The Marin real estate market shifted into new territory in Q1, shedding the weight of the drastic rate-hike market and re-balancing itself into a more normalized market comparative to the rest of the country.

Typical markets see homes sitting for 21-30 days before selling, with the best turnkey properties being the ones attracting the most attention and selling above asking. Although Marin has seldom operated in parallel with 'normal', it seems we're now getting a taste of it.

Properties priced right & presented well are still moving quickly, but anything less-than turnkey, especially if it's priced inline with a 3% rate market rather than today's rates, DOM will accumulate. With higher rates we are seeing monthly payment affordability issues & pricing needs to reflect this.

Condo Market

The condominium market was mostly non-existent in Q1. 2 total sales averaging below $1M is the lowest activity we've seen in this market segment in a while.

Buyers looking for entry-level condominiums are typically impacted most when rates double, leaving most of the lower-valued condominium market in Belvedere-Tiburon unaffordable.

Condos across the board have seen a decline in demand, too. 6.5% rates coupled with mostly high monthly HOA payments rendering the monthly cost of ownership in the 5-figure range for most-all condominiums listed.

At the time of this report, there are 3x condos in the contract above 1.3M, which will balance out the YTD sales data once closed.

Median Market

Median home sales in Tiburon were as bleak as we've seen in recent memory. 4x sales were recorded at an average of $2.9M, well below the 2022 $4.1M average sale.

Similar to above, at the time of this report there are 6 houses in contract, 4x of which will close above ~$3.5M, which will result in an average closer to 3.4M over 8+ sales, still well below 2022. This trend will be seen across the board with affordability issues massively affecting the trade-up market, which is the majority of the buyer pool in the $3-4M range for single-family homes in Tiburon.

Luxury Market

Only one property sold above $4M in Tiburon this quarter, and it sold 200k below asking after sitting on the market for over a month is indicative of what we're seeing in luxury markets around the Bay Area.

Affordability above $4M is assumed to be more cash-buyer dominant, which is true, but savvy buyers always leverage their assets with borrowed capital, and the cost of that capital has jumped, limiting the demand for expensive homes.

Belvedere-Tiburon is a top-tier luxury market around the Bay, on par with Atherton & Palo Alto, which have shown pricing resilience throughout this higher-rate market. But at a point, buyers just don't want to buy, and that's what we saw in Q1.

The general theme of macro-economic activity is more-of-the-same. We're seeing a steady diet of stress events like Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and the sell off of others, First Republic flailed for a moment which caused the entire real estate market to hold it's breath (FR is San Francisco's leading residential mortgage lender), and tech companies are laying off employees and axing non-revenue generating business activity, all typical during periods of tightening.

Also, the fed raises rates again at the turn of Q2 by 25bp and plans of doing this a few more times. However, and this is a BIG however, California is a sunshine state. People don't go to open houses in the rain (we're ridiculous, yes). With the sun back out, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a flurry of activity.

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If you have any questions, text me.

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