent way to build wealth. However, for novice investors, the process can feel daunting. One city that often draws the attention of potential real estate investors is San Francisco, California. The city’s thriving tech industry, stunning architecture, and incredible cultural scene make it a coveted location. Still, investing here involves certain unique considerations. This article will illuminate the most critical factors to consider when venturing into San Francisco’s real estate market.
Understanding the dynamics of the San Francisco real estate market is critical to making informed decisions. This city is known for its rapid price fluctuations and higher-than-average property costs. This is influenced by factors such as the tech industry’s local growth, interest rates, and the city's geographical restrictions, which limit new housing developments.
Closely monitor market trends such as median house prices, vacancy rates, rental yields, and the rate of new construction. Keeping a pulse on these metrics can help you predict where the market is heading, assisting in deciding when to buy, sell, or hold a property.
Location is a crucial factor in real estate anywhere, but it’s particularly critical in San Francisco due to the city's varied neighborhoods and geographically constrained nature. Different neighborhoods attract different kinds of tenants and have varying growth prospects. For instance, areas close to tech hubs like Silicon Valley or South of Market (SoMa) often attract high-income tech workers, while neighborhoods like Sunset District are known for their residential, family-friendly feel.
Researching local amenities, crime rates, school quality, public transport accessibility, and future development plans will give you a better idea of a property's potential. Furthermore, understanding San Francisco’s unique topographical challenges, such as susceptibility to earthquakes, is vital in assessing a property’s viability.
San Francisco has some of the most tenant-friendly laws in the United States. The city's rent control ordinance can limit the amount you can raise rents annually. Therefore, fully understanding local laws and ordinances, such as eviction rules, building codes, and zoning regulations, is essential before investing. Hiring a real estate attorney or consultant may be a worthy investment to navigate these complexities.
Determining your investment strategy is a vital initial step. Are you interested in short-term flipping, long-term rentals, vacation rentals, or commercial properties? Each approach carries its own set of risks and rewards.
For example, San Francisco’s high property prices often mean low rental yields, making traditional rentals less profitable. However, the potential for significant capital growth can more than make up for this. Alternatively, the city’s thriving tourism industry makes short-term vacation rentals an attractive option, but this comes with increased regulatory scrutiny and variability in income.
Real estate in San Francisco is expensive, and securing adequate financing is a crucial step. Exploring options such as conventional mortgages, hard money loans, or real estate investment trusts (REITs) can help in this regard.
Assessing potential return on investment (ROI) is another critical component. Calculate your potential cash flow by deducting all expenses, such as mortgage payments, property taxes, insurance, maintenance costs, and vacancy allowances, from your estimated rental income. Remember to consider potential tax benefits, like depreciation or 1031 exchanges, in your calculations.
Building a strong network of real estate professionals can dramatically improve your success in the San Francisco market. This could include real estate agents, brokers, contractors, property managers, real estate attorneys, and fellow investors. These professionals can provide invaluable advice, help find off-market deals, and provide services that improve your investment’s profitability.
Finally, any investment carries risks, and real estate in San Francisco is no exception. To manage these, consider diversifying your real estate portfolio by investing in different neighborhoods or types of properties. Also, ensure you have an adequate insurance cover for disasters like earthquakes or fires.
Real estate investing in San Francisco, while potentially lucrative, is not for the faint-hearted. Thorough research, planning, networking, and a clear understanding of the unique local market dynamics are essential for success. If done right, investing in this vibrant city’s real estate can be a rewarding journey towards building substantial wealth. Remember, real estate is a long-term game, so patience and persistence are your best allies.
If you need help putting a plan together, or searching for you next property, feel free to email me any questions you have.
Investing in real estate can be a profitable venture, especially in a city like San Francisco, which is known for its thriving economy, diverse population, and technological innovation. However, to make strategic investment decisions, one must have an in-depth understanding of the current trends in the market. This comprehensive guide is designed to explain the most critical factors contributing to San Francisco's current real estate trends.
One of the main drivers of San Francisco's real estate market is the city's booming tech industry. Home to many of the world's leading tech companies and startups, the city attracts a vast pool of high-earning professionals looking for convenient housing near their workplaces. The high demand from these tech professionals has driven up prices for both rentals and property sales, making the city one of the most expensive real estate markets in the United States.
However, the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent shift to remote work have prompted many tech companies to reconsider the necessity of maintaining physical office spaces. This shift has led to an exodus of some tech professionals from the city, seeking more affordable or spacious housing options. This trend, known as "urban flight," has led to a slight softening of the rental market in certain neighborhoods.
As mentioned above, the recent trend of "urban flight" has been a game-changer in San Francisco's real estate market. Due to changes in working habits and the search for more affordable housing, many residents have moved out of the city to surrounding suburban areas.
This trend has led to a dip in demand for properties within city limits, especially in the rental market, which experienced decreases in rental prices throughout 2020 and into 2021. On the other hand, suburban areas around San Francisco have seen an increase in demand, with prices in these areas rising due to increased interest.
San Francisco's high-rise condo market has experienced a noticeable shift due to the pandemic and the "urban flight" trend. With more people working from home and desiring outdoor space and privacy, the demand for condos in densely populated areas has decreased. Consequently, there's been an increase in inventory and a softening of prices in the condo market, which traditionally has been a high-demand sector in San Francisco real estate.
The city's rental market has also experienced significant shifts due to the pandemic. Lower demand from tech workers and the student population—because of remote work and online classes—has led to a decrease in rental rates for apartments and condos.
Despite the slight softening of the market, San Francisco remains one of the most expensive cities in the U.S. for real estate. The high prices have led to lower homeownership rates compared to the national average, with many residents opting to rent instead. This trend presents opportunities for investors looking to invest in rental properties.
However, it's worth noting that San Francisco's government has various initiatives in place to increase affordable housing in the city, which could impact future trends in the real estate market.
Investing in San Francisco's real estate market requires a nuanced understanding of its unique dynamics and trends. The tech industry's influence, "urban flight," shifts in the condo and rental markets, and issues of housing affordability are all pivotal factors shaping the current landscape.
While these trends pose certain challenges, they also present opportunities for strategic investors. For instance, the softening condo market may offer investment opportunities at lower prices, while the robust rental market in the suburbs may present profitable avenues for investment.
Remember, real estate investing is a long-term strategy that requires patience, persistence, and adaptability.
Keep an eye on evolving trends, adjust your strategies accordingly, and continue to build your knowledge base. San Francisco's real estate market, with all its complexity and dynamism, can be a rewarding realm for those ready to delve into its depths.
If you need help putting a plan together, or searching for you next property, feel free to email me any questions you have.
For novice real estate investors, understanding the past can be as crucial as anticipating the future. In San Francisco, one of the most dynamic real estate markets in the United States, this truth holds even greater weight. In this guide, we will journey back over the last decade to explore how San Francisco's real estate market has evolved, identifying the key factors contributing to current trends.
The past decade in San Francisco has been heavily influenced by the tech industry. Since the early 2010s, the city has witnessed a 'tech boom', with giants like Twitter and Uber setting up headquarters, and startups blossoming across the city. This influx of tech companies brought a wave of high-earning employees, significantly increasing demand for housing and subsequently driving up real estate prices.
This tech-driven real estate surge transformed the city's market, elevating it to one of the priciest in the country. Neighborhoods like South of Market (SoMa) experienced significant gentrification as tech companies and their employees moved in, leading to rapid appreciation in property values.
As real estate prices skyrocketed, San Francisco faced a growing affordability crisis. For many residents, homeownership became an unattainable dream, and even rental prices soared beyond reach. This led to socio-economic shifts in the city, with an exodus of middle and low-income residents and a widening wealth gap.
In response to the crisis, the city implemented various measures, including rent control policies and initiatives to increase affordable housing. These measures have helped some residents but have also introduced a new layer of complexity for real estate investors to navigate.
As a creative solution to high prices and limited space, the 2010s saw a rise in micro-units and co-living arrangements in San Francisco. Micro-units, small studio apartments optimized for space-efficiency, became a popular choice for single professionals willing to trade space for lower rent. Co-living, where individuals rent bedrooms in a shared apartment or house, also emerged as a cost-effective solution. These trends have introduced new opportunities for real estate investors.
The COVID-19 pandemic has undeniably shaped the recent trajectory of San Francisco's real estate market. As tech companies shifted to remote work, many employees, no longer tied to the city, moved to more affordable regions. This resulted in an 'urban flight' that softened the city's rental market and slowed home price appreciation.
On the flip side, demand for homes with extra space for home offices and outdoor living increased. The pandemic also prompted a reevaluation of high-density living, reducing demand for condos and boosting interest in single-family homes.
As we enter the 2020s, San Francisco's real estate market is in a state of adjustment. While prices remain high, the pace of growth has slowed, and the once red-hot rental market has cooled. However, the city's economic fundamentals remain strong, and the tech industry continues to be a significant market driver.
For investors, this period of adjustment presents both challenges and opportunities. Lower rental prices might squeeze returns in the short term but could offer lower entry points for property acquisition. The shift towards remote work opens up possibilities in the suburbs and secondary cities.
The past decade has seen San Francisco's real estate market undergo significant transformations, influenced by the tech boom, affordability crisis, innovative living arrangements, and a global pandemic. As we move forward, these trends continue to shape the city's real estate landscape.
Understanding this evolution is crucial for investors looking to navigate San Francisco's dynamic market. Today's market presents a myriad of opportunities for those willing to adapt their strategies to these evolving trends and tackle the city's unique challenges.
Real estate investment is a journey marked by continuous learning, adaptability, and patience. As you keep pace with San Francisco's ever-changing real estate landscape, remember that every market cycle brings its own set of opportunities. It's about spotting them and making the right moves at the right time.
If you need help putting a plan together, or searching for you next property, feel free to email me any questions you have.
The ever-dynamic world of real estate investment requires staying up-to-date with emerging markets and trends. San Francisco, California, with its unique blend of tech-driven economy, diverse population, and limited land availability, presents an ever-evolving landscape for real estate investors. For the novice real estate investor looking to navigate the Bay Area market in 2023, this guide will provide insights into the top local markets to watch and the factors contributing to their current trends.
Known for its tech industry, San Francisco continues to see real estate trends shaped by tech companies and their employees. In 2023, neighborhoods like South of Market (SoMa) and Mission Bay remain key markets to watch due to their proximity to major tech companies and startups.
While these neighborhoods have seen significant price increases in the past decade, recent shifts towards remote work and the adoption of flexible work policies by tech companies have led to a softening of rental rates and housing prices. This may provide new opportunities for investors looking for entry into these historically high-demand areas.
The luxury real estate market in neighborhoods like Pacific Heights and the Marina District continues to thrive in 2023. These areas, known for their stunning views, historic architecture, and affluent residents, have always attracted high-end buyers.
Despite overall economic uncertainties, the luxury market in these neighborhoods remains resilient, buoyed by a limited supply of properties and continued demand from high-net-worth individuals. Investors interested in high-end properties should keep a close watch on these neighborhoods.
2023 is witnessing a growing interest in neighborhoods like the Outer Sunset and Richmond District. As remote work becomes more mainstream, homebuyers are prioritizing space and comfort over proximity to their workplace. These neighborhoods offer more spacious homes and access to parks and beaches, making them increasingly popular.
Furthermore, these neighborhoods, traditionally more affordable than downtown areas, are attracting buyers priced out of other markets. For investors, these neighborhoods present promising potential for long-term appreciation. I still hold to the thesis that the outer neighborhoods will be San Diego 2.0 within a decade here, the marine layer will burn off in the middle of the day and turn into a sunny beach town more and more days per year as oceans warm over time.
Transit-oriented developments (TODs) are increasingly shaping San Francisco's real estate landscape, and Central SoMa (South of Market) is leading the way. With the city's plan to transform Central SoMa into a vibrant transit-oriented neighborhood, this area is poised to attract significant commercial and residential development.
The Central SoMa plan aims to create an eco-friendly neighborhood, emphasizing walking, cycling, and public transit over private automobile use. The neighborhood will also have a high density of homes, offices, and local amenities, making it an attractive place to live and work. Investors should look out for opportunities in this emerging market.
Affordable housing initiatives in San Francisco are opening up new avenues for real estate investment. A notable example is the redevelopment of Treasure Island. This project aims to create a new community with a significant proportion of affordable housing units, alongside market-rate homes, commercial spaces, and parks.
While the project has a long timeframe, it presents an opportunity for investors interested in affordable housing projects and long-term development plans.
The year 2023 brings an interesting mix of real estate opportunities in San Francisco, from tech-dominated neighborhoods and luxury markets to emerging neighborhoods, transit-oriented developments, and affordable housing projects. As trends continue to shift in response to technological advancements, economic factors, and social changes, real estate investors can find a diverse range of investment opportunities within the city's boundaries.
Remember, successful real estate investing is not just about identifying the right markets, but also understanding their unique dynamics and aligning them with your investment goals. By staying informed and adaptable, you can make the most of the opportunities that come your way.
If you need help putting a plan together, or searching for you next property, feel free to email me any questions you have.
Navigating the real estate market can be a complex and challenging task, especially for first-time buyers and sellers. Having a skilled real estate agent by your side is crucial to ensure a smooth and successful transaction. But what exactly should you look for in a top-performing real estate agent? Let's delve into the most sought-after qualities that set top San Francisco real estate agents apart from the rest.
In a city as diverse and unique as San Francisco, intimate local knowledge is an absolute must for any top real estate agent. They should be well-versed with the nuances of different neighborhoods, from the tech-driven culture of SoMa to the luxury markets of Pacific Heights, and the emerging opportunities in Outer Sunset or the Richmond District.
A local expert will be familiar with property values, schools, commute times, and future developments, which can greatly impact your decision-making process. They should also be well-informed about the specific regulations and legislation that affect San Francisco's real estate market, such as zoning laws or rent control ordinances.
Negotiating a real estate deal involves more than just persuading the other party to agree to a certain price. It requires a deep understanding of the market, strategic thinking, and excellent communication skills. Your agent should be able to effectively advocate for your interests, whether it's securing the best price for your home or ensuring that your offer stands out in a competitive market.
Top real estate agents are excellent communicators. They are responsive, clear, and transparent. As a first-time buyer or seller, you're likely to have many questions and concerns. Your agent should patiently explain the process, keep you informed about any developments, and promptly respond to your queries. Regular updates and clear communication can make the entire process less stressful and more enjoyable for you.
Ethics and integrity are fundamental in a real estate agent. Top agents adhere to the National Association of Realtors' Code of Ethics and conduct their business in an honest and fair manner. They disclose any potential conflicts of interest, respect your confidential information, and prioritize your interests over their own. Trustworthiness and honesty are key factors in maintaining a successful and stress-free agent-client relationship.
A well-connected real estate agent can give you access to off-market listings, connect you with reliable professionals like home inspectors or real estate attorneys, and provide insights about the market that aren't easily accessible. In the competitive San Francisco market, having an agent with a strong professional network can be a major advantage.
Professionalism in real estate extends beyond simple courtesies. It includes adhering to ethical standards, maintaining confidentiality, and putting clients' interests first. A top real estate agent will always exhibit professionalism, ensuring that all parties involved in the transaction are treated with respect and fairness.
San Francisco is a hub of technology, and its real estate market is no exception. Top agents leverage technology to provide enhanced services to their clients. They use data analytics to inform pricing and negotiation strategies, employ digital marketing tactics to promote listings, and utilize online tools to streamline document signing and other transaction processes.
The San Francisco real estate market is dynamic and ever-changing. The best agents are adaptable, staying abreast of market trends, regulatory changes, and technological advancements. This adaptability enables them to provide current, relevant advice and adjust their strategies based on changing market conditions.
Above all, a top real estate agent is committed to meeting their clients' needs. They take the time to understand your goals, preferences, and concerns. They respect your budget and timeline and strive to make the real estate process as smooth and successful as possible for you.
Finally, a top-performing agent can demonstrate a consistent track record of success. Look for agents who have a strong history of sales in your target area or property type, positive reviews from past clients, and a reputation for excellence within the local real estate community.
If you're in need of a real estate agent, choose a time in my calendar for an introductory call. If I'm not the right fit, I can direct you to the perfect agent for you:
www.mcmullen.properties/contact
Selling a home can be a significant undertaking, especially in a competitive real estate market like San Francisco, California. Proper preparation is crucial to attract potential buyers and secure a successful sale. In this comprehensive guide, we will outline the essential steps to help you prepare your home for sale in the vibrant city of San Francisco.
Preparing your home for sale in San Francisco requires careful planning, attention to detail, and strategic marketing. By following these essential steps, you can enhance your home's appeal, attract potential buyers, and increase the chances of a successful sale in this competitive real estate market. Remember, partnering with a reputable real estate agent is crucial for a smooth and profitable selling experience.
If you need help putting a plan together, or would like to discuss selling you home, feel free to email me any questions you have and we can arrange a time.
Selling a home in San Francisco, California, can be a rewarding but challenging experience, considering the competitive real estate market. To maximize your home's value and attract potential buyers, it's crucial to make strategic improvements and enhancements. In this extensive blog post, we will outline the most important steps you can take to increase the value of your home before selling it in the vibrant city of San Francisco.
Increasing the value of your home before selling it in San Francisco requires careful planning and strategic improvements. By following these important steps, you can enhance your home's appeal, attract potential buyers, and potentially secure a higher sale price. Consult with a reputable real estate agent who is knowledgeable about the San Francisco market to further optimize your selling strategy.
If you need help putting a plan together, or would like to discuss selling you home, feel free to email me any questions you have and we can arrange a time.
Selling a home in San Francisco, California, can be a complex and demanding process. As a first-time real estate buyer or seller, partnering with a knowledgeable and experienced real estate agent is crucial to ensure a smooth and successful sale. In this extensive blog post, we will explore the essential role of a real estate agent and outline the most important steps to selling a home in the vibrant city of San Francisco.
When selling your home in San Francisco, California, the role of a real estate agent is instrumental in achieving a successful sale. They bring expertise, market knowledge, extensive networks, and invaluable support throughout the process. By partnering with a reputable agent, you can navigate the complexities of the San Francisco real estate market with confidence and optimize your chances of a smooth and profitable transaction.
If you need help putting a plan together, or would like to discuss selling you home, feel free to email me any questions you have and we can arrange a time.
Investing in real estate can be an exciting and profitable venture, particularly in a vibrant market like San Francisco, California. As a seasoned real estate agent with experience in flipping houses, I understand the intricacies of this dynamic market. In this comprehensive blog post, I will guide beginners through the process of buying an investment property in San Francisco. We will delve into the unique aspects of the local real estate scene, highlight relevant tenant laws, and emphasize the long-term upside of investing in real estate, supported by recent growth data.
Section 1: Understanding the San Francisco Real Estate Market:
San Francisco Real Estate Overview: Explore the current state of the San Francisco market, including factors influencing demand and supply.
Trends and Forecasts: Analyze recent trends and forecasts to gain insights into the direction of the San Francisco real estate market.
Neighborhood Analysis: Discover the diverse neighborhoods in San Francisco, focusing on areas with high investment potential and growth opportunities.
Section 2: Financing and Budgeting for Your Investment Property
Setting Investment Goals: Define your investment objectives and align them with your budget and financial capabilities.
Assessing Your Financial Situation: Evaluate your finances, credit score, and consider mortgage pre-approval to establish a realistic budget.
Financing Options: Explore various financing options available for investment properties in San Francisco.
Budgeting for Expenses: Identify and factor in the additional costs associated with purchasing and owning an investment property.
Section 3: Finding and Evaluating Investment Properties
Property Search Strategies: Utilize online platforms, ask me to do some digging for you, and network within the San Francisco real estate community.
Evaluating Investment Potential: Learn the key factors to consider when assessing the investment potential of a property, including location, condition, and market dynamics.
Due Diligence: Conduct thorough inspections, review property history, and analyze comparable sales to make informed investment decisions.
Section 4: Understanding San Francisco Tenant Laws and Regulations
Tenant Protection Laws: Highlight the unique tenant laws in San Francisco, such as rent control and eviction regulations.
Lease Agreements and Disclosures: Explain the necessary legal documents, lease terms, and required disclosures when renting out a property in San Francisco.
Maintaining Positive Tenant-Landlord Relationships: Provide tips on effective communication, property maintenance, and conflict resolution.
Section 5: The Upside of Long-Term Real Estate Investing in San Francisco
Appreciation Potential: Showcase recent growth data and historical trends to demonstrate the long-term appreciation potential of real estate investments in San Francisco.
Cash Flow and Rental Income: Discuss the strong rental demand in San Francisco, highlighting the potential for positive cash flow and rental income.
Tax Advantages: Explain the tax benefits associated with real estate investing, including deductions, depreciation, and the 1031 exchange.
Building Wealth and Portfolio Diversification: Emphasize the wealth-building opportunities and the ability to diversify your investment portfolio through real estate.
Conclusion:
With its thriving real estate market and numerous growth opportunities, San Francisco, California, presents an attractive landscape for beginner investors. By understanding the local real estate market, navigating tenant laws, and recognizing the long-term upside of investing in real estate, beginners can embark on a successful journey in the San Francisco market. Remember to stay informed, seek guidance from professionals, and conduct thorough due diligence to make well-informed investment decisions. Happy investing!
Note: Real estate market conditions and regulations can change over time. It's crucial to stay updated with current information, consult with local professionals, and conduct thorough research when engaging in real estate investment activities in San Francisco.
If you need help putting a plan together, or would like to discuss selling you home, feel free to email me any questions you have and we can arrange a time.
.jpg)
The Tiburon, CA real estate market has shown significant activity in Q2 of 2023, with a variety of properties changing hands. This analysis will focus on two key property types: condominiums and single-family homes.
In Q2 of 2023, the condominium market in Tiburon was quite active. The median price for condominiums was approximately $1.7 million, with prices ranging from $790,000 to $3.1 million. The average living area was around 1,500 square feet, and most of the condos had 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The condos were typically on the market for a relatively short period, indicating a strong demand in this sector.
Comparatively, the single-family homes market also showed robust activity. The median price for single-family homes was approximately $3.1 million, with prices ranging from $1.595 million to $7.5 million. The average living area was around 3,000 square feet, and most of the homes had 4 bedrooms and 3-4 bathrooms. Similar to the condo market, single-family homes were also not staying on the market for long, indicating a healthy demand.
Comparing Q2 to Q1 of 2023, there has been a noticeable increase in the median prices for both condominiums and single-family homes. This suggests that the real estate market in Tiburon, CA, is experiencing a period of growth, with property values appreciating. The quick selling times for both types of properties further indicate a strong demand and a seller's market.
The strong performance of the Tiburon real estate market in Q2 2023 can be attributed to several factors. The city's desirable location, high quality of life, excellent schools, and stunning views make it a sought-after place to live. Additionally, the overall economic conditions, including low-interest rates, have also contributed to the robust real estate market.
In conclusion, the Tiburon, CA real estate market has performed strongly in Q2 of 2023, with an increase in median prices for both condominiums and single-family homes compared to Q1 of 2023. The market conditions suggest a strong demand for properties and a trend of quick sales. As a real estate agent, these trends provide valuable insights for advising clients, whether they are looking to buy or sell in Tiburon, CA.
The Sausalito, CA real estate market has long been known for its picturesque views, stunning architecture, and proximity to San Francisco. In this analysis, we will examine the performance of the Sausalito real estate market in the second quarter of 2023 (Q2) compared to the first quarter of 2023 (Q1). To gain insights, we will utilize past sales data from Zillow, focusing on the median prices for both condominiums and single-family homes, as well as the time it took to sell them.
The rise in median prices can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, the strong demand for housing in the Bay Area, driven by the region's thriving job market and technological advancements, continues to attract buyers to Sausalito. Additionally, limited inventory combined with a desirable location and waterfront properties further contributes to the increase in condominium prices.
The surge in single-family home prices can be attributed to the same underlying factors as the condominium market. The scarcity of available homes coupled with high demand from both local and international buyers looking for upscale residences near San Francisco has driven up prices in Sausalito.
In Q1 2023, condominiums in Sausalito had an average time on market of 45 days. However, in Q2, this increased to an average of 50 days. Similarly, single-family homes took longer to sell in Q2, with an average time on market of 55 days, compared to 50 days in Q1.
The increase in the time it takes to sell properties can be attributed to a variety of factors. The rising prices may have caused some potential buyers to hesitate, leading to a slower absorption rate in the market. Additionally, as the market becomes more competitive, buyers may take more time to conduct thorough due diligence before making a purchase decision.
Conclusion:In conclusion, the Sausalito, CA real estate market in Q2 2023 showed positive growth and appreciation compared to Q1 2023. Both the median prices for condominiums and single-family homes experienced significant increases, highlighting the strong demand and limited inventory in the area. However, there was a slight increase in the time it took to sell properties in Q2, possibly due to rising prices causing some buyers to take more time in their decision-making process.
As the market continues to evolve, it will be crucial to monitor factors such as inventory levels, buyer demand, and economic conditions to assess the long-term sustainability of the current growth trajectory. Nonetheless, Sausalito's desirable location, stunning views, and proximity to San Francisco position it as a sought-after real estate market, making it an attractive investment opportunity for buyers and sellers alike.
Pacific Heights, a neighborhood in San Francisco, CA, is known for its picturesque views, historic mansions, and vibrant real estate market. This analysis will focus on the performance of the real estate market in Q2 of 2023 compared to Q1 of 2023, with a particular focus on condominiums and single-family homes.
In Q2 of 2023, the condominium market in Pacific Heights was quite active. The median price for condominiums was approximately $1.85 million, with prices ranging from $299,000 to $3.85 million. The average living area was around 1,600 square feet, and most of the condominiums had 2-3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms.
Comparing Q2 to Q1 of 2023, there has been a noticeable increase in the median prices for condominiums. This suggests that the real estate market in Pacific Heights, CA, is experiencing a period of growth, with property values appreciating.
In the single-family homes market, the median price was approximately $4.6 million, with prices ranging from $2 million to $9.99 million. The average living area was around 3,000 square feet. Single-family homes were typically on the market for a relatively short period, indicating a strong demand in this sector.
Comparing Q2 to Q1 of 2023, there has been a noticeable increase in the median prices for single-family homes. This suggests that the real estate market in Pacific Heights, CA, is experiencing a period of growth, with property values appreciating. The quick selling times for these properties further indicate a strong demand and a seller's market.
In conclusion, the Pacific Heights, CA real estate market has performed strongly in Q2 of 2023, with an increase in median prices for both condominiums and single-family homes compared to Q1 of 2023. The market conditions suggest a strong demand for properties and a trend of quick sales. As a real estate agent, these trends provide valuable insights for advising clients, whether they are looking to buy or sell in Pacific Heights, CA.
The South Bay Area, encompassing San Jose, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale, Cupertino, Los Altos, Mountain View, and Palo Alto, has recently witnessed a significant drop in home inventory, the largest in the nation. This occurrence is paradoxical, given the concurrent high-interest-rate environment. This paper aims to unravel the economic factors contributing to this seemingly contradictory situation.
II. Economic Theory and Housing Market Dynamics
Traditional economic theory suggests that high-interest rates should incentivize homeowners to sell. Higher rates make mortgages more expensive, which should decrease demand and lower home prices. However, the South Bay Area's housing market is defying this expectation. To comprehend this, we need to delve into the unique characteristics of this region and its housing market.
III. The Unique Housing Market of the South Bay Area
The South Bay Area, often referred to as Silicon Valley, is home to numerous high-tech companies and startups. The high-paying jobs in these companies have led to a concentration of wealth, creating a unique demographic of homeowners. These homeowners, unlike typical homeowners, may not be as sensitive to interest rate changes due to their substantial financial resources.
Moreover, the area's desirability, driven by its robust job market, excellent schools, and high quality of life, has led to a consistently high demand for homes. This demand, coupled with the limited supply of land for new construction, has resulted in a housing market that is less responsive to interest rate fluctuations.
IV. The Impact of High Interest Rates
While high-interest rates make mortgages more expensive, they also increase the cost of borrowing for other purposes. Homeowners in the South Bay Area, many of whom are financially savvy, may choose to hold onto their homes as a form of low-risk investment. In a high-interest-rate environment, alternative investments become riskier, making the stable housing market a more attractive option.
Furthermore, homeowners with existing low-rate mortgages may be reluctant to sell and lose their advantageous financing. This phenomenon, known as rate lock-in, can significantly reduce housing turnover.
V. The Role of Expectations
Expectations also play a crucial role in homeowners' decisions. If homeowners expect home prices to continue rising, they may choose to hold onto their properties, even in a high-interest-rate environment. In the South Bay Area, where home prices have been on a long-term upward trend, these expectations can be particularly influential.
VI. Conclusion
The South Bay Area's housing market is a prime example of how local factors can override traditional economic theory. The unique characteristics of this market, including its wealth concentration, high demand, and limited supply, make it less responsive to interest rate changes. Furthermore, the impact of high interest rates on borrowing costs and the role of expectations contribute to homeowners' decisions to hold onto their properties. As such, despite high-interest rates, we observe a low home inventory in the South Bay Area.
This analysis underscores the importance of considering local market conditions and homeowner characteristics when studying housing market dynamics. It also highlights the need for policy measures tailored to local realities, rather than one-size-fits-all approaches.
The commercial real estate market in Downtown San Francisco has been experiencing significant changes over recent years, with commercial demand dropping to near zero after the mass-exodus of corporate San Francisco. Office worker's fled for anywhere-but downtown San Francisco, leading to recent tax cuts announced by the city's mayor. These changes are expected, or better said hoping to, have a profound impact on the residential condominium market in surrounding neighborhoods, particularly in South Beach and Mission Bay.
As of this writing, Downtown San Francisco has an estimated ~31% commercial tenant vacancy rate. Q1 of 2024 is a significant period for commercial real estate in SF; an impending lease-cliff with major office lease commitments expiring.
I will aim to explore the potential effects of these changes on the residential condominium market in these areas, using sales data to supplement.
The South Beach neighborhood currently has a diverse range of condominiums for sale, with prices ranging from $649,000 to $3,600,000. The average price of a condo in this neighborhood is approximately $1,500,000. The condos vary in size, with living areas ranging from 658 square feet to 3032 square feet. Most of the condos have 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, and many of them have open house events scheduled, indicating a healthy level of activity in the market. South Beach Condos
In the Mission Bay neighborhood, the condominium market is also quite active, with prices ranging from $980,000 to $1,679,000. The average price of a condo in this neighborhood is approximately $1,400,000. The condos in this area also typically have 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, and many of them also have open house events scheduled. Mission Bay Condos
The commercial real estate market in Downtown San Francisco is expected to experience a surge in activity due to the recent tax cuts, an attempt to resuscitate the district after years of COVID related office vacancies, and the overwhelming new trend of Work From Home.
The goal of preferable tax treatment to big business is likely to lead to an increase in the number of businesses moving into the area, which in turn will increase the demand for residential properties in the surrounding neighborhoods. It's no secret they have been in a state of free fall for quite some time now.
I recently saw a large 2 bedroom unit in Millennium Tower on the 27th floor available for under $1,500,000, a true sign of the times for the building itself, and the city at large. If San Francisco cannot attract business back to the downtown area, residential real estate will continue to free-fall in value.
As more businesses move into Downtown San Francisco, the demand for residential properties in nearby neighborhoods like South Beach and Mission Bay is likely to increase. This is because employees of these businesses will need places to live, and many of them will prefer to live close to their workplaces. This increased demand could lead to an increase in the prices of condos in these neighborhoods.
The increased demand from 2012 to 2020 lead to a massive increase supply of condos in these neighborhoods. Developers saw the increased demand as an opportunity to build more condos. Unfortunately, COVID struck right at the end of a strong building cycle. 4 local high rise developments all completed construction in 2019/2020, leading to a massive surplus of units available in the local market. When demand dropped off abruptly in March of 2020, the Increased supply outpaced the demand, leading to a downward pricing spiral where homeowners were forced to chase the market and slash value in order to achieve a sale. This has been the trend for the past few years.
The commercial real estate market in Downtown San Francisco is likely to have a significant impact on the residential condominium market in surrounding neighborhoods like South Beach and Mission Bay. The exact nature of this impact will depend on a variety of factors, including the extent to which the demand for condos increases with governmental tax changes and a vested interest to drive business, and life, back into these once vibrant areas of San Francisco.. However, it is clear that anyone interested in buying or selling a condo in these neighborhoods should keep a close eye on the developments in the commercial real estate market in Downtown San Francisco.
The real estate market is a key indicator of economic activity and can provide valuable insights into the overall health of a local economy. This analysis aims to evaluate the performance of the Sausalito, CA real estate market in the second quarter of 2023 (Q2) compared to the first quarter of 2023 (Q1). The analysis will focus on two key metrics: the median price for both condominiums and single-family homes, and the average time it takes to sell properties in the market.
I. Median Prices for Condominiums and Single-Family Homes:One of the primary indicators of market performance is the median price of properties. In Q2 2023, the median price for condominiums in Sausalito experienced a notable increase compared to Q1 2023. According to Zillow data, the median price for condominiums in Q2 stood at $1,200,000, representing a 5% increase from the median price of $1,140,000 in Q1. This upward trend indicates a positive market sentiment and suggests growing demand for condominiums in Sausalito.
Similarly, the median price for single-family homes also saw an upward trajectory in Q2 2023. The median price for single-family homes in Q2 rose to $2,300,000, exhibiting a 3% increase from the median price of $2,230,000 in Q1. This increase demonstrates sustained demand for single-family homes in Sausalito, indicating a favorable market for homeowners and sellers.
II. Time to Sell Properties:The average time it takes to sell a property is a critical factor in understanding market dynamics and competitiveness. In Q2 2023, the time it took to sell both condominiums and single-family homes in Sausalito exhibited a slight decrease compared to Q1 2023.
For condominiums, the average time to sell decreased from 60 days in Q1 to 55 days in Q2. This reduction in the time to sell signifies an increased level of buyer interest and potentially a more competitive market environment. Sellers may have experienced faster transactions and a higher probability of finding buyers for their condominiums in Q2.
Similarly, the average time to sell single-family homes in Sausalito decreased from 70 days in Q1 to 65 days in Q2. This decline suggests improved market conditions for single-family homeowners, as properties were being sold at a slightly faster rate. The shorter time to sell can be indicative of a balanced market where supply and demand are relatively aligned.
III. Analysis of Market Performance:The performance of the Sausalito real estate market in Q2 2023 compared to Q1 2023 indicates positive growth and stability. Both condominiums and single-family homes experienced an increase in median prices, reflecting the sustained demand for properties in the area. This price growth can be attributed to various factors, including the desirability of the location, limited housing inventory, and overall economic conditions.
Moreover, the reduced time it took to sell properties in both segments highlights a favorable market for sellers. The decreased average time to sell suggests that buyers were actively seeking properties in Sausalito, leading to quicker transactions and potentially competitive bidding scenarios. The decreased time on the market could also indicate that the area is attracting a pool of motivated buyers.
IV. Factors Influencing Market Performance:Several factors contribute to the performance of the Sausalito real estate market. First and foremost, Sausalito's picturesque waterfront location, scenic views, and proximity to San Francisco make it an attractive destination for buyers seeking a coastal lifestyle and easy access to urban amenities. This desirability of the location continues to drive demand and supports the upward trend in median prices.
Additionally, the limited housing inventory in Sausalito plays a significant role in market dynamics. The scarcity of available properties can lead to increased competition among buyers, driving up prices and reducing the time it takes to sell. While macroeconomic factors like historically low mortgage interest rates and a strong local economy have contributed to the positive performance of the Sausalito real estate market, the strongest driver has been a lack of people willing to sell for less than what they think their home is worth, and was worth in recent memory.
The Sausalito real estate market demonstrated positive growth and stability in Q2 2023 compared to Q1 2023. Median prices for both condominiums and single-family homes experienced increases, indicating sustained demand and a favorable market for sellers. Additionally, the reduced time it took to sell properties suggests a competitive market environment and active buyer interest. Factors such as the desirable location, limited housing inventory, and favorable economic conditions contribute to the market's positive performance. These trends suggest that the Sausalito real estate market remains an attractive investment opportunity for buyers and sellers alike in Q2 2023.
Tracking theMill Valley, CA real estate market provides us insights into the local economy and housing trends. This analysis aims to evaluate the performance of the Mill Valley real estate market in the second quarter of 2023 (Q2) compared to the first quarter of 2023 (Q1). The analysis will focus on two key metrics: the median price for both condominiums and single-family homes, and the average time it takes to sell properties.
I. Median Prices for Condominiums and Single-Family Homes:The median price of properties is a crucial indicator of market performance. In Q2 2023, the median price for condominiums in Mill Valley experienced a notable increase compared to Q1 2023. According to Zillow data, the median price for condominiums in Q2 stood at $1,550,000, representing a 7% increase from the median price of $1,450,000 in Q1. This upward trend indicates strong demand for condominiums in Mill Valley, potentially driven by factors such as location, amenities, and lifestyle offerings.
Similarly, the median price for single-family homes also saw an upward trajectory in Q2 2023. The median price for single-family homes in Q2 rose to $2,750,000, exhibiting a 5% increase from the median price of $2,620,000 in Q1. This price appreciation suggests continued demand for single-family homes in Mill Valley, signaling a robust market for homeowners and sellers.
II. Time to Sell Properties:The average time it takes to sell a property is a crucial factor in understanding market dynamics and competitiveness. In Q2 2023, the time it took to sell both condominiums and single-family homes in Mill Valley remained relatively stable compared to Q1 2023.
For condominiums, the average time to sell remained unchanged at 45 days in both Q1 and Q2. This suggests a consistent level of buyer interest and a well-balanced market for condominiums in Mill Valley. Sellers in this segment experienced a steady pace of transactions, with properties typically selling within a relatively short timeframe.
Similarly, the average time to sell single-family homes in Mill Valley also remained steady at 50 days in both Q1 and Q2. This stability indicates a balanced market for single-family homeowners, where supply and demand are relatively aligned. The consistent time to sell reflects the market's efficiency in matching buyers with available single-family homes.
III. Analysis of Market Performance:The Mill Valley real estate market in Q2 2023 compared to Q1 2023 demonstrates positive growth and stability. Both condominiums and single-family homes experienced an increase in median prices, indicating strong demand and a favorable market for sellers. The consistent time it took to sell properties suggests a well-functioning market with consistent buyer interest and a balanced supply of available properties.
The increase in median prices for condominiums and single-family homes signifies the desirability of Mill Valley as a residential destination. Factors such as the town's picturesque natural surroundings, proximity to urban centers like San Francisco, and excellent schools contribute to its attractiveness. These factors, combined with limited housing inventory, support the upward trajectory of median prices.
Additionally, the stable time it takes to sell properties indicates that the Mill Valley market remains robust and competitive. Buyers continue to actively seek properties in the area, leading to relatively swift transactions and a healthy pace of sales.
IV. Factors Influencing Market Performance:Several factors contribute to the performance of the Mill Valley real estate market. Firstly, the town's desirable location, nestled among redwood forests and close to San Francisco, makes it an attractive destination for homeowners seeking natural beauty and urban conveniences. This factor alone can drive demand and support the upward trend in median prices.
Furthermore, limited housing inventory plays a significant role in market dynamics. Mill Valley's topography, strict zoning regulations, and preservation efforts contribute to a scarcity of available properties. The limited supply compared to the demand puts upward pressure on prices, creating a competitive market for buyers.
Lastly, economic factors such as low mortgage interest rates and a strong local economy can influence market performance. Favorable financial conditions encourage buyers to enter the market and increase their purchasing power, leading to increased demand for properties in Mill Valley.
Conclusion:The Mill Valley, CA real estate market demonstrated positive growth and stability in Q2 2023 compared to Q1 2023. Median prices for both condominiums and single-family homes experienced notable increases, indicating strong demand and a favorable market for sellers. The time it took to sell properties remained relatively stable, suggesting a well-functioning and competitive market. Factors such as the town's desirable location, limited housing inventory, and favorable economic conditions contribute to the market's positive performance. These trends suggest that the Mill Valley real estate market remains an attractive investment opportunity for buyers and sellers alike in Q2 2023.
The Larkspur, CA real estate market is an essential sector that provides insights into the local economy and housing trends. This analysis aims to evaluate the performance of the Larkspur real estate market in the second quarter of 2023 (Q2) compared to the first quarter of 2023 (Q1). The analysis will focus on two key metrics: the median price for both condominiums and single-family homes and the average time it takes to sell properties.
I. Median Prices for Condominiums and Single-Family Homes:The median price of properties is a crucial indicator of market performance. In Q2 2023, the median price for condominiums in Larkspur experienced a notable increase compared to Q1 2023. According to Zillow data, the median price for condominiums in Q2 stood at $1,800,000, representing a 6% increase from the median price of $1,700,000 in Q1. This upward trend indicates a strong demand for condominiums in Larkspur, potentially driven by factors such as location, amenities, and lifestyle offerings.
Similarly, the median price for single-family homes also saw an upward trajectory in Q2 2023. The median price for single-family homes in Q2 rose to $2,950,000, exhibiting a 4% increase from the median price of $2,830,000 in Q1. This price appreciation suggests continued demand for single-family homes in Larkspur, signaling a robust market for homeowners and sellers.
II. Time to Sell Properties:The average time it takes to sell a property is a crucial factor in understanding market dynamics and competitiveness. In Q2 2023, the time it took to sell both condominiums and single-family homes in Larkspur experienced slight changes compared to Q1 2023.
For condominiums, the average time to sell increased from 50 days in Q1 to 55 days in Q2. This slight increase indicates a relatively stable market for condominiums in Larkspur. Sellers may have experienced a slightly longer wait time to find buyers for their condominiums, suggesting a more balanced market compared to the previous quarter.
Similarly, the average time to sell single-family homes in Larkspur increased from 60 days in Q1 to 65 days in Q2. This modest increase may reflect a slightly more balanced market for single-family homes, with buyers taking a bit longer to make purchasing decisions. However, it is important to note that the time to sell for both property types in Larkspur remained relatively low, indicating continued buyer interest and a relatively efficient market.
III. Analysis of Market Performance:The Larkspur real estate market in Q2 2023 compared to Q1 2023 demonstrates positive growth and stability. Both condominiums and single-family homes experienced an increase in median prices, indicating strong demand and a favorable market for sellers. Although the time to sell properties increased slightly, it remained relatively low, suggesting sustained buyer interest and an efficient market.
The increase in median prices for condominiums and single-family homes suggests the desirability of Larkspur as a residential location. Factors such as its picturesque natural surroundings, proximity to urban centers like San Francisco, and quality schools contribute to its attractiveness. Limited housing inventory relative to demand can also support upward price pressure, creating a competitive market.
The slight increase in the time it takes to sell properties indicates a market that is finding a balance between supply and demand. Buyers in Larkspur may be taking slightly longer to make purchasing decisions, potentially due to increased consideration or market conditions. However, the relatively low average time to sell properties suggests that sellers are still able to find buyers within a reasonable timeframe.
IV. Factors Influencing Market Performance:Several factors contribute to the performance of the Larkspur real estate market. The town's appealing location, surrounded by nature and close to urban amenities, attracts buyers seeking a balanced lifestyle. Limited housing inventory in the area creates a sense of exclusivity and can contribute to price appreciation.
Additionally, macroeconomic factors such as low mortgage interest rates and a strong local economy can influence market performance. Favorable financial conditions encourage buyers to enter the market and increase their purchasing power, driving demand for properties in Larkspur.
Conclusion:The Larkspur, CA real estate market demonstrated positive growth and stability in Q2 2023 compared to Q1 2023. Median prices for both condominiums and single-family homes experienced notable increases, indicating strong demand and a favorable market for sellers. Although the time it took to sell properties increased slightly, it remained relatively low, suggesting continued buyer interest and an efficient market. Factors such as the town's desirable location, limited housing inventory, and favorable economic conditions contribute to the market's positive performance. These trends suggest that the Larkspur real estate market remains an attractive investment opportunity for buyers and sellers alike in Q2 2023.
Here are the top 10 most expensive recent sales in Tiburon, CA:
1. 2900 Paradise Dr, Tiburon, CA 94920 - Sold for $20,000,000. 10 bedrooms, 9 bathrooms, 12,060 sqft
2. 1860 Mountain View Dr, Tiburon, CA 94920 - Sold for $17,500,000. 4 bedrooms, 5 bathrooms, 4,470 sqft
3. 1960 Straits View Dr, Tiburon, CA 94920 - Sold for $15,043,000. 6 bedrooms, 7 bathrooms, 10,365 sqft
4. 3 Via Paraiso W, Belvedere Tiburon, CA 94920 - Sold for $12,175,000. 6 bedrooms, 7 bathrooms, 8,500 sqft
5. 106 Mount Tiburon Rd, Belvedere Tiburon, CA 94920 - Sold for $12,000,000. 5 bedrooms, 7 bathrooms, 7,644 sqft
6. 1925 Straits View Dr, Tiburon, CA 94920 - Sold for $10,000,000. 4 bedrooms, 5 bathrooms, 5,400 sqft
7. 4 Santa Ana Ct, Tiburon, CA 94920 - Sold for $9,872,000. 5 bedrooms, 7 bathrooms, 7,230 sqft
8. 1910 Straits View Dr, Tiburon, CA 94920 - Sold for $9,600,000. 5 bedrooms, 6 bathrooms, 6,380 sqft
9. 134 Lyford Dr, Tiburon, CA 94920 - Sold for $9,277,000. 7 bedrooms, 6 bathrooms, 7,487 sqft
10. 130 Lyford Dr, Belvedere Tiburon, CA 94920 - Sold for $9,277,000
If you're in the market to buy a home in Tiburon, book a call in my calendar below and I can run you through current market conditions.
Jerry Rice Jr. stands out as a beacon of professionalism and dedication in his field. With a rich background in football, Jerry has seamlessly transitioned his skills and work ethic from the gridiron to the world of real estate.