The Larkspur real estate market performed well in Q1, even though the value increases were smaller than we've been accustomed to seeing over the past 20 odd months.

The condominium market median value increased by almost 50k in Q1, nearing an $800k average price point for the first time. There are early warning signs of the market slowing, however, with days on market continually climbing since roughly October of ‘21.

The median market for single family homes was undersupplied most of Q1, with only 7 sales recording. As I’m writing this (4/15), there is zero active inventory on the market. With the Spring market ramping up, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a handful of homes hit the market any day now. While the median price dropped, buyer demand certainly has not. Turn-key homes in Larkspur will command attention.

The luxury market only saw 1 sale at $3,750,000. Desirable homes with seclusion/privacy and a nice finish package continue to be highly sought after.

The Condominium Market

The Larkspur condo market was stable in Q1. The average price has been steadily trending upward since the pandemic began. It will cost you $800,000 on average to buy a condo in Larkspur these days. The condominium market really jumped in late ‘20, being seen as an ‘affordable’ (and desirable) option for buyers fleeing San Francisco.  Throughout most of 2021, the average price

Days on market are continually increasing, indicating a downward trend is on the horizon.

The Median Market

For the purposes of defining the line between the median market & the luxury market, $1,000,000 above or below the median at the time of this report is considered the market for a median home, whereas anything $1M above or greater tends to correlate better to the luxury market.

The median dropped significantly in Q1, with only 7 sales hitting the books at an average of $2,260,000. After a white-hot '21 market where the median crept to ~ $2,500,000, the market had to cool eventually. This value dip seems to be due to supply rather than demand. There are currently 0 listings available at the median price point which is indicative of Q1 as a whole; few listings to choose from and healthy funded buyers are choosing to wait for more turn-key homes than what has been available over the turn of the year. Regardless of interest rates creeping up and buying power being pulled out of the market, the typical buyer profile we’ve seen buying homes in Larkspur is mostly protected from fluctuations in macroeconomics, which should lead to a more stable market than other markets in Marin County.

The Luxury Market

The luxury market barely moved in Q1; 1 sale at $3,750,000. Similar to the median market, the supply has been the main driver of market conditions, rather than a lowered demand. Buyers are still highly valuing easy access to San Francisco, larger living and outdoor spaces, giving Southern Marin somewhat of a golden ticket to value protection moving through the unknown ahead.

Projecting Ahead To Q2

Larkspur will always hold its value well. Limited housing supply coupled with location, access to SF as well as to Mt. Tam and beyond, it's hard to see a dip in demand.

With 5 to 6 rate increases projected to be on the horizon between now and the end of 2023, it's feasible to expect the condominium and lower median markets to be significantly affected. Buying power will greatly diminish for buyers around the median. A move of just 0.5% can increase the monthly payment dues by $1,000 to low-thousands of dollars. That's significant, and people shopping in the $1,000,000 price point are seeing their purchasing power diminish rapidly.

Luckily, most of the Marin market is insulated from macro-trends to a degree. The typical buyer a healthy downpayment, or has access to capital to help fund a real estate purchase

While it's hard to see a decrease in demand, I anticipate this Summer might be the final feeding frenzy before a declining market.

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