The Marin real estate market shifted into new territory in Q1, shedding the weight of the drastic rate-hike market and re-balancing itself into a more normalized market comparative to the rest of the country.

Typical markets see homes sitting for 21-30 days before selling, with the best turnkey properties being the ones attracting the most attention and selling above asking. Although Marin has seldom operated in parallel with 'normal', it seems we're now getting a taste of it.

Properties priced right & presented well are still moving quickly, but anything less-than turnkey, especially if it's priced inline with a 3% rate market rather than today's rates, DOM will accumulate. With higher rates we are seeing monthly payment affordability issues & pricing needs to reflect this.

Median Market

Single-family homes sold in San Anselmo saw a significant drop in value compared to 2022 as a whole; with a $1.41M avg. compared to a $2.05M average. 21 sales were recorded; a significant enough batch of data to theorize that the market has dramatically softened.

This is no surprise, and consistent across most other local markets, too. It's significantly more expensive to finance a home in Q2 of '23 than it has been in over a decade, which is leading buyers to have to reconsider their buying power.

Sellers hanging on to pre-6%-interest-rate pricing are being forced to adjust to a changing climate, too as less-than-turnkey, or priced incorrectly, are sitting on the market longer. Although DOM shows the same, this statistic only applies to homes sold. Overpriced homes haven't been selling.

Luxury Market

Luxury properties in San Anselmo are selling, on average for $892,000 less than they were in 2022. Bold headline, but true. Only 2 luxury price point homes sold in Q2, compared to an average of 6x per quarter in 2022, highlighting the significant drop in demand for $3M+ properties in the area.

One shining light in the data is the $/sqft similarities between the 2x luxury sales recorded in Q1 and all 22 from the previous year. The desirability of San Anselmo has never been questioned, something that $/sqft does a good job of highlighting.

With cash buyers seemingly sitting on their chips, and borrowers seeing massively increased monthly rates for any bank-borrowed capital, the luxury sector of the market doesn't have too many buyers floating around.

The general theme of macro-economic activity is more-of-the-same. We're seeing a steady diet of stress events like Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and the sell off of others, First Republic flailed for a moment which caused the entire real estate market to hold it's breath (FR is San Francisco's leading residential mortgage lender), and tech companies are laying off employees and axing non-revenue generating business activity, all typical during periods of tightening.

Also, the fed raises rates again at the turn of Q2 by 25bp and plans of doing this a few more times. However, and this is a BIG however, California is a sunshine state. People don't go to open houses in the rain (we're ridiculous, yes). With the sun back out, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a flurry of activity.

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