Q4 was a coup de grâce for what was the obvious turning point of a bull market. The downturn affected each and every pocket in the real estate sector, and few neighborhoods/areas were spared. For the first time in over a decade, the Marin real estate market shifted from a seller's market to a buyer's market.

There are more deals available in Marin county than I've seen in my entire career. Single-family homes sitting on the market for 90 days plus, condominiums seeing little to no desirability in places, and the luxury market took one of the biggest hits in the nation.

Beautiful turn-key properties are still selling well. There will always be a market for location + turn-key, but anything less-than might need to consider a remodel prior to listing in Spring '23.

The Median Market

The median market in Fairfax took the biggest hit out of all market segments with prices dropping by $200,000 on average. Traditionally we see a falloff in the final quarter of the year, but his years' trends suggest a stronger narrative; buyer affordability and demand are significantly below where they have been in recent years.

With decreasing affordability, buyers are shifting their focus heavily to turn-key. Additional costs after purchase are as undesirable in this market as they ever have been, and it's in a homeowners’ best interests to take the time to update & enhance their properties ahead of time to ensure a turn-key property is presented to the market.

Bidding wars still exist for a select few homes presented well and priced in line with the market.

The Luxury Market

The luxury home market in Fairfax saw little activity in the final quarter of 2022 with only 1 sale recording at $3,000,000, 2 listings pulled from the market, and another still active at the turn of the new year.

Traditionally, Fairfax has seen an undersupplied luxury market given the relatively small amount of homes in the area. Buyers in these price points have drastically fallen off county-wide, but also are seeing a plethora of homes to choose from throughout Southern Marin making it challenging to see a strong luxury market in Fairfax going into 2023.

Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter

Q1 will set the tone for the coming year more so than any other quarter in recent memory. The entirety of the real estate community is sitting on the edge of our seats eagerly hoping for a strong sales quarter and a renewed confidence that we've seen the worst of the correction. With rates already decreasing toward the tail end of Q4, it seems like we've already experienced the bottom of the market.

I could easily see a full year of price stagnancy in 2023, with property values staying mostly level with the prices we're seeing now, down < 10% from the Q1 "22 peaks. Prices across Marin were appreciating at 15-20% year over year during COVID, which was an absolutely absurd pace.

We are now in a buyer's market. There are more opportunities in the market for the savvy than ever before.

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