Q4 highlighted the growing concern that the market couldn't maintain such rapid rate of growth in Mill Valley Days on market steadily increased, sales values steadily dropped off, and the market was left reeling after an explosive pandemic period.

The condominium market saw 12 sales record more than $100,000 below the yearly average. Mill Valley's condo market was driven up throughout the pandemic as the <$1M buyer raced away from San Francisco in all directions. Q4 seems to have signified a correction, at least in the condominium market.

The median single family market was down almost $500,000, and the luxury market doubled the amount of time it took to sell a home. Mill Valley was moving at a breakneck pace all 2020 and through summer '21, but began to show signs of a correction in Q3 of '21. This can more than likely be attributed to an oversupplied market. Everyone wanted to capitalize on the gold rush, so more properties were listed than we would see in a regular year (497 in 2021 vs. 410 in 2019).

While desirability in Mill Valley remains high, the market was over supplied toward the end of 2021, as everyone tried to capitalize on the insatiable demand we had been seeing since early 2020. Less desirable listings trying to sell for peak market pricing was the main contributor to deflated market values in Q4.

The key statistics we will use to objectify market data are as follows:

Total Number of House Sales In Q4: 77

Average Monthly Sales In 2021: 3

Average Sale Price Of Houses In Q4: $2,335,000

Average Sale Price In 2021: $2,487,000

Mill Valley’s Avg Price Per Square Foot Sold (all property types):

Average Sale Price Of Condominiums In Q4: $852,000

Average Sale Price In 2021: $991,000

Average Days On Market in Q4 (all): 32

Months of Supply (total active listings/monthly sales rate): 0.3

Average Supply in 2021: 0.8

General sentiment from agents: Mill Valley had one of the steepest gains of any neighborhood Bay Area wide throughout the pandemic, leading to an undersupplied market with fewer and fewer desirable properties coming as the year came to a close.

Buyer demand is still sky high, but certainly less than it was when everyone was racing to evacuate San Francisco looking for relative proximity and serene beauty. Desirable properties will still move quickly, but we might have passed the peak, at least for now.

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