The Marin real estate market shifted into new territory in Q1, shedding the weight of the drastic rate-hike market and re-balancing itself into a more normalized market comparative to the rest of the country.

Typical markets see homes sitting for 21-30 days before selling, with the best turnkey properties being the ones attracting the most attention and selling above asking. Although Marin has seldom operated in parallel with 'normal', it seems we're now getting a taste of it.

Properties priced right & presented well are still moving quickly, but anything less-than turnkey, especially if it's priced inline with a 3% rate market rather than today's rates, DOM will accumulate. With higher rates we are seeing monthly payment affordability issues & pricing needs to reflect this.

Condo Market

The average price of a condominium in Mill Valley increased by $87,000 in Q1, starkly different from the performance of all surrounding condo markets.

Ironically, the price per foot decreased by over $200/foot, indicating the size of the condominiums sold over the 5x sales to record in Q1 were larger than average.

$sqft is much more relevant in the condominium markets than for single-family homes and can be generally used to assess the desirability of the condo market when comparing periods.

We've seen affordability be massively affected in recent months, and buyers in the condominium market are typically most affected by increased rates.

‍Median Market

The average price for a property in Mill Valley's single-family market dropped by $450,000 in Q1 '23, took almost twice as long to sell, and less than half of a typical sales volume sold.

The median home market took a nose dive, but fortunately (or unfortunately) this wasn't too different from the surrounding neighborhoods. Mill Valley & San Rafael have the highest volume of sales in Marin in any given quarter, and both saw a massive decline in overall sales, highlighting the affordability issues sweeping the market.

Sales in Mill Valley were as bleak as we've seen them in recent memory, recording only 18 total sales in Q1. Traditionally we see 45-60 sales per quarter in MV. Entry-level and median buyers are the first affected by rising rates.

Luxury Market

Only 2 properties sold above $4.5M in Mill Valley this quarter. Sale prices remained steady in the luxury market, but the drop in volume is indicative of what we're seeing in the rest of the market.

Affordability above $4M is assumed to be more cash-buyer dominant, which is true, but savvy buyers always leverage their assets with borrowed capital, and the cost of that capital has jumped, decreasing the demand for expensive homes.

Mill Valley is a top-tier luxury market around the Bay, on par with Tiburon, Atherton & Palo Alto, which have shown pricing resilience throughout this higher-rate market. But at a point, buyers just don't want to buy, and that's what we saw in Q1.

The general theme of macro-economic activity is more-of-the-same. We're seeing a steady diet of stress events like Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and the sell off of others, First Republic flailed for a moment which caused the entire real estate market to hold it's breath (FR is San Francisco's leading residential mortgage lender), and tech companies are laying off employees and axing non-revenue generating business activity, all typical during periods of tightening.

Also, the fed raises rates again at the turn of Q2 by 25bp and plans of doing this a few more times. However, and this is a BIG however, California is a sunshine state. People don't go to open houses in the rain (we're ridiculous, yes). With the sun back out, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a flurry of activity.

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If you have any questions, text me.

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