The Northside of San Francisco is a real estate market like few others on earth. The most desirable neighborhoods in one of the most desirable cities in the country seem to create that bubble within a bubble effect. Q1 picked up right where it left off after a record-breaking 2021.

It now costs $1,750,000 to enter the condominium market between North Beach, Russian Hill, Cow Hollow & Marina.

The median market took an aggressive turn for the worst, trending down from a $5M average in '21 to $4.2M (pending type of house, size, obviously).

The luxury market (homes $1M above the median) saw 3x sales above $5.8M, all taking less than 2 weeks to sell. Demand remains sky high for Northside homes.

The Condominium Market

It now costs north of $1,750,000 to own a condo on the Northside. Prices keep climbing despite signs of macro-market slow down. The demand for condos actually increased in Q1, averaging just 25 days on market for property to move, and almost $1,300/foot.

The Median Market

For the purposes of defining the line between the median market & the luxury market, $1,000,000 above or below the median at the time of this report is considered the market for a median home, whereas anything $1M above or greater tends to correlate better to the luxury market.

The median single family home market dipped in Q1, with more than half the number of total sales last year happening, at almost $1,000,000 below where homes were selling last year. Price per foot didn't dip as heavily as average sales price, indicating demand remained high, homes were just smaller in size.

Framed by supply issues - there just aren’t many median single families in the Northside neighborhoods - The Northside median market will always be a low-supply, high-demand (in theory) market pocket.

The Luxury Market

The nuances of the luxury market will be forever interesting in San Francisco.

One year you see an average of 8 figures for a luxury property, the next, a $5,000,000 price drop.

One year it takes three months to sell a home, the next, barely 2 weeks.

Bottom line, there is always a buyer for a luxury property in this market, and there will always be major fluctuations based on the homes available at any given time.

Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter

With interest rates on the rise and the macro Bay Area feeling the pinch, it's logical to think Northside SF neighborhoods will see buyers more hesitant to spend what they've been spending these past few years.

While true, this pocket of San Francisco tends to be the most protected from macro events. Real estate here is so low in supply, and all it takes is a cheap face-lift to serve a turn-key property on a silver platter to willing and able buyers, and turn-key here historically sells quickly in any market.

I anticipate the median condo market will be affected most over the next quarter, beginning the trend toward a declining real estate market with 6 rate hikes on the horizon between now and Q4 2023. However, I don’t necessarily think we’ll see falling prices, just a falling growth rate.