The Marin real estate market shifted into new territory in Q1, shedding the weight of the drastic rate-hike market and re-balancing itself into a more normalized market comparative to the rest of the country.

Typical markets see homes sitting for 21-30 days before selling, with the best turnkey properties being the ones attracting the most attention and selling above asking. Although Marin has seldom operated in parallel with 'normal', it seems we're now getting a taste of it.

Properties priced right & presented well are still moving quickly, but anything less-than turnkey, especially if it's priced inline with a 3% rate market rather than today's rates, DOM will accumulate. With higher rates we are seeing monthly payment affordability issues & pricing needs to reflect this.

Condo Market

The condominium market in Larkspur was non-existent in Q1; 0 sales.

Typically we only see a small handful of condominium sales in Larkspur, but rarely does an entire quarter pass without a sale.

Affordability in the condominium market has swung drastically since last Summer. Buyers are looking at monthly payments somewhere in the ballpark of double what they used to be last year. Sellers haven't been willing to drop prices to accommodate for this carrying cost, so the market has stalled.

Sellers will need to bite the bullet and accept that their condo is worth less in this market than they'd like. Luckily, if they bought before 2020, there's a ton of equity to pull out of the sale.

Median Market

The median housing market in Larkspur saw only 1 property sale in Q1 of '23.

The average price for a single-family home raced to $2.8M in 2022. I remember when I started tracking Larkspur at a $2.15M avg. in the Summer of 2020 and thought this town had a unique vibe that was undervalued. Fast-forward a few years and values are up 650k.

The single sale closed for $2.585M in just 6 days, highlighting that desirability for turnkey single-family homes is still sky-high in Larkspur.

Luxury Market

Only one luxury property traded hands in Q1 '23; selling for $3,865,000 in 7 days.

Yes; they're weren't that many homes listed. Yes, the luxury market varies quite a bit between property type and size. The fact is there are significantly fewer buyers for $3m+ properties Bay Area-wide, and those buyers tend to concentrate closely on traditional luxury markets when the economy shifts.

Buyers at this price point are assumed to be more cash dominant, which is true, but savvy buyers always leverage their assets with borrowed capital, and the cost of that capital has jumped, limiting the demand for expensive homes.

The general theme of macro-economic activity is more-of-the-same. We're seeing a steady diet of stress events like Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and the sell off of others, First Republic flailed for a moment which caused the entire real estate market to hold it's breath (FR is San Francisco's leading residential mortgage lender), and tech companies are laying off employees and axing non-revenue generating business activity, all typical during periods of tightening.

Also, the fed raises rates again at the turn of Q2 by 25bp and plans of doing this a few more times. However, and this is a BIG however, California is a sunshine state. People don't go to open houses in the rain (we're ridiculous, yes). With the sun back out, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a flurry of activity.

Learn more about Larkspur

If you have any questions, text me.

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