Q4 was a coup de grâce for what was the obvious turning point of a bull market. The downturn affected each and every pocket in the real estate sector, and few neighborhoods/areas were spared. For the first time in over a decade, the Marin real estate market shifted from a seller's market to a buyer’s market.

There are more deals available in Marin county than I've seen in my entire careSingle-familymily homes sitting on the market for 90 days plus, condominiums seeing little to no desirability in places, and the luxury market took one of the biggest hits in the nation.

Beautiful turn-key properties are still selling well. There will always be a market for location + turn-key, but anything less than that might need to consider remodels prior to listing in Spring '23.

The Condominium Market

The Larkspur condo market has been mostly non-existent since the pandemic boom we saw in 20/21. 3 sales were recorded in Q4 after only 5 sales in the previous 3 quarters of the year. The average price for a condominium dropped by 100k to $515,000, while the $/foot remained the same which implies the 3 sales were smaller units than what was sold previously.

Given the low supply of properties coupled with the relatively low cost of entry, the condominium market in Larkspur will always have buyer attention.

Updated condos will sell better than anything less-than turnkey. Tip; Get the HOA to approve a renovation and package that approval with your listing; buyers will know they can remodel & will start imagining their dream design while in the unit, even if you don't complete the remodel.

The Median Market

Median homes in Larkspur are still selling well despite the challenging rate environment that really took a stranglehold on Q4. 1/3 of the year’s sales were recorded in Q4, which to me implies buyers capitalized on the downward trending market.

Buyers have been waiting for prices to correct for years in Southern Marin, however, fewer buyers in the market/fewer multiple-offer situations seem to have been enough of a catalyst. The median price for a home in Larkspur went unchanged in Q4 at $2,800,000, while the $/foot actually increased, signaling demand is still strong.

The Luxury Market

The luxury home market in Larkspur saw little activity in the final quarter of 2022 with only 1 sale recording at $5,600,000, 2 listings pulled from the market, and another still active at the turn of the new year.

Traditionally, Larkspur has seen an undersupplied luxury market given the relatively small amount of homes in the area. Buyers in these price points have drastically fallen off county-wide, but also are seeing a wealth of options throughout Southern Marin making it challenging to see strong luxury marketing going into 2023.

Projecting Ahead To Next Month/Quarter

Q1 will set the tone for the coming year more so than any other quarter in recent memory. The entirety of the real estate community is sitting on the edge of our seats eagerly hoping for a strong sales quarter and a renewed confidence that we've seen the worst of the correction. With rates already decreasing toward the tail end of Q4, it seems like we've already experienced the bottom of the market.

I could easily see a full year of price stagnancy in 2023, with property values staying mostly level with the prices we're seeing now, down < 10% from the Q1 "22 peaks. Prices across Marin were appreciating at 15-20% year over year during COVID, which was an absolutely absurd pace.

We are now in a buyer's market. There are more opportunities in the market for the savvy than ever before.