Q3 in Tiburon

Marin County intimately felt what the rest of the country has been feeling this past quarter; a drastic slow down in sales, sales prices deflating, supply of homes on-market rising, and time on-market to sell homes is increasing. All reflections of a shifting market.

Sales in September '22 were down 32% compared to September '21. Days on market (time to sell a home) are up 16%. Months supply of homes on market is UP 30%.

We've been heavily accustomed to a strong sellers market, but recent macro-economic events have swung Marin into a more normalized market comparative to traditional markets all over the country, if not putting power in buyer's hands. If you've been waiting to buy a home, now is seemingly the best time to buy property since '09.

The Condominium Market

Condominiums in Tiburon have been selling consistently throughout the year, averaging 12+ sales per quarter at ~$1.5M per unit. Although the time it takes to sell a property; up to 39 from 35, is slowly rising quarter over quarter, most properties are still selling.

The Median Market

Similar to most Marin median markets, Tiburon median property value actually grew in Q3. The average price for a median home jumped to $4.1M from $3.65M in previous quarters over 8x sales. Total sales volume is drastically down, however, as previous quarters averaged 30x sales per. This is indicative of the general buyer market being more hesitant than ever given macro-economic conditions.

The Luxury Market

Tiburon saw 7x luxury estate sales in Q3, similar to its traditional quarterly average of ~12x sales. The average price jumped from $6.8M to $7.5M, and the time it's taking to sell such estates has dropped to 18 days from 30. There is seemingly always a market for luxury properties in 1st-Tier Bay Area locations.

Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter

With interest rates rising seemingly month after month, and Thanksgiving & The Holidays on the horizon, Q4 doesn’t project well as the turn of this market.

Instead, given the current trends, Q4 should be viewed by buyers as one of the most opportunistic times to buy property in the past decade. Most seller’s opting to try and sell in this market are doing so out of necessity, and it’s worth remembering that most sellers have seen 50-60% appreciation over the past 5 years which allows for significant wiggle room on final sales price should buyers get the opportunity to negotiate rather than a be in a multiple offer situation.

I anticipate the Fall market to run from October 1st through ~ Thanksgiving, then we’ll see a significant lull in listings on the market, sales volume, etc.

‍