Q4 was a coup de grâce for what was the obvious turning point of a bull market. The downturn affected each and every pocket in the real estate sector, and few neighborhoods/areas were spared. For the first time in over a decade, the Marin real estate market shifted from a seller's market to a buyer’s market.

There are more deals available in Marin county than I've seen in my entire career. Single-family homes sitting on the market for 90 days plus, condominiums seeing little to no desirability in places, and the luxury market took one of the biggest hits in the nation.

Beautiful turn-key properties are still selling well. There will always be a market for location + turn-key, but anything less than that might need to consider a remodels prior to listing in Spring '23.

The Condominium Market

The condominium market in Mill Valley performed well in Q4 considering the obvious desirability swing. Condominiums are usually the first micro-pocket of the real estate market to be effective in downward trends, as entry-level buyers are the most rate conscious. HOA fees become a burden, and certain HOA communities with high fees become almost unattainable.

However, Q4 showed a strong rebound from the floor of the market with 11 total sales selling above a $1m average each. Although it took an additional two weeks per sale, I'm sure sellers were happy to get their units sold.

Expect a similarly positioned market in Q1 of '23.

The Median Market

Although there was a slight dip in price in Q4, the Mill Valley median market is still one of the best-performing markets in the Bay Area, if not the country. Mill Valley's desirability hit all-time highs in the early days of the pandemic due to its proximity to San Francisco coupled with its natural beauty.

With roughly a quarter of this year’s sales closing in Q4 at an average of $2,447,000, there were still obvious signs of desirability no matter the macro-market conditions. Homes were still selling in under a month on average, a state that not many other markets can match.

With such low inventory at any given time combine with seemingly peak demand, I would anticipate Q1 to look very similar to last year.

The Luxury Market

The luxury market was massively impacted in Q4, which is typical of luxury markets in downturns. The average price for a luxury property in Mill Valley dropped by $800,000 with 9 homes selling significantly below the 2022 average.

However, with an average of only 38 days on market, it's safe to assume there is still a significantly strong demand for luxury homes in Mill Valley.

With no impending changes to corporate culture and San Francisco companies minimizing their office footprint, expect to see more executives seeking long-term solutions to their housing situation outside of the city. Mill Valley is positioned well to continue to attract affluent buyers.

Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter

Q1 will set the tone for the coming year more so than any other quarter in recent memory. The entirety of the real estate community is sitting on the edge of our seats eagerly hoping for a strong sales quarter and a renewed confidence that we've seen the worst of the correction. With rates already decreasing toward the tail end of Q4, it seems like we've already experienced the bottom of the market.

I could easily see a full year of price stagnancy in 2023, with property values staying mostly level with the prices we're seeing now, down < 10% from the Q1 "22 peaks. Prices across Marin were appreciating at 15-20% year over year during COVID, which was an absolutely absurd pace.

We are now in a buyer's market. There are more opportunities in the market for the savvy than ever before.

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