Q4 in Tiburon

Q4 was a coup de grâce for what was the obvious turning point of a bull market. The downturn affected each and every pocket in the real estate sector, and few neighborhoods/areas were spared. For the first time in over a decade, the Marin real estate market shifted from a seller's market to a buyer’s market.

There are more deals available in Marin county than I've seen in my entire career. Single-family homes sitting on the market for 90 days plus, condominiums seeing little to no desirability in places, and the luxury market took one of the biggest hits in the nation.

Beautiful turn-key properties are still selling well. There will always be a market for location + turn-key, but anything less than that might need to consider remodels prior to listing in Spring '23.

The Condominium Market

Similar to surrounding markets, the Tiburon condominium market mostly fell off a cliff in Q4 with a rising interest rate environment affecting affordability. Condominium buyers are heavily rate-conscious which makes this market segment highly susceptive to immediate downturns when rates rise.

While the average price of a condominium went unchanged, the sheer lack of sales volume is indicative of Bay Area real estate desirability as a whole. Sellers will need to meet buyer expectations in order to achieve a successful sale. Luckily, most owners 82%+) have owned since 2020 or before with significant equity reserves to tap into should a sale be an immediate need. Offering a turn-key, the updated unit is the fastest way to sell in a recessive market.

The Median Market

The Tiburon median home market performed well in the face of rising interest rates in Q4, with 9 sales recording at a similar $/foot as we have been seeing all year. While the average price for a home dropped by ~ $700,000, price per foot is traditionally the best indicator to assess the market quarter over quarter. Median homes were selling for $1,259/foot in Q4 compared to $1,210 throughout all of 2022, highlighting that buyers are still willing to pay what sellers have been asking. The time it takes to sell a home only increased by a handful of days in the final quarter of the year, too. Demand is still high.

Given the median market is typically undersupplied, securing a home for < $4,000,000 in Tiburon is a tall order, giving leverage to homeowners trying to sell for top dollar.

The Luxury Market

The luxury market for a home in Tiburon, unfortunately, saw a massive decline in Q4, with average prices dropping by almost $1,800,000 compared to the rest of the year. Although only 3 sales were recorded compared to 25 all year, the unspoken data point missed here is the sheer number of homes that didn't sell or were pulled from the market.

The Bay Area's luxury market as a whole plummeted in Q3&4 as macroeconomic conditions wreaked havoc on the real estate market. One of the biggest drivers for luxury home sales has traditionally been proximity to San Francisco, however the drastic decline in office desirability heightened WFH culture, and an increase in cost-of-capital has deterred high-price point buyers from pulling the trigger.

Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter

Q1 will set the tone for the coming year more so than any other quarter in recent memory. The entirety of the real estate community is sitting on the edge of our seats eagerly hoping for a strong sales quarter and a renewed confidence that we've seen the worst of the correction. With rates already decreasing toward the tail end of Q4, it seems like we've already experienced the bottom of the market.

I could easily see a full year of price stagnancy in 2023, with property values staying mostly level with the prices we're seeing now, down < 10% from the Q1 "22 peaks. Prices across Marin were appreciating at 15-20% year over year during COVID, which was an absolutely absurd pace.

We are now in a buyer's market. There are more opportunities in the market for the savvy than ever before.

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