San Rafael real estate in Q3 of 2022
Marin County intimately felt what the rest of the country has been feeling this past quarter; a drastic slow down in sales, sales prices deflating, supply of homes on-market rising, and time on-market to sell homes is increasing. All reflections of a shifting market.
Sales in September '22 were down 32% compared to September '21.
Days on market (time to sell a home) are up 16%.
Months supply of homes on market is UP 30%.
We've been heavily accustomed to a strong sellers market, but recent macro-economic events have swung Marin into a more normalized market comparative to traditional markets all over the country, if not putting power in buyer's hands. If you've been waiting to buy a home, now is seemingly the best time to buy property since '09.
The Condominium Market
San Rafael's condo market was one of few market segments across the county that actually grew in Q3. 31x total sales saw the average price up to $735k from $678k last quarter. $/foot up to $619 from $595, and days on market decreasing from 61 to 46.
The Median Market
Similar to other median markets across Marin, demand for turn-key homes remains extremely high in San Rafael. The average price for a home continues to rise: up to $1.66M from from $1.61M after 101 sales in Q3, and days on market remaining steady at ~ 30.
The Luxury Market
San Rafael's luxury market dipped slightly, seeing only 7x sales after averaging 17x per quarter leading into Q3. The average price for a luxury property sits at $3.2M, after climbing as high as $3.7M earlier in the year.
Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter
With interest rates rising seemingly month after month, and Thanksgiving & The Holidays on the horizon, Q4 doesn’t project well as the turn of this market.
Instead, given the current trends, Q4 should be viewed by buyers as one of the most opportunistic times to buy property in the past decade. Most seller’s opting to try and sell in this market are doing so out of necessity, and it’s worth remembering that most sellers have seen 50-60% appreciation over the past 5 years which allows for significant wiggle room on final sales price should buyers get the opportunity to negotiate rather than a be in a multiple offer situation.
I anticipate the Fall market to run from October 1st through ~ Thanksgiving, then we’ll see a significant lull in listings on the market, sales volume, etc.